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#1006498 - 17/08/2011 12:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Mega]
Mattqldstorms Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/09/2010
Posts: 2193
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
Some dark looking clouds overhead at the moment...



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#1006514 - 17/08/2011 13:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Mattqldstorms]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Looks like the trough is coming through with similar timing to the GFS Forecast

1pm Synoptic chart

http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts/060_NT%20and%20QLD_03.gif

1pm GFS (12Z) surface wind chart

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/image.php?n...z_ssfc_qld_.png
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#1006536 - 17/08/2011 15:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Scottie A]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1119
Loc: Melbourne
I thought this forecast sounding was worth showing-
http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html...tions=Locations

Pretty awesome, shame about the lack of CAPE haha.

On a side note, the BSCH site is great. Those guys have done an incredible job. One question though, does anyone know how the storm-relative helicities are calculated? I might be completely wrong but something doesn't seem right. First off, for left-moving supercells we are after negative SRH on the BSCH charts. However, I suspect that the SRH's might be calculated for a right mover? Or is it calculated of a storm moving with the mean 0-6 km winds? Or a left mover? I might be setting myself up for a slap in the face smile Just genuinely interested though.

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#1006538 - 17/08/2011 16:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: MC Thomas]
Tejay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/08/2009
Posts: 584
Loc: SE QLD
MC Thomas - where was that sounding from? I knew it was good, but not that good.

Based on that, there would have been every chance of Tornados tommorow if everything else fell into place.

If the dew point was a bit higher and storm bases a little lower (obviously with the CAPE issue rectified), that would be a better profile, especially with the wind shear, than the Alabama super tornado outbreak this year.

What a shame (from our perspective).

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#1006540 - 17/08/2011 16:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Tejay]
Mattqldstorms Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/09/2010
Posts: 2193
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
Originally Posted By: Tejay
MC Thomas - where was that sounding from? I knew it was good, but not that good.

Based on that, there would have been every chance of Tornados tommorow if everything else fell into place.

If the dew point was a bit higher and storm bases a little lower (obviously with the CAPE issue rectified), that would be a better profile, especially with the wind shear, than the Alabama super tornado outbreak this year.

What a shame (from our perspective).

Really Tornados!!?? Looking forward to tomorrow even more now! grin

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#1006543 - 17/08/2011 16:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Mattqldstorms]
Tejay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/08/2009
Posts: 584
Loc: SE QLD
If anyone is interested, here is the sounding for the Alabama tornado outbreak;

http://www.geography.osu.edu/metclub/BMX%20Evening.png

If anything I think the wind shear profile on MC Thomas's sounding is slightly better.

Clearly there are obvious issues lacking tommorow

- No dry slot
- Lack of CAPE
- High storm bases

But in my opinion, the wind shear profile is definatly there for it, had these things fallen into place.

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#1006544 - 17/08/2011 16:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Tejay]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1119
Loc: Melbourne
Oh sorry, my mistake. That was for an area south of Morree at 12Z today.

Certainly the wind shear in that forecast sounding is amazing. Not unlike what you would expect for strong/violent tornadoes. Though wind shear means absolutely nothing if you don't have a storm in the first place!

Edit: That Alabama (Birmingham?) sounding is absolutely terrifying. In that sounding, winds at pretty much all levels are much stronger (500 mbar wind speed of 70-75 knots vs 50 knots on the forecast sounding).


Edited by MC Thomas (17/08/2011 16:32)

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#1006547 - 17/08/2011 16:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: MC Thomas]
Tejay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/08/2009
Posts: 584
Loc: SE QLD
Yes - but the wind is all from the SSW to SWW on the Alabama sounding, whereas on your sounding it is from NNW - NWW so from eyebal I think the bulk shear might actually be slightly stronger on the Morree sounding?

It was actually really bad for chasing on that day - you couldn't chase down storms, it was impossible to catch them.

The best you could do was pick a spot and try your best to intercept what was there. However even that was hard as the 7min gap between radar loops was a major issue with storms moving at that speed.

Anothther interesting thing I remember of that day was the updrafts were going verticle (even in that wind shear). The air was rising that quick, it was like watching a slow time lapse.

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#1006555 - 17/08/2011 17:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Tejay]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1119
Loc: Melbourne
Getting a bit off topic but yes, certainly the amount of turning with height is also important too, not just wind speeds. Personally, I thought the Alabama sounding would still have stronger shear but it can be a bit hard to tell just by eye, maybe I am wrong. Must of been an amazing but sobering sight for you, even if you didn't see any of the storms close up. A sad day for the people there.

Your point is a very good one though, big storm outbreaks with fast moving storms are often not as good storm chasing wise as more isolated, slow-moving severe storms. That is often the case here in Australia too.


Edited by MC Thomas (17/08/2011 17:08)

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#1006592 - 17/08/2011 19:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: MC Thomas]
sixties Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/12/2009
Posts: 130
Loc: Cabooltrue North
Apparently beachmont tm has had 199mm of rain. has to be an error

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#1006759 - 18/08/2011 17:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: sixties]
Squeako da Magnifico. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/06/2005
Posts: 3197
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
EC has upped the falls for next week. With a persistant strong upper low centred over central-eastern QLD for most of next week with a moist NE flow. I think it's almost a similar setup to the January event?
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2012 Rainfall YTD: 1016.0mm (avg: 1385.6mm)
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#1006777 - 18/08/2011 18:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
MRF Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2011
Posts: 353
Loc: Gladstone QLD
BOM's OCF is forecasting some decent falls starting on Sun and going all week, mostly for areas close to the coast in SE Qld, some even bigger falls for NE NSW. Weatherzone's forecast not as much at this stage.


Edited by MRF (18/08/2011 18:58)

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#1006778 - 18/08/2011 19:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
This setup definitely looks interesting GFS and EC are both interested in the idea of an upper low and Deep onshore flow leading to potentially Large rainfall totals. Will be one to watch over the coming days to see how the models evolve. Certainly has me intrigued.


Edited by Scottie A (18/08/2011 19:01)
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#1006790 - 18/08/2011 19:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Scottie A]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Has me intrigued as much because it looks like such a summer setup, not something I'd expect to see at this time of year...Looks like some big totals coming up for this time of year...

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#1006804 - 18/08/2011 21:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: KevD]
Tarks Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 389
Loc: Moorooka ( Archerfield )
We'll see. They will probably say %80 chance of 70mm of rain and then it'll be a beautiful day.

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#1006867 - 19/08/2011 09:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Tarks]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
PME is starting to increase precip totals now that more models are coming onboard and starting to get a better sniff of the situation. Still early days yet though... Starting to get excited about the prospect of a week or more of rain.




Edited by Scottie A (19/08/2011 09:29)
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#1006872 - 19/08/2011 09:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Scottie A]
Tarks Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 389
Loc: Moorooka ( Archerfield )
A week of rain in my hood would be welcomed.

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#1006884 - 19/08/2011 11:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Tarks]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1641
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
It has been quite a while since we have seen a good drop of rain on the forecast.
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#1006888 - 19/08/2011 12:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: pabloako]
GLEN TIPLER Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2009
Posts: 560
Loc: yatala
yep definatly will be one to watch and not something i would of expected this time of year either...but yeah beats the usuall boring dry trend for autum lol wink

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#1006911 - 19/08/2011 16:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: GLEN TIPLER]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7018
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Showery week on the way for sure but I wouldn't be backing any huge falls just yet.

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