#1079111 - 21/02/2012 16:01
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Looks like theres a cool change on Sunday without any rain (according to ACCESS) this has no impact on rainfall on Monday but could impact on storm development?
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#1079270 - 21/02/2012 18:46
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Meso7]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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What seems to have happened to me is the formation of a large ECL off NSW central coast right now/tonight. This is progged to move rapidly off to NZ taking the potential moisture that Vic "could have got" this weekend along with it. Those damned ECL's are buggers of things to predict.  That leaves Vic with the same northerly/NE air flow this weekend, but with dry air instead. So lets enjoy a sunny "last?" hot sunny weekend before grizzling about trying to get the long grass dry enough to mow the weekend after!  Interestingly, GFS still is the "wetest" model for the days after the weekend coming. The formation of todays ECL off NSW, although not a Vic event confirms the volitility of this late summer/autumn pattern in SE Aus with LaNinas last gasp, and an abundance of moisture infeeds to Vic continuing.
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#1079275 - 21/02/2012 18:54
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Petros the sypnotic harts (and Nine news  ) are saying that in an inland trough currently over around Queensland, NSW etc is the thing feeding the moisture, the low of the coast of NSW shouldn't affect it too much I think, but yeah I think this is probably going to be one of the last high 20s low to mid 30 runs for a few days going into Autumn.
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#1079624 - 22/02/2012 15:37
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Could someone please start a thread for upcoming system, lots to disguss and you know Fergus might even have something to say later in the week.
If I head it up, it would go something like this "Bloody warm sweaty weekend coming up, Storms and showers followed by a front on Monday that will then bring rain and I anticipate it to become bloody wet". So best me not do it.
Edited by thunderunder (22/02/2012 15:39)
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#1079634 - 22/02/2012 16:03
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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I was suprised by ACCESS latests run, nothing really for central Saturday, Sunday (storms around the ranges usual etc) and the front looked quite weak, but as it goes through Victoria on Monday it unleashes a widespread 30-40mm. Also if no one else does i'll start the next thread with the nightly model runs if thats ok with you guys.
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#1079704 - 22/02/2012 19:21
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Holy moly ACCESS... look at those rainfall totals, im not sure if people want THAT to come off.
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#1079725 - 22/02/2012 20:41
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Models are starting to look really interesting tonight. Tuesday looking HOT to TROT.
No thread yet.....
You all dont really want me to head one up do you? Unless your in for a cackle.
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#1080198 - 24/02/2012 02:24
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 2/11/2009
Loc: Hattonvale
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gfs this evening has forecasting a monster upper low or something coming up from the south with very strong winds over victoria for the end of feb or early march. if that comes off there will be problems especially with some saturation in the ground after this week
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#1080512 - 24/02/2012 19:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Yeah Petros noticed that, possible ECL? only GFS are really onto anything in Victoria.
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#1082546 - 28/02/2012 22:00
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Doubt it Petros, none of the runs are putting it nearly that far south, sorry im not the expert you're looking for but neither GFS, Access are saying anything big for Victoria apart from the far north over the next week, only interesting event is another rain event which could put another 15-30mm in parts of the state.
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#1082558 - 28/02/2012 22:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Todays runs had cooled off re rain coming into Vic but this evenings run is a bit more south. Latest GFS run Petros for 72 hours (there is more higher rainfall up to 180 hrs). My computor keeps getting hot, and I had saved this in my pictures.  Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Edited by thunderunder (28/02/2012 22:27)
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#1082562 - 28/02/2012 22:25
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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I think you maybe onto something Petros , but i beleive the WA Trough might have something to say in this regard . Its going to be a armwrestle of sorts for this Troughs attaction , unfortunatley for our Sydney -Nowra ( flood doomsayers ) it looks like the Cetral NSW Surface Low that was going to drag off alot of this Moisture into the Lower Tasman has got some competition from the West , and Depending on ridgeing Direct South Central Vic could win ( though many will say lose - with potential metro Flooding ) and then Tassie and maybe even Gippsland . But it seems immeasurable so Even I won't back any scenario going forward , All i can see is that someone is going to get extremely wet or everyone will get reasonably wet . But a Guarantee that eventually large Portions of SE SA will get well waterlogged .........
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1082568 - 28/02/2012 22:36
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Aaaah, wish I had read SO's before I posted my silly picture, wasn't sure what Petro's was referring to.
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#1085495 - 5/03/2012 10:26
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Things]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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There is a couple things of interest currently from ACCESSG and GFS, both are going for ECLs which should atleast effect far eastern Victoria, GFS has a couple of cyclones in the West, don't know whether or not the remanants will effect Victoria yet.
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