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#988608 - 10/05/2011 21:49 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Willis is is pretty low down though, it still wouldn't make it over the ranges off the coast I think.

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#988635 - 11/05/2011 00:21 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Things]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Hey TC... checkout mtsat. Fiji Met has the Solomons as a low.
As for a doppler location (Saddle Mountain is not that bad) why not whack it on top of Bartle Frere/Bellenden Ker and only 50 odd km from Cairns... highest mountains in QLD and the infrastructure is there.


Edited by boomer (11/05/2011 00:22)
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#988644 - 11/05/2011 06:20 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23574
Loc: Townsville
Then thats too high and wont pick up alot of showers
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#988760 - 11/05/2011 14:42 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Good point Trav, earths curvature reduces effectiveness the higher the radar is and the further out you go (doh). Seems that both Cairns and Townsville are at about optimum elevation but both have problems with higher nearby ranges.
Mt Yarrabah (infrastucture) may be another alternative as it would open up the SW (at the expense of due south see BOM stuff below) being further to the east than Saddle Mountain which struggles with the heights of Frere and Ker.
Either way the ideal is for Cairns,TV, Cooktown and Mackay to get doppler.

Cairns
Location: Saddle Mountain (lat 16.82 deg S, long 145.68 deg E)
Type: WF 100 C Band
Availability (Typical): 24 hours per day
Interpretation Notes:
Cairns radar is situated approximately 9km NNW of Cairns airport at Saddle Mountain on the Kuranda range at a height of 652m above MSL. The radar has good visibility in all directions, though does have some limitations to the SSE looking over Mt Bellenden Ker (1593m) and Mt Bartle Frere (1622m) at approximately 40 and 60km respectively.

Townsville
Location: Mt Stuart (lat 19.35 deg S, long 146.78 deg E)
Type: WF44 S Band
Availability (Typical): 24 hours per day
Interpretation Notes:
Mt Stuart's elevation (584m) makes it a fairly good site for Townsville's main weather watch radar. It does however suffer some obstruction to it's view due to the higher terrain around the region. Mt Elliott (1234m) lies approximately 20km to the SE and considerably restricts the radar's ability to see light to moderate precipitation echoes in that direction. Magnetic Island (507m) 20km to the north has a small effect but generally precipitation from the north comes from high cloud and the island effect is not noticed. Ranges to the west can obscure early development of thunderstorms, but fully developed storms are picked up well. SE trade wind showers are common along the coast during the dry season and the radar's range for these extends from about Innisfail to Bowen. Both of these towns have reported showers that were not picked up on radar. Low level drizzle can also go undetected due to the radar beam going over the top of the precipitation. Strong SE trade winds will raise a sea spray that will be picked up by the radar and appear as echoes, over the ocean only, to a range of about 75 km. Heavy rain over the radar site will cause attenuation of all signals. Path attenuation also occurs when the radar beam passes through an intense thunderstorm cell; the returned signal from cells further along that path will be reduced. Apart from these features, the radar performs well and gives a reasonably accurate representation of rainfall intensity.
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#988802 - 11/05/2011 16:41 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Are those two LP systems Solomons/Vanuatu merging ?
Latest Fiji met.
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0991.jpg
Older Vanuatu Met map
http://www.meteo.gov.vu/MapsandCharts/LatestVanuatuGroupChart/tabid/83/Default.aspx
SSTs still as high as a month ago
http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts/idyoc13.shtml?region=13&forecast=1
Latest water vapour
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=4&element=2&mode=UTC

Shear is low and there is vorticity (albeit being weak). Seems the CS is not completely dead yet.
Thought about not posting this... but what the hell.
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#988864 - 11/05/2011 19:28 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
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Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Call me a nut job...

Previous Mtsat passes show it (the Solomons LPS) very cold at the top.
Upper divergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=
Lower convergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
Low shear
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Vorticity
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Upper level winds (rotation)
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=

Lower level show nada but all of these maps are oldish (which, yes could shoot down the above)

Either way HMMMMM

Latest bom map shows it dropping hpa (they also think it will not be going away for the next few days).
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
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#988877 - 11/05/2011 20:15 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4385
Loc: Wynnum
BoM wanted to install Townsville radar on top of Mt Elliott ( 4000+ft), the highest peak around in 1971, however no road, and still none, which is why Mt Stuart was the next best thing and since that date the radar has been " built out ". Latest rumours I heard were the new site was being considered somewhere between High Range and Paluma, but since Bowen came on stream a few years ago and gives a good coverage in fixing many of Mt Stuart's blank spots it is cheaper to continue with Mt Stuart and order numerous boxes of band aids for the existing radar..
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#988887 - 11/05/2011 20:40 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: retired weather man]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Paradise - Mackay, Qld
Maybe the United Arab Emirates will fund a few new radars for us as well. grin

Boomer, Its definitely what you call a Tropical Low. Although the system hasnt really shown any signs of consolidation, rather just a broad scale rotation. Latest pass indicates surface winds in the vicinity of 20kts. A parcel of drier air in the lower levels is also penetrating the southern side. System is located underneath an upper level anticyclone and sea surface temperatures are well above the threshold. Ill give it a low (5-20%) chance for further development.
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#988926 - 11/05/2011 21:44 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
TC Poncho Offline
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Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Boomer, I was just looking at the fiji met and mtsat. Fiji met looks wrong with the low detached from the trough now(good?/bad?). Looks like a strong upper high over top too.

Atleast theres some small background swell atm from the high to the east of nz... and we have offshores woooooo!
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#988947 - 11/05/2011 22:15 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
There is lower level stuff that could provide friction the top is rotating (and giving its very cold moments). Whats happening behind may be interesting if it can merge as what happened before.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
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#988953 - 11/05/2011 22:31 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
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Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
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#988961 - 11/05/2011 22:45 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
TC Poncho Offline
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Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
wheres this labrador you speak of? all I can see is a roosterhawk up near the equator.
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#988964 - 11/05/2011 22:49 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Mtsat... be quick... http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html woof (God that's sad)


Edited by boomer (11/05/2011 22:51)
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#988969 - 11/05/2011 23:02 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Or is it a golden retriever emerging from hell (it's just its head... wait for the eye to appear).
Either way it is a very big head... question is how it will react to what is being beaten down to its west. Certain isobaric dent.


Edited by boomer (11/05/2011 23:07)
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#988972 - 11/05/2011 23:12 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
TC Poncho Offline
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Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
lol, its gonna eat vanuatu
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#988976 - 11/05/2011 23:19 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Do you reckon the Lab and the Sols thing will hook up... chances look pretty high. If so it starts to look pretty big even if it is against very strong highs.


Edited by boomer (11/05/2011 23:20)
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#988983 - 11/05/2011 23:39 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
For the record, EC and GFS ensembles as well as deterministics (including nogaps) missed these lows (BOM didn't), which to be fair combined, let alone singular, are pretty big.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=4&element=0&mode=UTC


Edited by boomer (11/05/2011 23:43)
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#1001056 - 15/07/2011 16:03 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
Mathew Offline
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Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6765
Loc: Townsville, Queensland


Let I mean.

**There is some very good interesting Tropical development way up here the north area might need a little watching**


Edited by Mathew (15/07/2011 16:12)
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Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
12/17/17 Dec 7:52pm GR 0.00mm > 24 past 0.00mm > 0.00mm
T now 29.0C > Tm 34.1C minT 22.6C H 55% W 0.0kmG 10.8GW BAROMETRIC 756.7mmhg 6:34pm-5:57pm 12/20/17 > evening/night

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#1001060 - 15/07/2011 16:24 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
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Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6765
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I only just put down a little note just if some pick that one up what I am talking about just before.
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Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
12/17/17 Dec 7:52pm GR 0.00mm > 24 past 0.00mm > 0.00mm
T now 29.0C > Tm 34.1C minT 22.6C H 55% W 0.0kmG 10.8GW BAROMETRIC 756.7mmhg 6:34pm-5:57pm 12/20/17 > evening/night

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#1001062 - 15/07/2011 16:35 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6765
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I vote Global Warming and Climate Change for that to develop this time of the year who is with me on that one or not?

That if it's keep it's up. %50 to %50 chance I will give it at the moment.


Edited by Mathew (15/07/2011 16:37)
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Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
12/17/17 Dec 7:52pm GR 0.00mm > 24 past 0.00mm > 0.00mm
T now 29.0C > Tm 34.1C minT 22.6C H 55% W 0.0kmG 10.8GW BAROMETRIC 756.7mmhg 6:34pm-5:57pm 12/20/17 > evening/night

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