If you're going to argue an opposing view, please provide some evidence.

I'm not sure how Boomer can argue the evidence provided there BUT,

The last 7 or so years haven't exactly agreed with history. The last two out of three La-Nina episodes failed to deliver while we've had more action seemingly occur during Ninos and neutral years! Just goes to show that every season is different no matter what ENSO state we're in.

Firstly… apologies for throwing up an opinion without back up…. more than fair point.
In regard to this (ongoing) debate it is accepted by the relevant authorities that El Nino results in less cyclones.
However… if you look at the attached charts and relate El Nino and neutral years to the amount of TCs that formed in the South Pac over the past 20 years that correlation is thrown into doubt (assuming of course the Wiki data is correct… we can assume the long paddock stuff is).
As you can see it appears that a combination of an El Nino and neutral years seems to favour serious activity.
There are of course other factors involved in relation to convergence zones, MJO and monsoonal strengths, equatorial flows etc.
While there is little doubt there is less rain with El Nino… the evidence on the ground (while theoretically correct) is not overwhelming that there will be less cyclones.


El Nino / La Nina

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/products/australiasvariableclimate/ensoyearclassification.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_South_Pacific_cyclone_seasons

In addition note this excerpt from the Fiji Met (full document link below).

"Tropical Cyclones affect Fiji between November to April, and occasionally in October and May in El Niño years. Between the 1969/1970 and 2009/2010 seasons, 70 tropical cyclones (Figure 6) passed within 400km of Suva, usually from the north-west. This represents an average of 1.71 per season. Tropical cyclones were most frequent in El Niño years (1.94 per season) and least frequent in La Niña years (1.40 per season). The neutral season average is 1.64. The inter-annual variability in the number of tropical cyclones in the vicinity of Suva is large, ranging from zero in some seasons to five in 2002/03. This variability makes it difficult to confidently identify any long- term trends in frequency."

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/PCCSP/pdf/3.Fiji_GH_Poster.pdf

Boomer ,

i would it would all come down to where exactly the SST anomalies were Occuring. Nina and Nino are not all identical , and to a certain extent the IOD would influence Nothern Aust . waters also . With the MJO having to share some of its intensity in each pass with the Timor Sea / Arafura and Indian Ocean .
Note that some Nina's are Modoki ( not as concentrated ) and same with some Nino 's . That central Pacific zone bounded by Solomons to Tonga and even the Cook islands could be given boosts as such in 2009/2010 . Which was obviously a Nino . Then it can come down to steering influences where cyclogenisis could occur outside Aust. waters and they still steer into our waters and linger . As opposed to the 2010/2011 LaNina which was coupled with or followed on from a Strong Negative IOD . As mentioned at the Start , the Coral Sea although well warm , had to share Atmospheric Disturbances with exceptionally large area of above average SST's that could and did spread out potential Genesis , but also inturn had a negative effect of " over water atmospheric disturbances " and instead most convergences and disturbances either started or peaked whilst over land . Hence heavy flooding throughout Northern and Central Aust . From many storms which never reached Cyclone intensity . Eventually there was so much moisture water lying around over so much of the Continental land mass that even the disturbances over land lost their instensity and the La Nina ended in a Hurry .
Only theory though .

Not a bad one, but it does emphasise that El Nino/La Nina effects are just part of the puzzle and to assume that La Nina or La Nino means more or less cyclones in themselves is worthy of further discussion.

Hello Matthew, to what do we owe the pleasure (for those who are unaware, Matthew was one of the originators of WZ)?

weak cyclogenisis pfft and all we are getting futher north is fog, coral sea has the monsoon sitting ten south because of the lanina arrow, and the soi after its winter drop is already climbing

Now we have an active disturbance at 163e 8s, in past years i haven't seen a disturbance like this in the winter months, could mean an end to suppressed cyclone activity for northern australia in the coming cyclone season.

Where exactly is the LLCC in all of this?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shsolomon.html

Shear is not too bad.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

And BTW... why does the NZ Met do the forecasts for the Solomons?

If you are into lows then enlarge the satellite screen to your right... models show it dipping below 1000hpa on NZ land.

enough. closing this thread down.

North east coral sea is more active than normal, been watching the cyclogenesis slowly moved southeastward along the png periphery, early cyclone season starting to wind up.

Happy New Cyclone Season everyone!

Personally, I hope that we don't see an early start to the season, as current sea surface anomalies are getting to the point where they would be able to sustain some decent convection, but a lack of deep ocean heat content would probably restrict anything to major from forming. The longer we see a buildup of the ocean heat content, the more likely it is that we will see some decent TC action later in the season.

Did last year's Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec allow enough heating in the ocean? I remember it being quite warm last year, but we had no cyclones last year (or earlier this year).

The warmth was building all through the period you mention, but it didn't get really warm until fairly late in the season - late February and into March, which corresponds with a massive increase in rainfall in NQ, but a poor cyclone season. I have been researching the patterns of warming and cooling, and movement of subsurface anomalies, and I will present my work once I have had time to do sufficient analysis. Compared to early 2011, when oceanic heat in the western Pacific peaked in January/February, last season was a complete dud.

SST's arent the be all and end all of a cyclone though. Low wind shear and marginal sst's would be better in my opinion.

This thread guys: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1129754/5/Coral_Sea_Tropical_Cyclone_Sea
this is last years....