what round are you talking about?

This Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is all I want to know.

Sorry Matty, but there's no question for TC Jazzy.

All well I will just left it as that any way.

According to the rules from WWW question 16 strongest cyclone, Jasmine is in the running but it also states that wind gusts need to be achieved within Australia's Area Of Responsibilty. Jasmine really cranked once it was out of this area so it leaves this question still wide open for a big system to take the lead into March. If predictions eventuate the middle few weeks of March should add to the tally board of cyclones for this season.

Question # 12: The Southern Oscillation Index (S.O.I.) averaged over the 6 months of Spring & Summer.

After a rapid decline during the middle of 2011, the S.O.I. recovered and entered positive territory once again resulting in La Nina persisting for another season, albeit much weaker than the previous year.



For the 2011/12 season the average S.O.I. for the 6 months was 11.28+, which ranks as the 15th highest from the past 136 years of data. Not a bad follow up considering the 2010/11 season produced the highest figure on record.

Scoring for this category was based on the following system:
10 Points – Within 0.5
8 Points – Within 1.0
7 Points – Within 2.0
6 Points – Within 3.0
5 Points – Within 4.0
4 Points – Within 5.0
3 Points – Within 6.0
2 Points – Within 8.0
1 Point – Within 10.0

Allocation of Error Points:
The contestant’s inaccuracy will be rounded to the nearest 0.2 figure, with 1 error point being allocated for every 0.2 increment.

Top 40 Results:



Well done to Rainrunner, PV Weather and Xavo who all raked in maximum points for this round. The Central Coast & Whitsunday crew did very well taking up 6 of the top 7 positions – nice work.

And the updated overall Top 30:



We have a new leader! After spending the last 20 weeks at the top I’ve finally been knocked off my perch. Had to happen sooner of later. Well done BigJohn.

Still another 8 categories to go over the final 2 months of the competition, so anything can happen yet. Should be an interesting finish.

Oh awesome, top work Whitsunday Crew!

It's starting to get cold here in Brisbane, I don't know how I'm gonna cope...

WWW must be busily calculating the final catergories in this years comp. I wonder who will be on the podium this year.

OK then folks, yes the Wet Season has come and gone again, and we are now into the Dry season. So time for me to tally up results in the 8 remaining categories of the Tropics Competition. Sorry for the delay, have been working on this for the past week – though have been pretty busy. Anyway, to get us started, here are results for categories # 13 to 16.

# 13 – Highest Maximum Temperature Recorded at Broome:

This season the highest temperature in Broome peaked at 41.0°C on November 26th:



And if you look real close in the above image you can actually see Popeye cooling off down by the beach!

So just to recap, the following scoring system applies to this category:

10 Points – Exact Temperature
8 Points – Within 0.1°C
7 Points – Within 0.3°C
6 Points – Within 0.5°C
5 Points – Within 0.7°C
4 Points – Within 1.0°C
3 Points – Within 1.5°C
2 Points – Within 2.0°C
1 Point – Within 2.5°C

Allocation of Error Points:
1 error point will be allocated for each decimal degree inaccuracy

Top 40 contestants:



Well done to KroneckerDelta, PV Weather and RWM’s Daughter for all forecasting the exact temperature. KD claiming victory by forecasting just 71 minutes ahead of PV. Unfortunately for RWMD, she was penalised 1 point for a ‘late’ entry.


# 14 – Total Number of Tropical Cyclones:

Well to much relief for some, and great disappointment for others, overall this season produced a below average number of Tropical Cyclones within the Australian Region. A total of 8 cyclones were active within Australian Waters between September 1st and April 30th:
1. Alenga
2. Fina
3. Grant
4. Heidi
5. Iggy
6. Jasmine
7. Koji
8. Lua

TC Alenga was the only system named by an international warning centre which travelled into Australian waters.

Scoring System:
10 Points – Exact Number
6 Points – Within 1 Cyclone
4 Points – Within 2 Cyclones
2 Points – Within 3 Cyclones
1 Point – Within 4 Cyclones

Allocation of Error Points:
5 error points allocated for each cyclone inaccuracy

Top 40 Contestants:



A total of 9 contestants each correctly forecasted the exact number, boosting their overall total. Well done to Retired Weather Man for being the first!


# 15 – Total Number of Land-falling Tropical Cyclones:

This season all the action occurred in the Western half of the country. A total of 3 landfalls took place, all from separate systems. The first being Grant (Cat 2) in the NT, followed by Heidi (Cat 2) and Lua (Cat 4) in WA.

Scoring System:
10 Points – Exact Number
6 Points – Within 1 Cyclone
4 Points – Within 2 Cyclones
2 Points – Within 3 Cyclones
1 Point – Within 4 Cyclones

Allocation of Error Points:
5 error points allocated for each cyclone inaccuracy

Top 40 Contestants:



Congratulations to JoshweatherNOW, Rainrunner, Firepac and HedlandCyclone for all forecasting the correct number of landfalls.


# 16 – Season’s Most Intense Cyclone:

This category is a little different in that even if the cyclone you choose isn’t the strongest, you still have the opportunity to earn points. This season the best was saved for last with only one cyclone attaining severe status (Cat 3+) whilst within Australian Waters. This was achieved by Cyclone Lua, which later crossed near Pardoo as a category 4 system (marginal). The guys from Oz Cyclone Chasers also kept us informed and entertained who intercepted her at landfall. Meanwhile Queensland born Cyclone Jasmine eventually developed into a Category 4 system, though by this time had long exited Australian Waters.

Below is a table listing all Australian named Cyclones that formed throughout the 2011/12 Season, including maximum severity category attained and intensity at landfall (where applicable):



So just to clarify the above, scoring system for this round:
Highest Category achieved by Cyclone selected by contestant:
5 Points – Category 5
4 Points – Category 4
3 Points – Category 3
2 Points – Category 2
Contestants will be awarded a further 2 points if the cyclone they selected is the season’s most intense. Additionally, contestants will also be awarded points if the cyclone they selected makes landfall;
Category at Landfall:
5 Points – Category 5
4 Points – Category 4
3 Points – Category 3
2 Points – Category 2
1 Point – Category 1

Allocation of Error Points:
• 30 error points allocated for cyclones that fail to attain severe status and fail to make landfall
• 20 error points allocated for cyclones that fail to attain severe status but make landfall
• 15 error points allocated for cyclones that fail to make landfall but attain severe status
• 10 error points allocated for cyclones that attain severe status and make landfall, but are not the season’s most intense cyclone
• 0 error points allocated for selecting the season’s most intense cyclone regardless of it making landfall or not

Top 40 Contestants:



Well done to Popeye, Thomo, Eclectic and Mick for each forecasting the season’s most intense cyclone, and earning themselves 10 points. A major turnaround for Popeye this year who last year in this same category was second from the bottom after his cyclone failed to eventuate. This year unfortunately once again not all forecasted cyclones eventuated, with the remainder of contestants all forecasting Mitchell, so sadly miss out on points.

I’ll try my best to get results up for the remaining categories some time over the next few days..... Stay tuned!!!

Wow, I've really picked up a lot over the end of the season.
Thought I'd be at the bottom for a while there

Nah that's my job to come last . I said it would all be down hill from the start for me. But there are no loosers here. Everyone that had a go and wasn't afraid to enter are winners in my book.

The biggest winner is Wet Wet Wet regardless of the result, for his efforts in putting this thing together! Thanks WWW.

You got that right Coldfront, thanks WWW

Thanks guys, but I think we’re all winners here for getting in and having a go no matter what the result.

Anyway, apologies for the delay, things have been a bit hectic lately. Nevertheless, all results are now finalised so we’ll continue on from where we last finished….

Final Results for the 2011 / 2012 Annual Tropics Competition:

# 17 – Cairns Wet Season Rainfall

For the 5th season in a row, Cairns has recorded an above average Wet Season rainfall total, largely thanks to a record breaking October and 900mm+ total in March. I managed to get in contact with the BoM to verify a few figures, and this season the Wet Season total (October – April) came in at 2315.6mm.

So once again just to recap, the following scoring system is used to allocate points:
10 Points – Within 25mm
8 Points – Within 50mm
7 Points – Within 100mm
6 Points – Within 200mm
5 Points – Within 300mm
4 Points – Within 400mm
3 Points – Within 500mm
2 Points – Within 600mm
1 Point – Within 800mm

Allocation of error points:
The contestant’s inaccuracy will be rounded to the nearest 25mm with 1 error point being allocated for each 25mm increment

Top 40 Contestants:



Well done to SingTheSorrow for an almost perfect forecast. Doesn’t get much closer than that! Congratulations to Thunderstruck for also picking up 10 points from a close forecast.

# 18 – Rainfall Days Above 25mm in Mackay

Well despite the slow start, this season Mackay still managed to record 21 days of rain above 25mm, almost half of the 40 days recorded in the 2010/2011 season. Once again rainfall in March was a major contributor, with 8 consecutive days above 25mm accumulating to a total of 691mm.

Scoring for this round:
10 Points – Exact Number
8 Points – Within 1 Day
7 Points – Within 2 Days
6 Points – Within 3 Days
5 Points – Within 4 Days
4 Points – Within 6 Days
3 Points – Within 8 Days
2 Points – Within 10 Days
1 Point – Within 15 Days

Allocation of error points:
3 error points allocated for each days inaccuracy

Top 40 Contestants:



Congratulations to Sandfly, Cloudz and Dawoodman for each forecasting 21 days, earning 10 points each.

Category # 19 – Location of Highest Daily Rainfall

It’s always interesting to see how this category plays out, it only takes one solid downpour at any location to change the result for everyone. Last year Mornington Island produced the goods, with nearly 500mm in one day, yet this year it failed to make the top 5. Below are the Top 5 eligible locations which produced the highest daily rainfall totals for 2011/2012:
1. 271.0mm – Kuri Bay
2. 206.2mm – Cairns
3. 188.2mm – Darwin
4. 148.6mm – Townsville
5. 140.2mm – Mackay

Scoring system for this round:
10 Points – Correct Answer
6 Points – If location selected records second highest daily total
4 Points – If location selected records third highest daily total
2 Points – If location selected records forth highest daily total
1 Point – If location selected records fifth highest daily total

Allocation of error points:
• 0 error points for selecting wettest location
• 5 error points for selecting second wettest location
• 10 error points for selecting third wettest location
• 15 error points for selecting fourth wettest location
• 20 error points for selecting fifth wettest location
• 30 error points for selecting all remaining locations

Top 40 Contestants:



Well done to Popeye for having faith in Western Australia by going alone and forecasting a unique location which ultimately produced the winning points!

Only one more category to go now folks...

# 20 – Highest Daily Rainfall Total

OK, so here we had to forecast the highest daily rainfall total recorded during the wet season at the location we thought would win the previous category. As mentioned previously, last year Mornington Island obliterated the rest of the field picking up close to 500mm. This year however, the totals were somewhat more tamed. As listed above, Kuri Bay topped the list with 271.0mm on March 16th during a very active phase of the Monsoon.

Below is the rainfall map for Western Australia from March 16th highlighting the concentration of heavy falls through the Kimberley’s in the vicinity of Kuri Bay:



And below is the infrared satellite image taken that day which clearly demonstrates the highly active phase of the monsoon producing widespread activity right across Northern Australia, with the development of Cyclone Lua in the west which later impacted the Pilbara Coast as a Category 4 system:



Scoring for this round:
10 Points – Within 5mm
8 Points – Within 10mm
7 Points – Within 20mm
6 Points – Within 30mm
5 Points – Within 40mm
4 Points – Within 50mm
3 Points – Within 75mm
2 Points – Within 100mm
1 Point – Within 150mm

Allocation of error points:
The contestant’s inaccuracy will be rounded to the nearest 5mms, with 1 Error Point being allocated for every 5mm increment

Top 40 Contestants:



Great effort by Occo, out by only 1mm which is enough to claim 1st place and 10 points for this category.

So there we have it folks, results for all categories have now been listed. If you’ve followed closely and are an expert at quick calculations in your mind you might already know who the winner is. Otherwise if you’re like me and need all the help you can get, you’ll have to check out the overall scoreboard coming up.....

Top 30 Overall Rankings for the 2011/2012 Tropics Competition:

Righteo, so after 9 long months and 20 questions, it’s come down to this. No more mucking around, just straight to the results.....



Well done to Jesse24 claiming victory in the 2011/2012 Tropics Competition with 92 points! An amazing come from behind victory, after ranking outside the Overall Top 30 for the first 5 categories. It wasn’t until results from the 6th category were tallied that Jesse made it to 30th overall, and from there it was all uphill, climbing the ladder all the way to the top by continually scoring well in remaining categories. Well done mate.

Congratulations also to Black Nor’easter, taking the silver with 86 points for second place. BNE has scored consistently well throughout the competition enabling a very high ranking all season whilst maintaining a very tidy error rate. Unfortunately this season it wasn’t quite enough to win, but nonetheless an extraordinary effort!

And if one cockroach in the Top 3 isn’t bad enough, how about 2!! Yep that’s right the southerners are beating us at our own game! Crookhaven River has managed to come up with an excellent result also scoring 86 points, however has had to settle for bronze based on a slightly higher error rate than BNE. Ironically both Black Nor’easter and Crookhaven River scored very well last season also finishing side-by-side taking out 5th and 6th place respectively. So well done guys, I’m sure we’ll all be looking to see your forecasts for next season’s competition!

Not far behind with 84 points was SingTheSorrow. STS also performed very well throughout the competition, topping the list in 2 categories, and scoring maximum points in 4 categories overall. Great effort!

Rounding out the top 5, and representing the Central Coast & Whitsundays crew with 82 points is Rainrunner. Like SingTheSorrow, Rainrunner was also clever enough (or lucky enough) to earn maximum points in 4 categories, which is certainly no easy task, so well done!

In 6th place this season with 81 points is RWM’s Daughter. Unfortunately for RWMD, she one was of the unlucky few who submitted a late entry, therefore had to suffer the consequence of being penalised 1 point in every category she scored. Ultimately this potentially cost her the game as a total of 20 points were deducted, which otherwise would have contributed to an overall score of 101. However, in fairness to everyone else RWMD agreed to these penalties prior to entering, so there can be no argument. Nevertheless, it was a great effort scoring consistently well throughout and posting an amazing average error rate of 9.2. However as previously mentioned, for next season once the forecasting deadline has passed, under no circumstances will late entries be accepted. So get in early or miss out!

And once again, finishing in 7th place for the second season in a row is Wet Wet Wet. Yay, what can I say… I peaked too soon… Back to the drawing board we go!

Finally, a huge congratulations to all contestants who participated this season. Doesn’t matter if you come first or last, it’s all about getting involved and having a go. There’s no denying luck plays a major part in how well you perform. As you can see in the above results table, using all the winning answers from the previous season this time around only produced a score of 60 points, which wasn’t even enough to make it inside the Top 30. Quite extraordinary considering both seasons had similarities in that they were both a La Niña.

And while I think of it, now might be a good time to present the winner’s trophy to the 2011/2012 Champion Jesse24:







Well done Jesse, you’ve now been added to the list of legends from past seasons:






Once again thank you everyone for your support, and I hope to see you all back here in August ready to go for the 2012/2013 Tropics Competition!!!

"In 6th place this season with 81 points is RWM’s Daughter. Unfortunately for RWMD, she one was of the unlucky few who submitted a late entry, therefore had to suffer the consequence of being penalised 1 point in every category she scored. Ultimately this potentially cost her the game as a total of 20 points were deducted, which otherwise would have contributed to an overall score of 101. However, in fairness to everyone else RWMD agreed to these penalties prior to entering, so there can be no argument. Nevertheless, it was a great effort scoring consistently well throughout and posting an amazing average error rate of 9.2. However as previously mentioned, for next season once the forecasting deadline has passed, under no circumstances will late entries be accepted. So get in early or miss out!"

6th place!! Very happy with that result - I'm amazed to have even made the top 30

Thanks WWW for allowing my late entry - I will tell myself secretly that I nearly won lol

Dad's gonna be spewing -

RWMD = 6th
RWM = 30th......

Ahhh the sweet scent of family victory - mwahahahahahahaha!

Congrats to Jesse24 and well done to the CC&W crew for taking out 4 of the top 10 places. And a particular thanks to WWW for all the time and effort he puts in to running this competition every year, great fun and looking forward to next years contest.

What wow! That's ridiculous! Thanks everyone also I don't know enough about the weather in NT and WA but I have watched cyclones and the weather over QLD all my life so I guess it showed! I remember I was betting on a Cyclone Tasha scenario in the Coral Sea again to start a season that would have had a fairly strong La Nina. I was getting worried until April that Cairns would have a dud wet season too!

Also I don't post as much as I used too but I am on here every day checking the forum.

Congratulations Jesse24!!

A big thankyou to WWW for the comp. Thoroughly enjoyed it and will line up again this year.

Well done also to the talented mob from the Central Coast and Whitsundays for featuring so prominently in the top 30

More congratulations to Jesse24.. Extraordinary effort.

WWW thanks yet again. Love the trophies this year. Judging by the number of CCW members in the top 30 I'm tipping a CCW win next year. Well done everyone.

congrats Jesse24, fantastic effort, shout yourself a congralutory drink this evening from us all!!! lol

and of course bravo to WWW for again putting some much time and effort every year. not easy to do, but again a job well done mate.