That got to be very close to some things to watch I call it only a low chance just to see what happen with the next few hours time.

All I know there might be some things developing hear Fiji at the moment it's is only a little small one at the moment it's might developing into some things later on down the track.

is that something developing in the CS to the west of New Cal????

Fiji I said before but yes there well could be a another way at that way.

**just re post update about that low hear New Cal right now**

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1035280#Post1035280

trough system in the coral sea creating some weather out there.
PART 2 SITUATION
At 261800UTC.
A trough from near 03S142E to 10S150E to 20S155E to 26S170E, moving west to near
10S148E to 19S147E by 272300UTC.

but no signs of a defined low, yet. not every thunderstorm cluster will form into a low within a few hours. give it time guys.

Thanks for that update hopefully I was onto some things there mate this afternoon.

Just keep down low for at the moment and see as you said before.

Wile-e-Coyote has a pressure cooker seal over Bugs Bunny's hole. Bugs Bunny saunters up to him munching on a carrot as Wile-e is adjusting various dials. Bugs says, 'what's cooking doc?' Wile-e sniggers, 'rabbit stew (triumphant pause) I'm such a genius'. Bugs calmly continues to munch on his carrot as he pointedly remarks, 'there's just one little thing missing'. Wile-e looks up with alarm and inquires, 'what's that?' Bugs nonchalantly replies, 'no rabbit'. And so is the case with this trough.

Thanks for the advice Brett guy. I thought as much but just wanted to see what other people thought.

I still believe there will be at least 1 TC Somewhere in the Solomons/ Fiji region BEFORE Xmas. Whether it gets steered West or even SW towards the AOR- its a matter of "wait and see".
The Solomons will be the hot spot again this season i reckon. All of our nasty TC's were from that area- Larry, Yasi.....

Larry and Yasi tracks
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/yasi.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/cyclone/tc_larry/
Mid December sees the return of the MJO... if it is going to happen, it will happen then

Looking at the 1km vis for the coral sea do I see hints of low level circulation forming out there? Run a loop of the last 8 images and you'll see what I mean. Shear is ok at moment but it gets nasty later in the week. SST's are borderline too.

Actually Occo. Yasi came from Waaaay east of the solomons.Not saying however that the solomons won't be the hotspot. You could be dead right there.

***Cyclone update for the coral sea***

It's looks like a little samll low out in the Queensland coral sea or a very close to a little cat 1 Tropical Cyclone it's looks like.



Their the link here if any one want to have a better look at it's or not.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

it does look like it is rotating a bit but still a trough that is due to cross the coast wed/thursday one thing we need to rember is that there is alot of people that are going to freak at every low that forms this season out there after yasi and we all need to keep cool calm and colective

I am with you there on that one.

This is the very good weather zone forums any way to be update during the 2011/12 cyclone season this pages is where I am going to stay tuned to any way as well the BOM web sites are my best two web sites so far.

It's a band of clouds Matthew, associated with a trough. There is zero chance of a cyclone forming here at the moment, SST's are still too low, no storm activity for it to form in, there is an upper low somewhere out there which will shear anything to pieces before it has a chance to kick off so no, there is NO cyclone forming out there ..... yet.

All well thanks for that update any way.

A lots has change since the past 24/48 hours now.

Nothing to watch Matthew.

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:33pm EST on Friday the 9th of December 2011 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday: Very low
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Very low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

Okay I might just left that as that them.

wait till next month