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General Weather
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber I've been using 850hp winds not surface winds. Not sure why the difference in GFS forecasts. Note that NCEP and stormsurf both show 850hp wind forecasts with their ENSO analysis, so there may be a good reason for p
General Weather
Jump to new posts Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) by Mike Hauber @ 3 minutes 19 seconds ago

Originally Posted By: LockeI'm looking at the extended GFS at Tropical Tidbits and I can't see any Westerlies at 180E on either the 12Z or 18Z forecast at the timeframes you've mentioned. At best I can see some light Northerlies. Towards the end of
Weather Photography
Jump to new posts Re: Spring Weather Images 2017 by Skysthelimit @ 7 minutes 43 seconds ago

Awesome shot there Markus. I think you'd get away with filing that one under 'Dramatic Skies'. Looking forward to seeing what else you have to show. Actually theres a chance we both might see some sparks before the day is out. Heres hoping Thanks ag
NSW / ACT
Jump to new posts Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather by Kino @ 30 minutes 34 seconds ago

Originally Posted By: Wave RiderCheck out the lifted indexes on GFS though. Around -7 or -8 on Thursday, so could be pretty interesting if it is right. Decent little upper cold pool and low pressure system just out to sea as well. Hopefully it event
General Weather
Some interesting comparisons.... This time Oct 2016 Oct 2017 Oct 1998 Oct 1999
General Weather
Jump to new posts Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) by ColdFront @ 44 minutes 33 seconds ago

Well fancy that They are big mosquitoes in PNG Kino.
SE QLD / NE NSW
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato If a squall line does manage to form, it'll probably appear to move slower on radar. Hey Ken, do you mean that a squall line would actually move slower than discrete cells in this situation or are you talking about it
NSW / ACT
Jump to new posts Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather by Wave Rider @ 53 minutes 31 seconds ago

Check out the lifted indexes on GFS though. Around -7 or -8 on Thursday, so could be pretty interesting if it is right. Decent little upper cold pool and low pressure system just out to sea as well. Hopefully it eventuates. Strange how ACCESS doesn't
General Weather
Holy heck at the southern hemisphere - even the Atlantic! And can see that -PDO developing nicely, and the snail-trail left by Lan. Edit: looking more at Lan again; that's a 3c~ turnaround in a few days for SST's in that area. Impressive.
General Weather
Jump to new posts Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) by Raindammit @ 58 minutes 38 seconds ago

As of yesterday (or today seeing how this is issued by NOAA?):
NSW / ACT
Jump to new posts Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather by Kino @ Today at 15:53

NSW / ACT
Jump to new posts Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather by Kino @ Today at 15:49

I see that GFS was tipping severe storms Thursday; but looking at this AM's run of ACCESS-C I can't really see why. Defin surface low heading past but main danger area seems to be well to the south?
General Weather
Little wonder. Every model is now forecasting either a La Nina or close enough so as not to matter.
General Weather
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrusSay what? Eastern Australia is almost completely influenced by La Nina pacific derived moisture and that is why we've seen incredible rainfall this October east of the divide. Anyway, La Nina watch it is. Agr
General Weather
Jump to new posts Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) by mammatus meestrus @ Today at 15:16

Say what? Eastern Australia is almost completely influenced by La Nina pacific derived moisture and that is why we've seen incredible rainfall this October east of the divide. Anyway, La Nina watch it is.
General Weather
La Niņa WATCH activated The El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, making the chance of a La Niņa forming in late 2017 at least 50%; around double the normal
General Weather
We are now at La Nina Watch.
SE QLD / NE NSW
I'd settle for a great squall line, but at this point I'm not convinced we'll see anything much at all.
Marine
Jump to new posts Re: Crocs by desieboy @ Today at 14:52

Have a look at this big bad boy that is Matt Wright so called pet. 17ft Croc
General Weather
BoM update sure is late....guess it's 'business as usual then'; warnings are always late too ha ha
South Australia
pitter-patter!
General Weather
Originally Posted By: Chris StumerBOM could be erring on the side of caution too, normally a strong El Nino precedes a La Nina although in 1954 La Nina formed without a preceding El Nino. We had a MEGA El Nino 2 years ago? Last year wasn't really
General Weather
BOM could be erring on the side of caution too, normally a strong El Nino precedes a La Nina although in 1954 La Nina formed without a preceding El Nino.
South Australia
Some nice smelling rain at Brighton 😀
General Weather
Business as usual. I do not think an offical La Nina will form.
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