Here the BoM have update their Tropical Cyclone ooutlook for the coming up 2011/12 cyclone season.

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for Queensland


Summary: Communities urged to prepare early for the wet season.

The pre-season roadshow is underway in Queensland, as part of the annual planning process for the wet season.

Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Regional Director, Jim Davidson, said this year's roadshow had been further expanded to include a total of 13 seminars throughout the state to assist in preparation for the coming storm, cyclone and flood season.

"The roadshow is not a new concept, but there is certainly a heightened awareness of the impacts of severe weather and flooding following the events of last season."

"North Queensland still bears the scars of tropical cyclone Yasi which crossed the coast approximately mid-way between Cairns and Townsville earlier this year, and while the outlook for the coming wet season is considerably more favourable than last year, our climate models are still leaning toward a slightly above average outlook for tropical cyclone activity in Queensland."

"Predicting the number of tropical cyclones for the coming season is not an exact science, but rather a likely range. If we consider the average for Queensland as three to four, then we might be looking at a figure slightly higher, of four to five, with perhaps one or two making landfall. This is the scenario we need to be ready for, and preparation is key."

"While our climate models are trending toward La Niña, there is no indication the activity will be as widespread and intense as last season," said Mr Davidson.

"The roadshows encourage a partnership approach to emergency management across Queensland, and provide a forum to share knowledge and experience from recent events to help us prepare for, respond quickly to and recover from a disaster."

This event brings together a range of key stakeholders including the Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Tropical Cyclone Consultative Committee, Queensland Government and various emergency services organisations to build resilient communities through planning, preparation and education.

Further enquires to:

Vikash Prasad (07) 3239 8624
Qld Severe Weather Section

The Seasonal outlook is due today isn't it? Curious to see the Likely Number of TCs.

It will be posted here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/tc.shtml

Here is last years: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/tc.2010-11.shtml

Its out now, looks like we have 65% of above average Cyclones in our area.
Average is 3-4 so obviously they are thinking more than that.

Interestingly they do not give an estimate of the number, just the chance of more - last year they did.

Last year the chance of above average was the Eastern Region was 87% compared to 65% this outlook.

Livio said yesterday expect 5-6 cyclones with 1 or *possibly* 2 crossing the coast

It's not even a low Mathew, I wouldn't worry about it at all.

Thanks for that update any way but their is a lots of thunderstorms around that area I am keeping a watch on at the moment.

All that activity has disappeared now Matt, just have to keep watching and hoping for a while longer.

You might have to upgrade ur clock Matty

The first outlook for the 2011/2012 season.
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Tuesday the 1st of November 2011 and valid until end of
Friday

Existing Cyclones:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Very low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

Access model plotting a weak low forming over the solomon group next weekend. gfs forms it a bit later and moves a weak system southward.
first sign of the impending season ahead!

It's looks like there is a little weak low hear Willis Island might need a bit of watching....

Just need some one to update me if there a weak low forming hear there or not off the Queensland coast hear Willis Island I think.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

I don't think we got to worry about that one at the moment that one any way hear Willis Island all I can see is developing Severe thunderstorms in that area but as Mick10 said the another day the one hear the solomon well could be the one to watch over the coming weeks.

I am tipping now around December or after the new year we might some Tropical cyclone development in the coral sea. Just a %50 to %50 chance if it's happen or not.

That what I think it's may happen for the rest of December and after the new year.

Back to November and October I think we only see a little bit of action but who know that just may change later on that what I think any way now.

Dear All, EVERY single website I've been on daily over the past month, BoM, Vanuatu BoM, Fiji BoM, Tonga BoM, Samoa BoM (highly recommended),JTWC and TSR - there is NOTHING out there, nothing that looks REMOTELY like a developing low. Everything out there is high, high, high ....

Don't worry, although we are forecast to have a 'weak' La Nina this year, has anyone looked at the figures for its intensity over the last fortnight? Looking EXTREMELY interesting in its rapidly developing intensity.

Look out for a wet Christmas in North Queensland and a very wet January/February ...

yeah fiji met said the same thing. Then about 2 weeks go they nearly had a cyclone on their hands! They just dont want to disrupt the tourism I reckon.

I know this might be just wives tales stuff but was talking to a mate of mine who does a fair bit of reef fishing and he said that the fish have gone of the bite. He spoke to a few people that are saying the same thing. So he seems to think that we will get a cyclone in the next 4 weeks because the same sought of thing has happened the last 2 years with anthony and ului. Just wanted to know what you guys thought about this.

I have fished my whole life and reckon this is a load of crap. Fish go off the biite for a lot of reasons and I can pretty much guarantee that at some time within 4 weeks of a cyclones arrival, that fish will go ooff the bite. It is simply a matter of odds. looking at it from the other direction I have had fantastic fishing within a couple of days either side oof a cyclone. Besides it would not be a great idea for the fish to stop eating for four weeks because a cyclone is coming. They might starve.

It's looks like a little low hear Fiji close to a little cat 1 Tropical Cyclone that what I think any way.

I like to know what do you all think about it and I will just left that as that??