You guys are putting the pressure on
I've been busy chasing professional trolls hell bent on disrupting a perfectly good forum lately as some of you might have noticed.
Ok!. I've been poking around a bit into the local WA and south of Java region ARGO float arrays
[click a float to get the output & explanations are bottom "real time processing" ] to try and see if much was happening down under the surface.
Another source for local ARGO float data is the Australian Ocean Data Network.
If you click through a float here and there are lots of things to explore on this site, it will give the location and the all important ARGO ID number of the float.
Say in this case float ID 5900 146 which is located some 600 or 700 kms south west of Sumatra.
Clicking through the floats "Latest Profile Graphs" takes you back to IMOS page.
Click through "Temperature and salinity down to 2000 metres" and when the map comes up just click on the bracketed WMO number on top and then find your float number in the series.
Or simpler just take down the float ID and go straight to the Float ID series,
find your float and click for the temperature and salinity profile.
thats if the float you have selected is listed as reporting in during the last month as by now many, many of the 3000 floats have dissappeared or became non operational as battery life is exhausted after their initial deployment starting in 2003 but with replacements ongoing since.
The AMSR- E satellite which was used for another angle to the ARGO system and as a contrasting technology to measure a very limited distance under the surface for water temps with it's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer
system has given up the ghost to considerable consternation from a lot of quarters which had come to rely [ too much ] on the 9 year old sat.
So there are some gaps in the data coming in from the world's oceans now until a new sat is deployed in a another year or so.
All in all, there doesn't seem to much happening sub surface in the eastern Indian Ocean from the ARGO array.
The Western Australian Dept of Ag's Growing Season Outlook
for April is suggesting average winter rains for the eastern states grain areas.
Colder than normal waters are off the NW Australian coast but warmer than normal waters are down near the SW Australian coast.
The WA Australian forecast maps; The level of forecasting skill map is on the right
The NOAA SST maps
confirm the cooler waters off the NW coast, a situation that hasn't really changed for the last month or so.
The abrupt switch in colour at the zero anomaly point in the NOAA SST maps does lead to a false view on the differences in the SST's between areas.
A different and daily SST map which I hadn't come across before which is far more subtle in it's colour contrasts and probably conveys a better balance to the viewer of the differences in the SST's can be found here.http://www.oceanweather.com/data/
Another map that I also hadn't come across before in the CPC site provides a few clues on what the CPC thinks might be the short term outcomes in the IO.
It is from the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards Outlook
Last Updated: 05.08.12 Valid: 05.09.12 - 05.22.12
The MJO remained incoherent during the past week and anomalous tropical convection is scattered and generally unorganized on the large scale. The enhanced phase of an equatorial Rossby wave (ERW) is continuing to shift westward across Africa. Enhanced convection was observed over portions of northern South America and the southern Maritime continent, with suppressed convection across parts of the Indian Ocean. Tropical cyclone 19S developed north of Australia during the past week, but this system has already weakened.
Most of the dynamical model forecasts of the MJO index indicate very weak and incoherent signals during the next two weeks, so the MJO did not play any substantial role in the forecast this week. La Nina has transitioned to ENSO neutral conditions and this along with incoherent MJO activity makes the outlook primarily driven by numerical model guidance.
Enhanced rainfall is favored across much of central Africa from the Atlantic coastal areas across the central portion of the continent to the Greater Horn of Africa and is based on model guidance as well as the enhanced phase of the ERW. Greater than average odds for below-median rainfall is indicated across southern India, parts of the central and eastern Indian Ocean, primarily north of the equator and also over areas in nrothern South America. Wetter-than-average conditions are favored for portions of the southern Maritime continent (in part related to the remnants of TS19), the Caribbean, eastern Mexico and the Gulf coast states in the southern U.S. mainly based on model guidance. Above-average SST's also favor above-average rainfall for northwest South America.
During Week-2, there is lower coverage as a result of little MJO signal and the absence of La Nina. Enhanced rainfall is favored for parts of the Gulf of Guinea region in Africa associated with model guidance and the enhanced phase of the ERW. There are enhanced odds for above-average rainfall for portions of Central America and northwest South America where above-normal SSTs and model guidance indicate continued wetness. Model guidance favors below-median rainfall for an area in close proximity to the Philippines
Almost a hint of an extremely weak pos-IOD hint there in that map but nothing to really hang one's hat on in the way of a prediction.
And finally you have Bob Tisdales take on it all and he isn't biting at all as to what is going to happen this season.La Nada, El Niņo, or Three-Peat La Niņa for 2012/13 ENSO Season?
My take is that we are heading for a very near neutral year re the IOD as something should be starting to turn up in the SST's by now although the IOD of whatever colour doesn't normally get wound up until into July.
The ENSO also looks like it might almost be a non event as it too should be showing some more serious signs of drifting one way or another .
If anything maybe a very weak El Nino which would be typical of a negative PDO phase and which is likely to be the future of the ENSO El Nino phase for most of the next 30 years or so while the PDO stays negative.
This would explain the Western Australians suggestion that Queensland might be a bit on the dry side but the SE will probably get an average season what ever that is these days as a very weak El Nino effects just don't penetrate into the western side of Vic very much or at least westward past say the Pyrenees range in central west Vic.
And for some reason, maybe the SAM phase at the moment, the water vapour out of the western Pacific Warm Pool is staying up around the equator and is not feeding down into the Southern areas of the IO. Until that starts to happen we just sit on our hands and wait as without that infeed from the westerly flowing water vapour and winds in the equatorial regions, any rain we get here in the SE will be quite light at least in the western parts of the state.
And the rainfall in the SE won't be helped by the intensifying cold of this season so far.
Sadly I strongly suspect that we had better get use to the cold if the Russians and a whole range of solar physicists are right about future solar activity.
And with cold comes dry air and reduced rainfall in man but not all regions.
But where we won't know for quite a few years yet.
I'll be back soon for another go at this so be gentle if I am wrong as usual.