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#1001913 - 20/07/2011 10:28 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Originally Posted By: Blizzard
I think the Wagga sounding may have missed out on the coldest air? The uppers down to the lowers are not that impressive with the latest sounding they provide. The focus of the cold pool was a little east of that. I'm guessing -28C to -30C across the OP/Yetholme area and about -28C here for 500hPa temps and maybe -8C for 700hPa temps. The Sydney sounding from yesterday was not that impressive either, fascinating.


That is interesting Blizz, I have a suspicion that what happened yesterday was too localised and small scale for the models as well as our observations to handle correctly. I certainly have seen snow fall at higher pressures with cold upper temps before and it tends to be fluffier in those set ups. I guess this is the exact situation that always gives us hope for snow on the CTís because the real time small scale events cannot be predicted very well. Between 8mm and 10mm yesterday fell as snow at Yetholme which meant the density of the snow was between 8-10 to 1. The heavy snow in both May and June had a ratio between 6-8 to 1. That is part of the reason the snow vanished so fast overnight as well as there being a little less than May/June. The snowfalls in May/June both had well over 20mm falling as snow.

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#1001915 - 20/07/2011 10:42 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10341
Loc: Blue Mountains
That is fascinating stuff PD, I love the post analysis stuff as much as the snow event itself as it helps prepare for future understanding and observation.

The fluffier snow might be reflected in yesterday arvos Sydney sounding:

http://www.blackheathweather.com/soundings/sydsounding19-7-11a.png

Is that to do with a bit less uplift and slightly drier mid levels with higher pressure? You can see the lower RH in the sounding over Sydney in the mid levels.

Yes, localised events are sometimes hard to pick up on the models or indeed the soundings.

This event in 2006 was very benign on the charts, really nothing much at all showing up but there was a tiny kink in the surface charts over central NSW that got me fractionally excited. It ended up producing this:

http://www.blackheathweather.com/picture2006a.html
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

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#1001916 - 20/07/2011 10:43 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
And boy didn't it warm up quickly overnight las night.

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#1001938 - 20/07/2011 13:37 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: DaveM]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
[quote=DaveM]Thanks for the photos Harmony - looks like a great day.

BOM official temps strike again - yesterday we did not get above 5 degrees all day but our max is now showing as 10. This 24hour non calendar day thing is a crock!!

This must cause some misleading stats - in the scheme of things it would be miniscule but to understand extremes in an area it MUST cause misinformation at times. [/quote



I agree. Look at the official max of 7.5C for Oberon yesterday. That is 0.3C higher than their current mean max for this month. To the casual observer it would look like yesterday was one of the warmer days this July in Oberon, not like one of the snowiest days in recent years. I reckon we need 11pm 7am and 3pm temps, not just min and max for 24hours


Edited by avalon (20/07/2011 13:38)

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#1001939 - 20/07/2011 13:39 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: DaveM]
Fiona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/09/2009
Posts: 126
Loc: Delegate, S/T NSW
What great pics! I always love how the tree's look when they are covered in snow, Beautiful!

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#1001942 - 20/07/2011 13:54 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: DaveM]
ja13 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/07/2008
Posts: 304
Loc: Robertson 760asl
Oh Harmony thankyou sooooo much for those wonderful photos. Felt like I was there........wish I was there!
Cheers Jen smile

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#1001967 - 20/07/2011 16:38 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: ja13]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
AXS and GFS leaving 540 over eastern NSW for a few days into the weekend. With onshore winds, who knows OP may see the odd LOCALISED light drizzly snow fall.

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#1001976 - 20/07/2011 17:06 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: DaveM]
raftcrew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2003
Posts: 286
Loc: Faulconbridge, NSW (Blue Mount...
Great shots Harmony!! You must have had a ripper day! Timed it just right too, so well done to you...

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#1002042 - 21/07/2011 07:25 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Originally Posted By: Blizzard
The fluffier snow might be reflected in yesterday arvos Sydney sounding:
http://www.blackheathweather.com/soundings/sydsounding19-7-11a.png
Is that to do with a bit less uplift and slightly drier mid levels with higher pressure? You can see the lower RH in the sounding over Sydney in the mid levels.


Just not sure Blizz, but maybe that dry air allowed a downdraft of snow from around 550mb where the large Cu were thick and producing the snow. This then could have pushed right through the lower thinner humid layer at 800mb. The effect would have been similar to a summer storm. I think if you had a sounding right in that downdraft it still would have looked different because the freezing level came under 850mb in the downdraft, however this may be the profile that allows that to happen. I think Laurier could answer this better.

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#1002062 - 21/07/2011 10:48 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10341
Loc: Blue Mountains
Thanks PD, will look at it all a bit more soon.

I'm not so excited about any potential over the next few days but the amount of cold air moving our way in the extended models is impressive. I'd be surprised if something biggish doesn't develop in the next two weeks or so.


Edited by bigwilly (22/07/2011 07:03)
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

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#1002081 - 21/07/2011 12:06 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: Blizzard]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5183
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Blizzard
Thanks PD, will look at it all a bit more soon.

I'm not so excited about any potential over the next few days but the amount of cold air moving our way in the extended models is impressive. I'd be surprised if something biggish doesn't develop in the next two weeks or so.


Really? What have you seen mate?

Homer


Edited by bigwilly (22/07/2011 07:03)

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#1002099 - 21/07/2011 14:09 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: Blizzard]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Originally Posted By: Blizzard
Thanks PD, will look at it all a bit more soon.

I'm not so excited about any potential over the next few days but the amount of cold air moving our way in the extended models is impressive. I'd be surprised if something biggish doesn't develop in the next two weeks or so.


JA13 note Freudian slip here. Trace Back. wink Ssssh!!


Edited by bigwilly (22/07/2011 07:06)

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#1002102 - 21/07/2011 14:23 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: DaveM]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5183
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Originally Posted By: Blizzard
Thanks PD, will look at it all a bit more soon.

I'm not so excited about any potential over the next few days but the amount of cold air moving our way in the extended models is impressive. I'd be surprised if something biggish doesn't develop in the next two weeks or so.


JA13 note Freudian slip here. Trace Back. wink Ssssh!!


Didn't notice that. Someone's going to be embarressed!!

Homer


Edited by bigwilly (22/07/2011 07:07)

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#1002105 - 21/07/2011 14:38 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: Homer]
ja13 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/07/2008
Posts: 304
Loc: Robertson 760asl
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: DaveM
[quote=Blizzard]Thanks PD, will look at it all a bit more soon.

I'm not so excited about any potential over the next few days but the amount of cold air moving our way in the extended models is impressive. I'd be surprised if something biggish doesn't develop in the next two weeks or so.


JA13 note Freudian slip here. Trace Back. wink Ssssh!!


Didn't notice that. Someone's going to be embarressed!!
OPPS sory blush Just havent heard from him in awhile got a tad excited blush grin


Edited by bigwilly (22/07/2011 07:08)

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#1002106 - 21/07/2011 14:40 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: ja13]
Daizy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 24
Loc: Leonay
just looked at the Katoomba council weather page and its stating sleet at 5.4 temp... not quite sure there?

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#1002156 - 21/07/2011 19:21 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: Daizy]
BOM99 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
This is me Snowmi, I changed my display name so I would not be so obvious. Have decided to lay low for some time now but I am still around.

Not anything left in this cold change for us but South Island of NZ will get a woloping from a very deep southerly that will bring 850's of -8 to -10, sea level settling snow is certain in Dunedin.

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#1002174 - 21/07/2011 21:10 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: BOM99]
Harmony Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2008
Posts: 276
Loc: Faulconbridge
Well we are glad you are still around BOM99 as we value your assessment and knowledge smile

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#1002952 - 27/07/2011 19:11 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: Harmony]
Conquis Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/05/2006
Posts: 45
Loc: Katoomba 953m asl or Marrangar...
A little bit late I know but I filmed snow along Bells Line of Road on the 19th July.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLRzttpVsOg

Simon

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#1003034 - 28/07/2011 09:08 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: Conquis]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well done Conquis - amazed so many oncoming vehicles not driving with lights on.

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#1003256 - 29/07/2011 13:09 Re: NSW Snow - 19 July 2011 [Re: DaveM]
wilderwood Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/06/2009
Posts: 100
Loc: Southern Highlands
cheers thanks for posting Conquis/Simon great footage.

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