Absolutely, we can't wait - this Coral Sea 'thingy me bob' (no idea what it'll be yet so thingy me bob is about as scientific as I'm getting with it at the moment) is a little taste just to get us keen again. the big stuff is in the NW during March. MJO gets stuck there for a while before weakening out by the time it gets into the CS in mid to late March. Wind shear becomes favourable and long wave troughs dominate the SE Indian Ocean from weeks 2 onwards (which should mean recurving LOWS/cyclones towards the pilbara coast). Meanwhile it's all ridging in the Coral Sea for the next month, so if anything develops there watch out the Qld coastline!!! (mind you the forecast can't take into account short waves that might develop), but hey at least the long wave pattern is looking great on both sides of Oz.

You guys think that there will be much activity over April/Early May? or way too early to tell?

the reason it wasnt working properly was because it needed to be set up as an event in itself with the ability to have topics of its own to prevent cross posting.

The speed at which the mods have shut it down at boomers request speaks volumes about how commited they were to it and how hard they tried to make it work.

I look forward to the next major event and seeing what the mods and staff of weatherzone intended to do when sh!t gets out of control again and we end up with another system crash!

least we forget, RIP cyclone lounge.

And where will all the general chit chat go about upcoming, potential and past systems? (that was the purpose of the lounge to free up the Coral sea thread from all the general chit chat and banter)now the only place for them to go is here and then they will be shut down because they are off topic that is why a lot of people wont post in this thread for the fear of being pinged for being off topic.
If the cyclone lounge is not working because "you can't have a thread with 'no rules' (as proven by the current confusion)"
then why not introduce some rules and guidelines for that particular thread as with all of the other threads?

the prominant problem with that lounge thread was people were using it as dumping ground for everything and anything. without taking into consideration other current threads. members were reposting multiple posts on the same system in several different threads. while the world forum was basically being ignored.

if there are questions on the monsoon or mjo, there is a thread running on that. if there is a developing system, each state has its own thread, aswell as the respective areas in the world forum. if its local issue there are each individual local thread. there is already a current thread on how cyclones form, there is a thread on cyclone information and advice. these are threads that are often at the top of the list and most people will find (if they are willing to read) that most of their questions are already answered in many of them.
if someone has information on a previous cyclone then start a new thread on it, as has been the case with Althea, the 1887 & 1867 recently.
the reason these threads were started up and continue to be used is that all the information on that topic is kept within 1 thread. members are also more likely to have specific questions answered more promplty in an individual thread, more so than a generic type thread with several topics of disscussion taking place.

if anyone else has issues or questions, then please PM on of the mods.

I think some of the post can re move to this one here Mick10 might be just an idea Mick10 of that Tropical low you where talking about before may well move them all in here in the world forum pages in here.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1022969/4/South_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone

I like to know what do you think any way I will left that one with you Mick10 or Raindammit to do that would be very cool?

Access and EC have now dropped the CS low from the models I checked and are both interested in the GoC instead. Though Access does have a "speck" on it's charts well east of Cooktown at the end of its run.

No, the season ends at the start of April i believe. I think the sst's drop pretty quickly in april.

You can never rulle out a may cyclone. They are not common but they do occur and given how bizarre this season has been so far-who knows?

Can you name 1 that has affected QLD from the coral sea?

You'll find a few here

http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/summary_bom.htm

Interesting, 10 formed in the coral sea since records began and 2 crossed the coast.
Sorry if i seemed arrogant, i just couldn't recall a may cyclone forming in the coral sea.

Just as a side note, these were either tropical lows or barely Cat 1 systems which i assume would be because the sst's were barely able to support them.

access G forms a weak low in the GOC, EC has a weak low moving wsw across the coral sea before being shunted NW up to the cape, while CMC forecasts a developing low in the central coral sea. GFS, surprisingly the only one not forecasting a low to form next week.

I thought the bureau extended the season outlook into May.

It's is only some time if it's need hopefully that help you out.

Luma: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/cyclones-eastern.shtml Offically teh Cyclone Season is November and April but a rare cyclone can form in May as can be seen from records. I haven't been able to see anything offical on any BoM website saying that they are extending the season and without an offical statement it sounds like a rumour to me.

If you have a link feel free to post it here so we can all see it.

But for my money the implications of such an announcement would have to be very, very carefully assessed before they did so. The impact on the Insurance industry alone would be quite large not to mention the so called Tourist Industry.

I recall back in 2003 there were two Coral Sea cyclones in June. I remember posting in here about them. One was called Epi.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/455761/Re_Tropical_Cyclone_Epi#Post455761

From our facebook page for those without Facebook

Oz Cyclone Chasers Model Cyclone Update:

AREA 1 is now becoming our focus in the 10+ day time frame with Area 2 showing significantly less potential for development.

AREA 1 - Just off the Kimberley coastline. Modelling shows a weak LOW forming in this region between Tuesday and Thursday next week with a 70% confidence in this scenario. Models then have this weak LOW gradually strengthening by late next week and into next weekend. Multi models show a 20% chance of a tropical cyclone near the Pilbara coastline next weekend, with potential increasing further after that time (IF the LOW can remain over water). However that is too far away for us to continue looking at.

AREA 2 - In the Central/Northern Coral Sea. A trough is expected to form at the surface in the fresh easterly flow. However potential for a closed circulation (LOW or TC) has dropped significantly since yesterday. Multi models suggest a 25% chance of a LOW developing along that trough and a just 0-5% chance of a tropical cyclone developing. The trough or LOW should push west and dump plenty of rain on the east coast especially between Cooktown and Townsville (however still being a few days away, this area is subject to change). If the trough is the dominant feature we will see moderate to heavy rainfalls through much of the NE Qld coast, if the LOW develops we will see flooding falls, but they will be much more concentrated. I'm sure Queenslanders would prefer a trough system that dumps 50+mm over a wide coastal region.

Residents particularly in Western Australia's Pilbara and Kimberley coastlines need to begin preparing their cyclone kits now because your potential for cyclone development increases quite rapidly in early to mid March.

Yes SBT could be rubbish. I heard a news report over the radio so probably a case of poor media reporting. I meant to phrase previous statement as a question.

man, conditions over the CS are so good at the moment. Ec are showing some monsoon moving west from the pacific towards the end of their run too....HURRY UP, sooo fricken boring lol.