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#1016722 - 03/10/2011 10:41 Southern W.A Front/ Cold Pool Weekend 7th-9th October
snowbaby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/08/2009
Posts: 295
Loc: Albany, W.A
Bit to like about cold pool forecast for next Sat-Sun. Still examining detail but from brief look over GFS looks best with 500 temps at least -25c lingering early sat night thru till late evening 850 temps down to -2 later on Sat into Sunday. Ecmwf has things nicely set up for Sat morning with sub zero looking set to push through the southern areas Saturday, tho it also has it all falling away very rapidly late Saturday. Has been fairly consistent in last few runs.

Holding back on this one tho for the moment as the GFS runs particularly has been bouncing about a lot. Hopefully some promise for the “s” word yet.

Update:GFS 18z has swung back towards 2October 00z run (after 12z looked quite insipid again) - has 850 temps around -4C over Albany tho eased back a bit on 500 temps. Long way to go and I wont really believe it until see more GFS runs on this one.

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#1016892 - 04/10/2011 10:27 Re: Southern W.A Front/ Cold Pool Weekend 7th-9th October [Re: snowbaby]
snowbaby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/08/2009
Posts: 295
Loc: Albany, W.A
As an event weekend has taken a bit of a dip.Looks like a pretty weak situation without quite enough moisture.Moisture and temp profiles in the soundings look very discouraging on some of the runs. Unless there's upgrading from here cant see a lot in it. Cant access Ecmwf this morn - and a number of other offshore sites as well - wonder if a co-ax has been cut?

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#1017262 - 05/10/2011 23:19 Re: Southern W.A Front/ Cold Pool Weekend 7th-9th October [Re: snowbaby]
snowbaby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/08/2009
Posts: 295
Loc: Albany, W.A
At this late stage I’d say Saturday for the s word is about as marginal as it gets. GFS and Ecmwf look pretty ordinary - Bom is possibly the best look with a little more moisture forecast and the 5520 geopotential height for 500hPa (generally regarded as a minimum for snow conditions) pushing almost as far as Perth. Lot of other factors not so favourable, though at least a little south-south easter should give some upward lift onto the Stirlings(because of the range's orientation). I’d say it depends what tomorrow’s runs show from here on and from then on the sat pics - at best maybe a bit of sleet&snow falling Saturday but it is a long shot.


Edited by snowbaby (05/10/2011 23:21)

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