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#1026816 - 04/11/2011 20:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.... as the models wax and wane...

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#1029257 - 10/11/2011 17:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Chance of storms with a change Sunday, but further out GFS is mooting this:

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#1029605 - 11/11/2011 20:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
More on next Thursday.... its nothing (AccG)



or something (GFS).....



Now hows THAT for a bit of model variation out in fairyland!!!

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#1030492 - 14/11/2011 13:18 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Lindsay Knowles Offline
Moderator

Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3931
Loc: Pakenham Victoria's Storm Capi...
Starting to get interssted in Friday arvo through to Sunday. Maybe some arvo storms Friday and also Saturday with some high falls on the cards about the state.

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#1030558 - 14/11/2011 17:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2845
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
GFS looks very nice with some NW infeed, which nearly always results in storms and good rainfalls.

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#1030656 - 15/11/2011 00:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Gabby]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 433
Loc: Stewarton
GFS has been swinging the last few days with high precip Albury area over the weekend.
I am going to Coldchisel outdoor concert in Wodonga Fri 18th. Do you think chisel could sing me up a storm and then Barnsey be drowned out by thunder?

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#1031318 - 16/11/2011 19:42 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EC has progged 23mm for N Gippsland next Wednesday, WZ hasnt posted updates for EC of AccG models yet so I cant comment on model consensus.

Theres already rain comming for Vic this weekend, plenty already had (yest/last night), and now the notion of more mid next week?? - La Nina - gotta love it smile

Commiserations to Globlal Warmist/Alarmists who said Vics dams would never fill again wink

[edit] WZ has just updated GFS run, it wants nothing to do with mid week rain (thank God for the VIc farming harvesters).


Edited by Petros (16/11/2011 19:45)

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#1032574 - 20/11/2011 10:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Whats going to happen after the next high clears to Vic E at the end of next week? There is going to be plenty moisture available to Vic N again! If something can allow it to be drawn down we (here) will be swimming! 90+mm here this month so far.

So this prog from GFS for next Friday night looks a bit omninous!


Maybe time to start a thread eh (I always stuff up the dates!).

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#1032641 - 20/11/2011 13:39 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 433
Loc: Stewarton
I read elsewhere that maybe in a fortnights time roughly that we could be in for a very large scale rain event if things line up right. Of course it is a long time away and I am sure there will be some rain and storms in between.
I DO ENJOY the build up to these systems and find it absolutely fascinating reading others opinions of how the system may pan out, it is much more interesting then listening to the weather on the tv or the radio. It's like a child looking at their presents under the christmas tree, the anticipation and the waite is what makes the unwrapping so much better.

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#1032717 - 20/11/2011 18:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: thunderunder]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Heard that too TU, AV from AWF is mooting this as well and he is the guy that predicted the massive rain Vic got earlier this year.

On a closer timeframe, CMC is also playing with the possibility of wetness in S NSW albiet into next Sat - a day later than GFC's musings posted above. Well time to start a thread on this possibility IMO.



Edited by Petros (20/11/2011 18:25)

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#1032889 - 21/11/2011 11:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 433
Loc: Stewarton
Will this cross the border or not Fri-Sat? Some models toying with the idea.

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#1032996 - 21/11/2011 20:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
liberator Offline
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Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 280
Loc: Kyabram
Petros, where do you find those prediciton maps - I've only found the 14 day ones and they never seem to match?

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#1033154 - 22/11/2011 12:19 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: liberator]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 433
Loc: Stewarton
I get my models from weatherzone and pay for the Pro Silver Acces which I think $5.00 per month.
You can still see some models with out joining If you go click on radar & maps then click on australian charts (above weatherzone 14 day outlook) then click on BOM it will give you the access model runs or click on GFS will give you GFS model runs, then you can click on each day for a bigger view. If you are signed up with Pro you get many extras like being able to get a close up of a particular state it will also also give you access to the CMC, TWC models etc and there are quiet a few other things that you can access too by joining up with the Pro that are especially handy for storm followers.
Hope this helps Liberator.

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#1033159 - 22/11/2011 12:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: thunderunder]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep I do exactly as TU said liberator.

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#1033312 - 22/11/2011 20:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 280
Loc: Kyabram
Thanks guys

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#1033314 - 22/11/2011 20:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: liberator
Petros, where do you find those prediciton maps - I've only found the 14 day ones and they never seem to match?


Promted by a hint from Ruckle in the present thread for this weekend I went shopping out a little further.....

AccG (which WZ posts later and later it seems) is showing the potential for a followup event to this weekend later next week. IF CMC is correct AND this AccG prog were to come true, then we Gippslanders are at risk of becomming dissolved shocked



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#1033726 - 23/11/2011 18:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EC shows my area to get another 16mm mid next week. On top of what could possibly be serious rain for us in central Vic (we are wet here, and lake glenmaggie is full).

We really dont need this potential followup system, and this is AccG not EC! shocked



[edit] - and look at the tongue of cold air arriving from the SW - defintely adding fuel to the fire shocked


Edited by Petros (23/11/2011 18:49)

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#1034332 - 24/11/2011 19:25 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EC has just doubled the expected rain for Maffra next Wed from 16 to 33mm.

Would someone PLEASE start a thread on this potential event?

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#1035337 - 27/11/2011 20:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
So after the cool spell as this week concludes and a pretty stable weekend compared to recent times, inland moisture looks to be building again in the new week. Some hints of another big system from the SW coming up to draw it all down for another thundery and or rainy episode as we get toward the end of the 1st week of December. If this pattern keeps up once the wet begins up north, eastern Australia will be swimming.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1036718 - 30/11/2011 20:06 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
An comment on the possibility of a very warm/wet/humid northerly system Thu/Sat next week that looks to provide big storms for Vic (acc. to last run of AccG)?

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