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Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Yea true but IF there was a landfall it would most definitely be in the high uncertainty range being 100hrs+. Might still go to NZ. We do have a fair idea that it will end up offshore a few hundred kms at the moment. Good kite surfing conditions.
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
12Z EC run shows Oma heading towards the coast then NE back up into the northern coral sea......
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Yep and big push north well offshore on 168. Consistency between models would be be that regardless of north or south itís not making landfall in Aus. Could change but landfall is looking more like wishful thinking that anything else right now. EC ha
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Jump to new posts Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 by Inclement Weather @ 18/02/2019 17:36

The BoM is definitely factoring in possible coastal effects from Oma in its latest extended outlook: Quote:A medium to high chance of showers about southeastern districts. However this is dependent on the development and movement of tropical cyclone
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Heading north east at 144hrs according to EC. What a messy forecasting situation. Will be interesting to see what the ensemble members look like tonight....
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
General Weather
Jump to new posts Re: Atmospheric Rivers by Flowin @ 18/02/2019 17:17

Not relevant to Australia, but of note for Atmospheric Rivers worldwide, California got hit by a significant AR event in the last week. The Americans have now developed a classification system for ARs and apparently is was a Cat 4 event. Here is a n
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Jump to new posts Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 by Inclement Weather @ 18/02/2019 17:17

96 hrs up and it's still heading west! Edit: I note that the sat images in real time are showing the beginnings of some flaring convection that has not been evident today. It seems to be on the move a bit in warmer waters with shear decreasing on th
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
EC only up to 72 hrs on the latest run but I'm going to take a wild guess it's screaming north-west. It's already building a ridge up the NSW/QLD coast.
SE QLD / NE NSW
ACCESS gradient winds suggesting TC OMA will affect parts of the East coast from Thursday afternoon , Friday and through the weekend.This raises a bit of excitement cos the wind streamms show the possibility of 38-48knt S/ SE winds along the coast fr
SE QLD / NE NSW
Jump to new posts Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by gleno71 @ 18/02/2019 17:04

Thanks Ken appreciate your response
SE QLD / NE NSW
Jump to new posts Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by Ken Kato @ 18/02/2019 16:48

Originally Posted By: gleno71Is it fair to say that we are simply confusing ourselves with all these different models and what the potential outcome will be ? If you go back 5-10 years ago on this forum, there was more straight forward and less con
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
HWRF is now sending it over the North Island of NZ, honestly it's pretty interesting to see the barometer continue to drop as a system becomes extratropical. Hopefully it doesn't eventuate, might even beat out Cyclone ITA (wonder if anyone has a summ
SE QLD / NE NSW
Jump to new posts Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by gleno71 @ 18/02/2019 16:21

Is it fair to say that we are simply confusing ourselves with all these different models and what the potential outcome will be ? If you go back 5-10 years ago on this forum, there was more straight forward and less confusing talk, maybe that's bec
NSW / ACT
Jump to new posts Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by Stormy3 @ 18/02/2019 16:20

Yes just seen on the radar,sjt2060,the action might move a bit further north later,storms look very lightning active.
SE QLD / NE NSW
ACCESS g has OMA at 162 e 24s on Thursday. Only 10 deg of longitude from the coast. a weak ridge barrier between OMA and the coast. So going to be interesting. ACCESS has ridge building after Thursday to keep him away. Byron bay and our area jut way
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
It's looking as if Norfolk Island will be getting some much needed rain from TC Oma and I truly hope it is buried in the graveyard and doesn't hit North Island NZ.
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
ACCESS g has gone off thumping NZ with OMA. A cut of low does that from the westerly belt instead sunday 24th +162hr. ACCESS still maintaining a ridge will protect pertinent parts the east coast this week. And ACC g still maintains the core will not
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
CMC, UKMET, FV3 and GFS still graveyard. Now it's over to you, EC.
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Jump to new posts Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 by Inclement Weather @ 18/02/2019 16:00

Originally Posted By: FlowinInteresting observation there IW. So it will be interesting to watch where ACCESS R goes with this in next 24 to 48 hours. Yes, Flowin, like EC, Access-R has a higher resolution and it's been trending west for the last
Tropical Lows and Cyclones
Interesting observation there IW. So it will be interesting to watch where ACCESS R goes with this in next 24 to 48 hours.
SE QLD / NE NSW
Jump to new posts Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by Flowin @ 18/02/2019 15:44

Originally Posted By: Stormwalker tide this morning be a result of the supermoon (not the cyclone). That would be factored into the base level astronomical tide predictions which are predicted and published well in advance. King tide is a lay term
SE QLD / NE NSW
Jump to new posts Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by Ken Kato @ 18/02/2019 15:43

Above are the forecast sea level anomalies and surface currents for today compared to the upcoming Sunday generated by the OceanMaps system (the surface winds are forced by ACCESS-G). You can clearly see the storm surge type effects alo
NSW / ACT
Jump to new posts Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by sjt2060 @ 18/02/2019 15:43

Firing up to the West and Northwest of the ACT right now
SE QLD / NE NSW
Jump to new posts Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 by Mike Hauber @ 18/02/2019 15:30

Oma has a pretty large circulation at the moment which increases storm surge potential, but it does shrink down as it comes towards the coast. Still a fair size I think. On the other hand winds are rather parrallel to the coast which I'd think woul
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