So its ok to talk about the past 100yrs of cyclones. I think Aus has been pretty lucky... Coz i always wondered what would happen if a Cat 4/5 hit a capital city.... If anything FNQ structural buildings peob rate higher to any structure in a big city or surrounding suburbs. Though comeing up we will see a day and Yasi will seem like. Cat 3

Guys, I can understand what RD and the other mods are trying to do, any post that is and looks specific should really be posted in the correct thread, and most of the times the mods get it right, but I do believe RD got it wrong this time, no big deal, the lounge would probably be the hardest thread to moderate.

Fiji met have a new tropical depression listed.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F [1005HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 161.9E AT
140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.
SST AROUND 29C.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700 HPA. TD13F LIES UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE YET TO PICK THE SYSTEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OF FORECAST IN THE AREA.

2011/2012 Cyclone Seaon Summary.

Australian outlook for Wet Season was for above average number of Cyclones. BoM spokesman in december said possiblity of up to 14 cyclones this season.

Australian average is 12 according to BoM.

So 6/12 = 50% of forecasted average with 2 months to go.

Alenga WA 6/12/11 - 10/12/11 (Formed outside of AOR but entered it before is collapsed)
Fina Coral Sea 21/12/11 - 22/12/11
Grant NT/WA 25/12/11 - 30/12/11
Heidi WA 11/1/12 - 12/1/12
Iggy WA Jan 26/1/12 - 3/2/13
Jasmine Qld 4/2/12 - ?/2/12

Good analysis SBT.

I would suggest that given those months tend to have a reasonably high frequency of TC's we will either reach or at least get very close to the forecast number.

WA BoM are taking up the possibility fo at least one more forming over there before the end of March.

I thought I'd pop a post on TC Giovannathat pummelled Madagascar in here . Gusts to 150 knots when it hit the centre of the island.

http://earthsky.org/earth/strong-cyclone-giovanna-approaches-madagascar

lol another annular system - i thought they were rare, now two in the same week.

edit: been 30 recorded systems since 1995...32 now

the system that the bom have been monitoring has turned cyclonic outside 90E

Extra Tropical Transitions occur when systems interact with mid latitude upper jet structures - it is not directly related to the temperature of the ocean surface.

For the most part traditional deepening mid latitude lows occur when a weak surface features move under the right exit or the left entrance of stong upper level jet streak.

Imagine that - instead of a weak surface feature with little moisture - you replace it with an intense TC with heaps of tropical moisture. The upper jet sweeps away the upper level anticyclone that sat over the top of the system, and replaces it with an increasingly cold atmosphere. The right exit and left entrance regions of jet streaks are "suck" zones - they will continue to lift air upwards and outwards from the system. But now there is warm very humid air near the surface and cold air aloft - with the air parcels being sucked upwards - BAZINGA - the system explodes.

Outflow from the convection adds to the jet streak - building it even more. The low begins to accelerate - captured by the mid level flow. Now - not only is there the rotational speed of the system - but the translation speed (say 20 knots) of the system as well adding to the winds on the eastern side. Winds expand out away from the centre - but still reaching 50 to 60 knots.. The strong convection leads to massive rainfalls on the western side with rainfall rates up to 100 to 200 mm an hour.

See TC Alby for a good example

Thanks he who once was ITN

I was having a look at some of the BOM data from Cyclone Larry where they state "whilst the lowest reported pressure was 959.3 hPa"
Yet looking back at the BOM's High seas weather warnings issued hours before landfall the BOM state the central pressure to be as low as 920hPa to a cental pressure of 945hPa 40 odd ks past Herberton, it does not make sense?

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 935 hectopascals centred at 191200
UTC near 17.5S 148.3 and moving westwards at 13 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to move in a general westerly direction.
These are from the High seas weather warnings....
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191800
UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots.
SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Larry with central pressure 945 hectopascals centred at 200000
UTC inland near 17.4S 145.1E and moving westwards, further inland, at 14 knots

959.3hPa was probably the lowest pressure actually recorded with a weather station. The 920hPa reading may have been an estimate derived from Dvorak analysis or something.

I don't know for sure if that's the case, just guessing.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Latest BoM MJ0 chart (read the links.... yes I know... for those unfamiliar it takes some time getting your head around it... but it's highly influential and is set to fire up both the west coast and CS cyclone season within the next few to six weeks).
Looks like its back in the Indian and heading our way (that little hook I'm unsure of... could it be related to the TC activity around Madagascar?)

Okay, I concede, we have lost.
I request that the cyclone lounge be shut down (I started it so I guess it's fair I request its demise).

I, along with several others, started the the cyclone lounge after the debacle of last year around the time of Yasi.
The intent was to create a space where there were no real rules as to what could be discussed.
WZ has not embraced the concept and is clearly content with its prior structure.
To that end, the Cyclone Lounge should be killed.

Nah, keep it going

This thread was never a war or competition that could be won or lost, that's an odd statement to make.

The reasons why the thread is failing:
-multiple cross posts
-people are totally ignoring the world forum
-you can't have a thread with 'no rules' (as proven by the current confusion)

Mods and admin have been discussing the pros and cons of this thread since its creation, and the overall opinion is that it will just not work.

We had already decided to close this thread at the end of the current season, but as Boomer has requested that it be closed now then so be it.

Please now use the relevant threads in the cyclone and world forums.