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Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Jump to new posts Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 by Long Road Home @ 20/02/2019 19:02

I would be ditching the models and just follow the Bris forecast if I lived up that way. One of 100 scenarios all possible.
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Jump to new posts Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 by Inclement Weather @ 20/02/2019 19:01

Originally Posted By: StephenOriginally Posted By: Steve OYea and it will no doubt change again in the next 48hrs. Isn't it just great that it's on a knifes edge. Just want the inclement weather. Haha agree. Hope it changes for our benefit. At leas
SE QLD / NE NSW
Do they change which model that use for the outer domain for HWRF ? I noticed a run yesterday looked like it was using GFS FV3, and a few days before that GFS.
SE QLD / NE NSW
Originally Posted By: crikeyRain totals heavily reduced on land as ACCESS keeps OMA off the coast currently. The rain looks to be tightly wrapped up localised to the rotation. TC OMA comes very close and small shifts can make an enormous difference
SE QLD / NE NSW
Rain totals heavily reduced on land as ACCESS keeps OMA off the coast currently. The rain looks to be tightly wrapped up localised to the rotation. TC OMA comes very close and small shifts can make an enormous difference. Its not all over until its
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
The HWRF 00Z scenario is the one that currently looks most threatening to SEQ https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...019022000&fh=90 I am disappointed that NOAA page on HWRF is not showing Oma, but will keep an eye on it via Tidbits.
SE QLD / NE NSW
Gee I hope I'm wrong about staying dry but at least BOM's optimistic rain forecast 70 to 80% chance of any rain Sat to Mon shows some hope with decent totals.
SE QLD / NE NSW
Might see some of that sea foam again.
SE QLD / NE NSW
Yeah, this drought is making us desperate for any drops. Just really wish a shower excited me like heavy rain does. Then I would hardly ever be let down
SE QLD / NE NSW
Well if that is the case I'd be content with some windy onshore showers. At this point I'll take what I can get haha
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Originally Posted By: Ken KatoRegardless of rainfall, things are still looking likely for very strong winds and huge dangerous surf with long period swells. If only that interested me haha. Actually the swell would be nice to see, but come on, wher
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Originally Posted By: Ken KatoRegardless of rainfall, things are still looking likely for very strong winds and huge dangerous surf with long period swells. Would it be worth a beach trip maybe on Friday evening or too dangerous?
SE QLD / NE NSW
Regardless of scenarios, things are still looking likely for very strong winds near the coast and huge dangerous surf with long period swells.
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Regardless of rainfall, things are still looking likely for very strong winds and huge dangerous surf with long period swells.
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Originally Posted By: StephenIt isnít the fact that it is just Ďone runí that concerns me. It is the fact that EC was the only one showing a very near impact/impact, and now seems that every single model out there including EC (except for Norways)í h
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Originally Posted By: Steve OYea and it will no doubt change again in the next 48hrs. Isn't it just great that it's on a knifes edge. Just want the inclement weather. Haha agree. Hope it changes for our benefit. At least I know Iím not the only one
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Yea and it will no doubt change again in the next 48hrs. Isn't it just great that it's on a knifes edge. Just want the inclement weather.
SE QLD / NE NSW
ACCESS g update moving OMA up the coast before landfall currently. The eye no further south than 26s. However ACCESS r seems to want to bring him in closer. Its not a get out of jail card for free, because the most severe western flank is ferocious.
NSW / ACT
Jump to new posts Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by Jac0b @ 20/02/2019 18:42

Those are some fantastic photos Eddy; definitely a high storm base there with nice purple lightning. I've noticed the Brisbane forecast now includes the cyclone movement over the weekend. I wonder if that system will move further south and reach Syd
SE QLD / NE NSW
But guys GFS shows it hitting SEQ next week hahaha!
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
It isnít the fact that it is just Ďone runí that concerns me. It is the fact that EC was the only one showing a very near impact/impact, and now seems that every single model out there including EC (except for Norways)í have become aligned to miss us
SE QLD / NE NSW
It was never intended to hit Brisbane or the Gold Coast. Guess we are continuing our dry spell.
SE QLD / NE NSW
I would be hesitant to call the Oma thing a fizzer in SEQ as we are still a long way out and models are conflicting as usual. Currently the Bom is forecasting 100 to 200 mm rainfall per day in SEQ from Saturday. Of course they could be wrong and they
SE QLD / NE NSW
Haha EC going for only 80mm. Letís hope itís wrong about this latest run. Not that likely but still a ray of hope at least hehe
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Jump to new posts Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 by petethemoskeet @ 20/02/2019 18:34

Geez guys it's one run of one modell.EC had over 1400mm off the STH SC only 24hrs ago.I'll wait till at least Friday morning as I reckon some surprises are still in store.
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