http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01206270614.GIF

Here are the twins earlier discussed (Click on weather map)
http://www.met.gov.sb/

Upgraded by JTWC to a medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6S
152.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 153.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282154Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS VERY
TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING CURVATURE AND A PRONOUNCED HOOK IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A 281057Z ASCAT
BULL'S-EYE PASS SHOWED 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10
KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT
THERE IS A LACK OF EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE DISTURBANCE HAS SLOWLY
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DRAGGED ACROSS THE LOUISIADE
ARCHIPELAGO OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS BUT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION, ALBEIT SMALL IN DIAMETER, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN LOBES OF THE NER,
WHICH IS WHY THE TRACK MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY DEPICTS THE NER TO BUILD IN VERY STRONG NORTH
OF THE LLCC AND THEREBY DRIVE IT WESTWARDS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) SHOULD INCREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST THAT NEAR WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) COULD BE BRIEFLY MET
BEFORE THE VWS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. SINCE THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC HAS
BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

JTWC have issues a cyclone formation alert for this system.

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 154.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST HAS COOLED AS THE CYCLONE
SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
A 290816Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND FROM A
291057Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND DEFLECT THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT-OF-PHASE
WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STORM MOTION. DURING THE TRANSITION IN THE
STEERING PATTERN, THE SYSTEM MAY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY BEFORE THE STRONG
VWS DISSIPATES IT BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
WIDELY SPREAD, THEREFORE, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 291000Z JUN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 291000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.


WTPS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.2S 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.6S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.1S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.7S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---

and the BOM cyclone outlook is still offline for the winter. surely it rates a small chance atleast?

but wind warnings remain in place -

PART 1 WARNINGS
Gale warning issued by Brisbane at 191745UTC for the area within 60NM of the
centre in the southern semicircle of a low near 12.4S 155.2E.

PART 2 SITUATION
At 291800UTC.
Low [996 hPa] near 12.4S 155.2E, moving SSE 4 knots. Low expected near 12.8S
155.4E at 300000UTC and near 13.5S 155.8E at 301200UTC, then little movement.
Trough from 3S142E to 7S154E to low to 20S162E to 28S161E. The trough is
expected to move to 2S142E to 5S153E to low to 22S170E at 302300UTC.

PART 3 FORECAST
Within 100NM of tropical low.
Clockwise winds 20 to 33 knots, reaching 34 to 40 knots within 60NM in the
southern semicircle. Rough to very rough seas. Rain areas and occasional
thunderstorms.


GALE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 291700 UTC.
A low [996 hPa] was located near 12.4S 155.2E and is moving to the south
south-east at 4 knots. The low is expected to be near 12.8S 155.4E at 300000UTC
and near 13.5S 155.8E at 301200UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nm of centre in southern semicircle.

FORECAST
Expect NE to SE winds 34 to 40 knots. Rough seas and moderate E to NE swells.

The LLCC although decoupled still is pretty tight and showing sporadic bursts of convection. With the movement back towards the equator perhaps the shear conditions will ease a little and give it some chance.

has weakened somewhat during the day, when really it should be at its diurnal maximum,

CANCELLATION OF GALE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 300000 UTC.
A low [1002 hPa] was re-located near 11.1S 154.8E moving northwest at 4 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Winds no longer expected to exceed 34 knots. Rough seas and moderate E to NE
swells.

What can an El Nino do for this coming cyclone season??

less tropical cyclones form in the Coral Sea as a general rule

Ahem

El Nino generally means more TCs
Increasing risk of El Niño in 2012
Issued on Tuesday 3 July | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Climate indicators continue to show a shift towards El Niño, in line with most model predictions. Eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued to warm over the past fortnight, while trade winds have remained weaker than normal. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has become more strongly negative over the past month.
Tropical Pacific Ocean observations are consistent with previous and current climate model forecasts, which have indicated that the tropical Pacific may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds sometime between mid-winter and spring 2012.
During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. About half of the outlooks from POAMA, the Bureau’s climate model, indicate the possibility of a weak positive IOD event developing during winter or spring. Should a positive IOD event eventuate with an El Niño event, this increases the likelihood of dry conditions over southern Australia.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P.... for future reference
The South Pacific hurricane Tropical Depression season normally ends in April but Tropical Depression 21P has developed in the South Pacific Ocean between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands from "System 91P," a low pressure area. NASA's TRMM Satellite passed over Tropical Depression 21P and captured rainfall dates and cloud heights.

TRMM is the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite that is managed by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency, JAXA.

The center of Tropical Depression 21P was directly beneath the TRMM satellite when it passed over on June 28, 2012 at 2225 UTC (~8:25 a.m. local time). A rainfall analysis using data from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) instruments showed that the tropical cyclone, although small, was well organized and contained some intense convective storms dropping rainfall at a rate of over 50mm/hr (~2 inches).


(Photo Credit: )
At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., Hal Pierce of the NASA TRMM Team created a 3-D view of Tropical Cyclone 21P using TRMM's Precipitation Radar data. The 3-D image showed that some of the storms around the tropical cyclone were reaching heights of at least 15km (~9.3 miles). Tropical Depression 21P didn't reach tropical storm force, however, and faded in the Coral Sea over the past weekend (June 30-July 1) due to adverse atmospheric conditions.

Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIBQIjnlC_k
This would have been named had it occurred during our designated season.
Yet the BoM totally ignored it as it did not fit into their calendar as to where TCs are expected.
Shame on the BoM re this one... you forgot the sailors and those on line who rely on your wider knowledge.

generally less than average due to the fact that El nino tends to bring more westerly winds at all levels

El Niño and La Niña

The Southwest Pacific tropics shows a distinct correlation during El Niño and La Niña years. El Niño is characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. This is in contrast to La Niña events, which are defined by unusually cold waters in the equatorial Pacific. During El Niño years, there are usually fewer tropical cyclones but a higher percentage of them become intense cyclones, of Category 2 or higher over the Coral Sea. This is due to a smaller area of warmer sea-surface temperatures over this region. When development does occur in this region, it is usually from the Coral Sea eastward to 170E. Tropical cyclones develop more frequently east of the International Dateline (see figure 4). The more eastern development takes place due to warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures during a strong El Niño year, which allows for tropical cyclone development to occur east of the International Dateline, and sometimes as far west as the Arafura Sea and
Gulf of Carpentaria.

Squid is right. In general, you'd expect less tropical cyclones to form in the Coral Sea during an El Nino. In-fact most of the Australian Area of Responsibility will, on average, experience less tropical cyclones during El Nino. Except the Gulf of Carpentaria which, on average, experiences more tropical cyclone activity during an El Nino.
Have a look at the following maps:
El Nino years: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/tropical-cyclones/index.jsp?period=eln

La Nina years: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/tropical-cyclones/index.jsp?period=lan

(Also, Neutral years: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/tropical-cyclones/index.jsp?period=neut)

Theory versus reality

Note it

I probably wouldn't call it theory. The map's data is based on 'reality', the 36 year period from the 1969/70 tropical cyclone season to the 2005/06 tropical cyclone season. The data over this period has shown that there is a tendency for less tropical cyclones to occur during El Nino years in the Coral Sea (and most of the Australian Area of Responsibility).

Sorry,
But the maps show virtually nothing.
Vague is an under statement