*edit*

This thread is for all general tropical cyclone discussion, no matter where you live in Australia. Please feel free to post any questions, thoughts, general comments here.

Any posts relating specifically to a current system should be in that particular thread.

Okay. To kick this off the BOM is predicting one (perhaps) severe Cat to cross the coast, but is hedging its bets by saying the current SOI looks neutral.
It's also saying bush fires and floods may be a problem (fair enough given last season). But Neutral... methinks more to the wet (and stormy) side.

As long as such cyclone stays away from the Cardwell and nearby regions, then OK

Cardwell, Innisfail, Tully, Mission, Babinda, El Arish et al.....

Thing is, any given year has an equal chance of a severe TC crossing the coast as these don't seem to have as much of a link with ENSO as weaker cyclones. Everything looked set for armageddon last year but we only ended up with 3 or 4 in the coral sea and a very small number overall for the country. It would be hard pressed to not beat those figures this year but as to whether any severe TC's will cross the coast, well that is almost impossible to say. Could be none,could be four.

ENSO wrap-up Issued on Wednesday 31 August (BOM)
Neutral conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, though a return to La Niña towards the end of 2011 cannot be ruled out. Trends over the past fortnight include further cooling of the central Pacific Ocean, persistent positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values and stronger than normal trade winds. However, cloud patterns are currently close to normal, and all indicators remain well short of the strong La Niña conditions evident at the same time last year.
The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO predict that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the southern spring. While no models suggest El Niño conditions are likely, half of the models predict further cooling over the coming season and into the southern summer.
It’s worth noting that since 1900, about half of all La Niña events re-emerged in the second year. Further cooling of the central Pacific Ocean coupled with persistent positive SOI values in the next few months would further increase the chance of a La Niña event at the end of 2011.

Correct me if I am wrong but the experimental indicates a distinct tendency to a late but strong season.
"The Bureau's POAMA model predicts that the central Pacific Ocean temperatures will favour neutral conditions to persist throughout the outlook period. The Bureau is currently trialling an experimental version of its POAMA model. Over the next few months, both the official and experimental (POAMA-2) versions of the model will be shown in the table below. Outlooks from the two models are likely to contain some differences, primarily due to the different ways in which the ocean is treated."
See link.... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

I think we will have a quiet yet wet season with no significant cyclones (Cat 3 or above) impacting on the north coast of Qld (below cairns).

Just a hunch and not putting anymore than a dollar on it.

What about above Cairns... as you know a big one north of Cairns will swipe Townsville, if not wind wise then certainly by the bucket.

Ahh I reckon a return to some big gnarley cyclones in the west this year especially later into Feb/Mar. WA had a year off any major crossings last year and gave Qld a year to remember although alot in WA did show potential most didn't devlope until right out around the NWest Cape.

This season a more stock standard season by the looks of it which should include 6-7 cyclones in WA which 1 or 2 may be severe. Just a hunch but usually in WA you can back it in to produce the goods in a usual year. As for Qld well thats another 20,000 post discussion lol. Nahh I hope you guys at least get something decent thats not too destructive just to keep the interest flowing in all you weather crazed individuals over there. Heres to an exciting wet season/cyclone season for all. Getting closer by the day.

Hey Boomer I just noticed your boundaries for discussion. Ahhh leaving us out again. lol. Always leaving the best out. ha ha. I suppose if we had a general discussion in the west it wouldn't amount to much. But would be good to think what peoples thoughts are overall for the entire tropics of OZ. GOOD, Mediocre, poor season?

I think the thread should be extended to include all the tropical zone. The weather watchers from the West, and Darwin too, have a lot of expertize and a unique perspective that we can all benefit by sharing.

Sincere apologies to the the west.
We had a few issues here last year re encompassing all of the east coast, especially when things were brewing outside of the Oz area (160).
Perhaps a west coast cyclone lounge (I reckon to incorporate both would be very difficult... especially when both sides of the maritime spin up).
After all Oz responsibility extends way, way out WA wise.
Any further discussion is most seriously welcome.

I thaught this Lounge was for general discussion and exchange of information throughout the season, not for individual events. If so why can't it encompass all the tropics.?? There aren't enough members on the West coast for a west coast cyclone lounge.

instead of having confusion i think its best that we stick to the normal threads we have for TC's which are:

Coral Sea TC Season 2011/12
NT/Gulf TC Season 2011/12
WA TC Season 2011/12

and anything outside 160E in the world section.

or something similar, like we have had for the past few years....dont see the point in having confusing topic names....? my thoughts anyway

Cloudz... nobody would ever be excluded. The idea is to free up discussion that currently can cause people to be booted from a forum unless they discuss distinct areas. Having said that I take your point. The very idea of this thread is to incorporate more people with both interest and experience... but not at risk of exclusion should they cross the mods line.
So.. how do we incorporate such a wide area?

SCHUMMY... I totally disagree. You have been on this forum long enough to know the current system failed last season. At the very least the cyclone lounge allows discussion outside of 160.. where last I heard TC's that cross the OZ coast often form.

SCHUMMY... Sorry if that sounded trite.... I apologise. What I meant to say is that last year there many on the forum who wished to discuss weather patterns outside of 160 within the Coral Sea Cyclone Forum. Several were banned for doing so. I believe that was wrong (how can we honestly in context discuss TC's within the Coral Sea and exclude beyond 160?). Hence this lounge.

I must be missing something, I still don't understand why it can't just be open to anyone genuinely interested. Why does it have to have boundaries at all? It's a discussion Lounge. I post in threads all over the country and o/s. Am i not allowed to do that?

i know what you meant boomer haha ive also been here long enough to know that the current system has worked in the past

they put the 160E east thread in the world section because the BoM doesnt deal with any systems past that point and i would imagine that WZ wants to keep things similar like that, hence the 3 different threads for the different regions.

why have a bit of this AOR, a bit of that AOR in the one thread?

simple, if you want to talk about systems past 160E, the world forum is the place because its not part our AOR, yes systems can move into the CS but then the thread can get moved if it is likely to impact our coastline.

there have already been confusions with this thread, what makes you think a new member will know to post in here? they dont....

but in the end it is up to the mods which system is used, just gotta wait and see if the system has been modified or not....too early for a TC thread anyway because the outlooks dont come out for another month from BoM....