Page 7 of 13 < 1 2 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 12 13 >
Topic Options
#1010914 - 08/09/2011 22:38 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: ColdsnapIII]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Coldsnapll
whats the chances of snow on the mountains in VIC tonight?. The temps are starting to drop very quickly atm and there is a rain band approaching on the southern mainland atm.
What temp is it on Mt Macedon now and the dew point.?
Jane Bunn was on TV just before. She said snow to 700m in the east of the state and snow to 900m in the west of the state tomorrow.
I was thinking a good possibility tonight.
Mt William currently 0.1 deg C with a shower band approaching
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1010930 - 09/09/2011 00:16 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: crikey]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Thats what I thought this fizzer NT 'event ' in the first place , we should focus what Victoria will get out this .
Not much , Iam dry my water tanks are emty , 5 mm of hail or shine I settle for it .

Top
#1010943 - 09/09/2011 03:51 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Laurier Williams Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2001
Posts: 2192
Loc: Millthorpe, 970m, Central W NS...
Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
Laurier, GFS is the one model that clearly has quite decent snow over the CT's at 10pm tomorrow. Notice the little precipitation patch right over the CT's that is fully within the cold 850's (-2) and cold 500's (-28).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rausavn364.html
This will update after 9pm then you need to change to this one at +30h
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rausavn304.html
Will be interesting if it hold at the 06z initialization.

Peter, you are right about the patch of precipitation on the 00z GFS forecast - I ignored it from a CT point of view because the high-scale BSCH charts had it dumping about 5mm in the Taralga/Crookwell area between 5 and 8pm, when the 925hPa temp was around 6, after which only very light and patchy precip continued in the Bathurst area for a few hours with a 925 temp dropping to 3.

However, it has been an intriguing and persistent feature again on the 06z chart and I now find it on both the GFS and ACCESS-R 12z charts. It appears to be a localised rain area being dragged NNE up the ranges just behind the upper cold pool which GFS has at <-29 and ACCESS-R at <-28. GFS has the centre of the 500 cold pool tracking from Griffith at 4pm today to Mudgee 10pm to Hunter Valley 4am Saturday to Mid North Coast 7am after which it is absorbed into the parent upper low in the southern Tasman.

GFS has a rain/snow area developing in the Taralga/Crookwell area by 7pm tonight then moving north to Oberon by 10pm, upper Hunter Valley by 4am and then dying out as it moves into the southern NT, though 2 or 3mm should still make it to north of Guyra. The rain/snow in some areas looks like being quite substantial - from Taralga/Crookwell to around Oberon, GFS has it dropping 7 to 11mm. Unfortunately, whether this will fall as rain or snow is (as Peter said) very borderline. The temperatures are very messy as [this chart] for 10pm tonight shows - there's a bull's eye of 11mm in the Taralga/Crookwell area, but look how complex the temperatures are at 900hPa (around the 900 metre mark). By 1am [here] the 6-hour rainfall over the OP has been 6 to 7mm with 900hPa temps around 2-3, which would give snow at Oberon and Shooters, and move on to Yetholme. If you click the "+3" in the menu at the top, you can step through remaining times. The categorical snow charts (which indicate whether the model believes the precipitation will arrive at the ground as rain or snow) look good for OP northwards, western side of Barrington, higher parts of the Liverpool Ranges, then light falls up the Divide to Guyra and possibly the Qld border.

I think Peter's right in the distribution of snow he's suggesting, though I think there's the chance of a much bigger fall on the OP, possibly extending through to the north of Yetholme.
_________________________
Caution: Any items linked to in this post may change and become irrelevant or expire over time. Use good meteorological practice and ALWAYS check date and time on charts before using them.

Top
#1010952 - 09/09/2011 06:21 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: Laurier Williams]
floody Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/07/2006
Posts: 368
Loc: Bowral
Snow is back in the BoM forecast this morning (above 1100) and the charts look a little better. Not hopeful at all for the Highlands, but looking better for my snow chase tomorrow through Goulburn and Taralga to Oberon (unless I take the Wombeyan Caves route for fun).
Is there a secret snow chasers signal in case I see anyone else up around Shooters tomorrow afternoon?


Edited by floody (09/09/2011 06:22)

Top
#1010954 - 09/09/2011 06:24 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: Laurier Williams]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10343
Loc: Blue Mountains
Yes, well done Peter, ACCESSR and GFS are showing cold uppers for this evening and tot tots and 850hPa are good enough too. The two models I've briefly looked at above have improved since last night so it wouldn't surprise me to see wet snow or sleet in the upper BM tonight - above about 1000M to 1050M. Its quite a nice looking system but the details will be portrayed beyond the models, as we go into real-time today. Fun stuff.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1010961 - 09/09/2011 07:17 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Yes, those two little cold precipitation peaks are still there at 10pm tonight for CT's and 4am tomorrow for BT's and northwards to NT's. I see what you mean about the resolution Laurier can be tricky when its this close. I like EC this morning for 10pm tonight, notice the 5460m contour forming a nice strong northward pushing trough right up well over the CT. This really confirms it that this trough/cold change should make it over us tonight with some snow. Good luck Blizz and others hope you get some fun.

PS Acutally getting quite cold already atm, almost down to 3deg with cloud, light drops.


Edited by PeterDuke (09/09/2011 07:20)

Top
#1010969 - 09/09/2011 07:47 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: GrizzlyBear]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1791
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
temp has dropped from 6.9c at 6.15am to 4.6c now at 7.45am

still light/moderate rain


Edited by aslaws (09/09/2011 07:47)

Top
#1010976 - 09/09/2011 08:01 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: aslaws]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 879
Loc: Bowen
I like the look of the current set up and esp the strength of the cold surge comming from way south of tasmania if you check out the last 12 hr sat loop you can see a big push north.

Top
#1010984 - 09/09/2011 08:23 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: snowmad]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1791
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
pretty steady rain here ATM - we have only had about 4mm overnight so we are really on the southern edge of this rain here in Katoomba
4.3/3.9 now - nice to see it cool this morning - an interesting 12 hours to come

Top
#1011003 - 09/09/2011 09:04 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: aslaws]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10343
Loc: Blue Mountains
Just got an email from Ginkin from a local, 'snow has been falling off and on all morning'.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1011009 - 09/09/2011 09:17 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Snow flakes also falling at Yetholme, temp down to 2.0 now.

Top
#1011049 - 09/09/2011 10:04 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: GrizzlyBear]
AaronD Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 1017
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
This is a great sign :-) hopefully the rain holds on while the cold air keeps coming.

Top
#1011063 - 09/09/2011 10:25 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: AaronD]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
I only just noticed via close look at EC and 18z GFS that there is a pretty good chance for a little more snow for the CT's Sunday after 4pm in another cold front. The Snowies should also see a few cm out of that one.
Watching that little front line near Albury now, that should form the settling snow for the CT's this evening.

Top
#1011067 - 09/09/2011 10:29 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: GrizzlyBear]
raftcrew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2003
Posts: 286
Loc: Faulconbridge, NSW (Blue Mount...
That is a good sign. Looking at the sat pic, that snow is coming from the last of the big rain band that came through last night, so I think it tells us good news about the temps that are around in the uppers.

The thing I don't like is the sparsity of moisture in the cold air mass pushing up from the south, looks too dry to me for real significant falls. I still like Peter's quantity predictions now that we can see the air moving...

Top
#1011072 - 09/09/2011 10:34 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: crikey]
micheal Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/07/2011
Posts: 13
hi crikey just wanted to say thankyou for answering me that was very kind ive lived in the tropics most of my life been living in glen since christmas 2004 and seen the wonder of snow for the first time in my life only used to sweat rash and heat stroke lol. at the time of me writing this in glen 10:30am my thermometer is 5and a half and going down with the occasional sleet hopefully some snow when the temp gets low enough tonight

Top
#1011076 - 09/09/2011 10:39 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: micheal]
Fiona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/09/2009
Posts: 126
Loc: Delegate, S/T NSW
Very cold wind just starting to come through here.. Scattered low cloud cover..

Top
#1011085 - 09/09/2011 10:49 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: micheal]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10343
Loc: Blue Mountains
I like the look of the IR sat loop, especially the feature in E Victoria. ACCESSR shows that well. It is progged to move right over the CT later today/tonight then onwards to the NT. How productive it is, remains the key. Should be some nice snow showers on the OP.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1011090 - 09/09/2011 10:56 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: Blizzard]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Just got much darker in Bathurst - really heavy low cloud moving through from West and SW areas. A few drops but looks "menacing" - not often I've seen it look so "heavy" & black from that direction.

Definitely the change coming through - feels cooler too outside.

Top
#1011095 - 09/09/2011 11:09 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: DaveM]
AaronD Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 1017
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Im up near Newcastle at the moment, and its pouring down and the temp has dropped alot.
id love to be able to get out to Barring Tops.

Top
#1011106 - 09/09/2011 11:19 Re: The last big cold snap of 2011 8th-11th September? [Re: AaronD]
rhythm_flavour Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 22/01/2011
Posts: 15
Currently trying to figure out what my plan of attack will be for early Saturday morning. Am thinking heading out to Oberon/Shooters Hill might be the ticket. I think wherever I go tomorrow I'm unlikely to see any snow falling, but from what I can gather from the models and other peoples comments it seems that there's a good chance of some nice settling around the high parts of the OP with available moisture and cold temps Friday evening resulting in some decent snow showers. I do think however that this is very much a sit and wait kind of scenario, with the models being so indecisive around exact timings of particular aspects of this event.

With that in mind, anyone got any good suggestions for breakfast between Penrith and Oberon? If I butter up the girlfriend with tasty food along the way it will make her more likely to join me on subsequent snow/storm chases!

Top
Page 7 of 13 < 1 2 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 12 13 >


Who's Online
2 registered (Eevo, 1 invisible), 280 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
bennnn23, jack63, MisterMikko, Spring
Forum Stats
29421 Members
32 Forums
23730 Topics
1469282 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image