For mine, I was very pleased to see this thread open up.

I found last year a bit frustrating when I could see something brewing out past 160 and it wasn't really mentioned much in the other thread because it has such a broad sweep and people were talking about other systems.

"A general discussion area for TCs both beyond and within 160 encompassing the Coral Sea (extends to within the Gulf and Eastern NT)". Sounds like a damn fine idea to me!

Also, can we please get over the unwritten 'rule' that people who have been here longest somehow have more of a say. There are people who lurk here (not me) who are have a meteriological qualification and/or have a wealth of experince who are 'new' and would likely know a heck of lot more than many old hands. If we get all hung up on this attitude we will end up with a forum populated by less than 10 people who will rapidly grow tired of talking to each other and having the same tired old arguments.

For all anyone knows the esteemed, infallable and perfect Burnsey could have joined up last week and be a 'newbie' we might never hear from if this place gets an elitest feel to it.

OK, a decision has been made (as Mick mentions) and this thread is now for general discussion for ALL Tropical Cyclone activity anywhere within the country, and for systems that could potentially affect the country.

Please feel free to ask questions, thoughts, general comments etc here and most importantly - have fun!

"Cyclones coooming up, now we can get the party started - yeah!"

Much prefer this to Pink's lyrics. Heh heh.

sorry if I am bothering you guys, but... I am 14 years old at the moment and I would love to get into meteorology... so how many cyclones does BoM estimate will affect Australia this cyclone season?

Your not bothering anyone, ask anything. The BoM haven't issued their outlook yet which is their official position on what they expect the season to be like. That will normally come out in October sometime. In the meantime there has been and will continue to be plenty of speculation of what this season will have in store for us. General consensus seems to be it could be a decent season with a neutral to La Nina pattern.

Oh... Okay thanks I really can not wait for this Cyclone Season! Was last years season 'Active' or was it normal? Because to me, it seemed pretty active.

Aww and I was just about to suggest we need to set up a thread to discuss boundaries for TC General discussion threads (since we already generated 3 pages of discussion on the subject).

Just kidding!!

All other things being equal odds must be on a quiet season for QLD. Going back through the history of crossings for our state signficant storms dont occur very often.

I think in recent seasons we've probably had an above average number of severe TC. No reason to expect this trend to continue IMHO.

A quiet season with only 1 crossing on average is our norm so I'll stick with that as my prediction and add that the one crossing is likely to be in the GOC.

Koolies I really want another Severe TC this season! I loved going through Yasi and I would definately go through it again if I could

I would not want to go through it again, Townsville got a bit more then Cairns and i didn't liek it at all. Glad i have moved a bit more inland.

For my money I still believe that we are heading into what will be an above-average season for TC formation in the GOC and the Coral Sea. Last season was decent - lots forming out in the western Pacific and generally moving fairly rapidly SE. The general lack of formation in the GOC and CS during last season was the result of generally unfavourable upper conditions. Too much wind shear for much of the period except for the brief period in which Yasi managed to slam us. But Yasi was an anomaly. This season looks set to provide us with neutral or weaker La Nina conditions at the height of the cyclone season, which are much closer to the atmospheric anomalies that gave us Yasi. I would be suprised if another Yasi-sized monster hit us again, but not so surprised if we got a Cat 3 or 4 at some point. In my opinion, we will be in for a big season. Things are shaping up nicely.

Heard some cane farmers talking the other day and they believed that a strong La Nina (last season) is not conductive for cyclone development and a weaker La Nina is more favorable for cyclone development. Is this right? I have tried 'googling' it but have found nothing.



Anything is possible and why so many people are fascinated by cyclones. For example in 1918 2 of the worst cyclones to impact Queensland happened within 2 months of each other. 21 January 932.6hPa Mackay and 10 March 926hPa Innisfail. This hasn't happened for awhile, could be this season who knows.

I have been reading this all these comments. I have asuggestion.Have good look through the Bureau's web site ( history and archives) and study the history of QLD and NE nsw cyclones and really go way back. Even though I have found it many times I always have so much trouble in finding it again.Hope one of you can do better than me. You will find it very interesting. I actually experienced some from 1967 such as Dinah,Barbara etc.

That seems to be the consensus - stronger La Nina episodes are less likely to provide upper anticylones that are conducive to 'building' cyclones that weaker La Nina episodes. I have studied the historical seasons and there does seem to be some truth in this historically.

It was okay for cairns cause they didnt have no power for 9 days. I never want to go through that again and chainsawing for 4 days straight. We lost so many trees.

I'd love to go through more cyclones, it's one of the highlights of living here, but not something as strong as Yasi. Cat 1/2 is good enough for me

I agree Trav. After 7 months of cleaning up what is left of my rainforrest in Bilyana, which meant countless hours of chainsawing, carting branches by hand, burning, raking, digging and planting - I have had my fill of severe cyclones for a while.

No power for 3 weeks which meant no water, no fans, no lighting for most of the time (we had a loan generator toward the end) whilst the initial cleanup went on. And on.

The trauma of seeing my little slice of paradise completely stripped of it's beauty in such a violent way broke my heart time and time again.

In Townsville we had no power for 3 and a half days and our larger trees were decimated. Which we cleaned up ourselves as well.

I'm under no illusions about where I choose to live though. We all live with cyclones here and they will strike from time to time, but I will never wish for one again.

Cyclones still do excite me despite all this, but for different reasons now.

Just be careful what you wish for...

The lounge seems to have leather recliners now. Acceptance! Nice one Boomer

I dont want to go thru having to house for 6 months (and counting) again! Altho, the hype and build up was quite immense...

Don`t mind me asking... but what is La Nina and El Nino? o.O

ol mate, indeed, I like the adrenaline of an approaching cyclone

But I'd never wish another Yasi on anyone. Keep it below cat 2. A little wind, and a bucketload of rain. That'll do it

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_nino
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a