Having (in the last couple of days) received over an inch in less than 24 hours from a pre-frontal trough and cold pool originating in the south-westerly direction, and having not being the only place in the region to receive this sort of rainfall at the intensity (solid pure-hail downpours), temperature (6 degrees), humidity (+90%) and pressure (sub-1000s)…this would suggest this is not an isolated system or isolated distribution of rainfall (my total not being the highest locally in the said period). It takes over 20 mins to drive from one side of the region affected at an average speed of 70 km/h to the other.

This lack of being an “isolated” event further suggests the cold fronts and not done with yet by a fair margin.

Well, I think that's actually happened a few times now this season - the southern half of Adelaide and the hills got all of what you described, but the northern half got dribs and drabs with no hail. I don't want to harp on it, but I cannot ever recall a proper hail shower since Sept. 1996. 15 years ago, in fact, 15 years and 1 day.

Perhaps, the cold fronts are not disappearing, but have moved south a bit over that time.

That's right Max Record, cool fronts for sure with rain but strong cold fronts are fading more each decade, ATM. I'm not suggesting that is all AGW, I just don't know but they are fading.

Fading or not, it doesn't seem to explain why the linear trend in Adelaide's monthly rainfall history is very near flat.

Blizz and Cosmic are probably both right.
I have posted previously that the BOM has a research project now under way to try and understand the reasons as to why a large area of generally higher pressure has settled in over the eastern third of Australia for nearly a decade and and a half now.
This is most noticeable during winter and spring here in the SE where the cold front's booming in across the Bight run through SA dropping quite good rains across the Eyre Peninsula and most of the way across SA until some where east of Adelaide the fronts and the main strength in the systems suddenly shear off to the SE down along the SA's SE coast leaving only a much weaker residue of the frontal system to cross the SE of the continent.
Watch rainfall prediction maps and the actual radar as the heavy rainfall comes steaming in across and under Adelaide in a NW / SE band towards the SA's SE coast and watch the way those same rain bands suddenly lose strength as they run up almost against the SE coast and then run down parallel to the coast towards Tasmania.

When the front's remnants reach the Tasman it again strengthens into a decent low pressure or a strong east coast trough which then accumulates moisture from the warmer Tasman and may drop some heavy rain on the south east coastal areas.
Why this happens is the subject of some BOM and CSIRO research as it does seem to have a large effect on the winter rainfall in the Eastern Mallee parts of SA and across the western half of Victoria.

But it does explain Cosmic's normal rainfall records in SA and Blizz's regular complaining about no decent fronts and lower rainfall and little snow in Vic's central eastern mountain areas and NSW's SE mountain regions.

And humans are prone to remembering the bits of the past that to them seemed to be much better than the present and in my own personal experience when I have gone back and actually checked the records for those past times and when looked at over a period of years, not individual seasons, sometimes to my chagrin those collective past year's records weren't all that much different to the present.

To suggest that decrease in rainfall anywhere in the world must coincide with a decrease in cold fronts is simply not true. Rainfall must still fall when the factors of moisture and instability add up to mean rain, how this happens and where this happens has multitudes of ways to happen. That is why the rainfall trends can remain completely flat regardless of what cold fronts do. Its more the rainfall distribution in time that is affected by the lack of cold fronts. Rainfall can fall over shorter periods and irregular and more erratically which is what is happening. The cold fronts gave the rainfall pattern an evenly distributed rhythm, but now the rain is harder to predict since it does not follow traditional regularity.

That lack of regular northern pushing fronts that use to pass across central NSW from the SW is very stark and is related to the high pressure ridge that forms in the SE as ROM mentioned. What has caused this shift in the last 15 years, who knows, but all options are on the table.

But who cares Peter? What is happening is happening because it is the weather!!! It will do what ever it likes no matter how intelligent we humans think we are and try and control it. What a joke!

The weather will do what it wants to do whether its natural cycles or for other reasons.

Everyone who talks about it !

Climate change threatens alpine snowfall: report
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/climate-change-threatens-alpine-snowfall-report/19009

I guess I cannot argue very strongly that what they write is not true. All I can say is that I hope it does not happen although it would be a safer bet that it will. But there is still a little hope that it might not happen, we could get hit by cosmic dust, a meteor, major volcanic eruptions. Still some chance that some unexpected feedback mechanism could swing the climate back to colder for a while. Eg warming triggering a major shift in ocean currents that upwells deep cold water from under the ocean and cools the climate.

The main reassuring fact is that no one can still explain very well why the last ice age started and ended, I certainly do not buy any of the orbital change arguments. Simple reason being that orbital changes follow perfect gradual patterns while the changes in climate do not, as well that the figures just do not add up at all. So we simply have next to no idea why those changes happened. That means that something unforeseen could still happen.

I think its time to revisit this thread because evidence seems to be mounting as to just how drastic the change in climate has been in SE Australia in the last 40 years. After revisiting some of the discussions from the Alpine Snow threads I am even more shocked just how much the climate has changed and how fast.

Snow falls really have decreased a very noticeable notch every decade since the 1960's. Before I thought the massive 1965 snowfall was almost a one off mentioned in this news report
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAzVSRDfNUU&list=UUVgO39Bk5sMo66-6o6Spn6Q&index=6&feature=plcp
But there were many others like this one in 1970 taken at only 900m elevation on the edge of Lithgow
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bdayling/7159574525/
Then mentioned by Laurier there was another massive snow in 1974 with 5ft drifts on the CT's

I remember how during the 1970's the BT's had continuous snow cover for about 2 month each winter from mid June to Mid August. On some winters the BT's were cut off by deep snow for weeks.

The evidence is just too long to list here but has been covered to some extent by pages and pages of discussion and historical notes in the various snow threads.

The way this winter is unfolding so far this year is again driving home just how much the climate is warming, its just staggering just how strong AGW really is. Every winter the CT's have been struggling more to get snowfalls at any temperature below zero, as result snow has become almost non existent even in Katoomba. The first snowfall this winter on the CT's has been very disappointing with very high temperatures. What shocked me is that the snowfall this week was from the same synoptic pattern as the last decent snowfall on the CT's last July, but temps during the snow bottomed out at +0.4 while last year it was -0.1. This almost suggests another 0.5deg has been added to the climate. Of course that is too much, but maybe it is a another decimal in one year.

Time is running out, every indicator was good for this winter to be quite decent, yet we are so far having a winter like one of the worst winters on record. There is still time for this to turn around, but time really is running out. If weather models have not changed massively in 4 weeks from today then there can be no denying strong AGW warming worst case scenario.

Just look at the state of the USA, no winter at all the one just gone, so warm no living person has ever experienced anything like it. Spring was also warmest on record, summer is no joke either, last summer was shocking too. The evidence for AGW is just too long to list and too conclusive to doubt.

The decades of snow in SE Australia;
1960's; Big snow years 1965 event.
1970's; Lot of good snow events 70, 74, snow on BT's most winters for 2 month, but the first crack appeared in 1973 with a very bad season.
1980's; Few more cracks with 1980 drought, 1983 bad season, some unusual heatwaves. But at the same time the 84 event and many good years 85,86.
1990's; More cracks, 93, 97,98, some exceptional warmth, but still good years 90,91,92. The strange year of 95 with the record spring heat but still good winter. Clearly remember noticing how springs warmed faster winters not quite as consistent.
2000's; Bad droughts, record heat, many bad years, still one good year 2000.
2010's; snow falling at higher temperatures in 2010, 2011 just ok but no snow falling below -1 on the CT's last snow in SE event snow fell at -0.1. 2012, first snow very warm at +0.4 from SE event, first signs of weakness of winter setting in. No cold fronts no cold temps.
What will the rest of 2010's be like??.

By extrapolating this trend you could predict that the CT's will be completely snow free each winter by 2030. The snow in the Snowies could be too marginal for skiing by 2040.

Not a bad start in our area.... Season opened this wend with plenty of snow... There all laughing up on the slopes..... Personally, they can bloody have it!!!!!!

Peter - all correct. However, how much snow was there in the 20's 30's and 40's?

See graph Page 3 of http://www.holtonweather.com/WHAT%20IS%2...LIAN%20ALPS.pdf

The trends do not indicate what you have suggested Peter

Exactly Arnost, that period was the warmest of the last 2 centuries.

The last 30 years were not unexpected, a normal response to the pdo cycles.

True, it was probably a little warmer before 1960 in the first half of the last century. However I think our knowledge before about 1960 or 1950 is also quite sketchy.

There were not the large networks of observations that have been developed not until after the middle of last century. To put too much weight on early observations is not wise. Even to put too much weight on any observations even now is fraught with risk and error.

It is unfortunate that we do not have better records going further back. The best knowledge is still only of the last 50 years. Thing is too though that there is also documentation of quite heavy widespread snow in the SE even in the first half of last century.

And thats a good reason Peter why it wont be apparent what is happening for another century or two, when we can fully observe all of the cycles that are currently taking place over many decades.

SNOW DEPTH TREND DATA produced by the snowy mountains electricity authority , agrees with PETER DUKE's concern that the annual snow depth has been declining

Had a very quick look at ENSO both SOI and ONI and found no correlations with ENSO in the peaks and falls in the snow depth time series
BOM education unit provides some interesting facts on snow fall extremes
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/temp5.htm
also checked PDO cycle and there has been one complete cycle( sine wave pattern)and snow depth doesn't seem to follow a sine wave pattern


There is a distinct trend in the snow depth decreasing linearly over time and a decrease in the amplitude of the high and low values of snow depth ( as though oscillation 'power' has declined)



Hopefully as we move toward a solar minimum by 2033 ( scafetta) the snow depth tide may turn?? and grand minimum later

Crikey I dont have time to find it but ROM posted a graph on the SAM which has been in a steady warming trend there might be a closer match with that.

As I said earlier, here U will find the snow levels back to 1927 ie 1927 to almost current shown from all historical data that I copiled in detail.
http://www.holtonweather.com/WHAT%20IS%2...LIAN%20ALPS.pdf