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#1036796 - 30/11/2011 22:43 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 433
Loc: Stewarton
Have been watching the models, looking more interresting this evening. An article on WZ of warning winegrowers in SA that there is more rain to come late next week, but will that system head into NSW or will it flow into Vic? And of course there is talk of more rain when the monsoonal season starts. Lanina seem be firing, esp for NSW.
Anyway enough of my blaa blaa blaa.

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#1037087 - 01/12/2011 11:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: thunderunder]
Katyer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/01/2011
Posts: 457
Loc: Taylors Hill
Thunderunder...keepp the blaa blaa going, I find yours and others input so informative. I have been reading, but not contributing to the ENSO discussion. Really interesting reading all the comments and others points of view on this current La Nina.
Originally Posted By: thunderunder
Have been watching the models, looking more interresting this evening. An article on WZ of warning winegrowers in SA that there is more rain to come late next week, but will that system head into NSW or will it flow into Vic? And of course there is talk of more rain when the monsoonal season starts. Lanina seem be firing, esp for NSW.
Anyway enough of my blaa blaa blaa.

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#1037326 - 01/12/2011 16:18 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Katyer]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1441
Huh that's funny, BOM 10 day charts showing it developing a lot in SA on friday, before dissapitating in Victoria and then redeveloping a little.

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#1037805 - 02/12/2011 23:10 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Keep looking out for the end of next week I reckon.

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#1038710 - 05/12/2011 17:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
OK now that the weekends system (8-11/12/11) is a monty. I note that a certain respected Vic amateur met-buff with the initials KL is mooting that this system could merely be the set up to allow the following system early next week to create a serious rainfall situation in Victoria.

To the models all... to the models!! Those of use below lakes Glenmaggie, Hume, Eildon etc. should watch the model runs over the next couple of days VERY CLOSELY.

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#1039166 - 06/12/2011 20:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.... and I'm sure this is the system referred too....

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#1039238 - 06/12/2011 23:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 433
Loc: Stewarton
Should I be getting the boat fueled up, the floaties blown up and the pantry filled up! grin


Edited by thunderunder (06/12/2011 23:17)

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#1040507 - 10/12/2011 10:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: thunderunder]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hmmm - well I'm very interested in later next week anyhow.

Thats a serious ball of moisture to potentially get cradled between 2 weak highs as it arrives into SE Aust.....

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#1041394 - 11/12/2011 10:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like a wet system is set to arrive into Vic at the end of the week and into the weekend.

Hihg time for an intrepid weather watcher to start a thread on this methinks....


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#1041897 - 11/12/2011 18:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
... and might end up with this...(remember its day 8 of GFS 8 day model)....


Someone please start a thread for the end of next week!!

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#1042001 - 11/12/2011 20:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1441
You can start it lol, althought that does look really nasty. I actually hope that's not what happens because that could be some serious flooding.

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#1042036 - 11/12/2011 21:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
There is a LOT of interest on this comming weekend on other forums. I'm very concious of avoiding the WZ Vic forum thread intiation from being a "Petros" dominated.

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#1042120 - 11/12/2011 22:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
SCI18 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 3
Loc: Bendigo
Originally Posted By: Petros
There is a LOT of interest on this comming weekend on other forums. I'm very concious of avoiding the WZ Vic forum thread intiation from being a "Petros" dominated.


Latest models are loving this event. Especially US 8day on WZ with 80mm in central and northern Vic. Looking forward to it.


Edited by Matthew Pearce (11/12/2011 22:14)
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#1044927 - 17/12/2011 19:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: SCI18]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1184
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
80mm....there wont be any victoria left! haha I'm just having a gander at the new forum pages i'll have to look at. QLDer here but am coming down for Uni and I can't wait.

When does "most" of the weather occur? (Mainly storms)

anyway...hope you get swept away in 80mm of rain (and if you want to send it north you are more than welcome poke ) and enjoy your warm hopefully sunny christmas....I think ours will be rained out
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#1044930 - 17/12/2011 19:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Dawoodman]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1441
Funny how much the models changed woodman poke Anyway most of our storms occur like the rest of Australia in Spring and Summer, spring probably has the most severe but Summer has the most imo.

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#1045635 - 19/12/2011 11:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 433
Loc: Stewarton
Boxing day could be interesting.

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#1046192 - 20/12/2011 20:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: thunderunder]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looking at the current AccG and GFS runs, between them, I can construe an ECL event to crawl down the Aus SE coast as a possible outcome to throw into the ring with the rest mid next week (27-29/12/11). If this was to happen it would potentially only affect Vic S of the ranges from Packy E so its a bit of a self centred post I guess. It would require the potential coral coast cyclone "Fina" NOT to form IMO though!

But it could/would interest Melbournites re the potential Thompson Dam input? - (how did I go? wink ).


Edited by Petros (20/12/2011 20:03)

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#1048660 - 26/12/2011 18:31 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Well, after the Christmas mayhem in the new storm mecca - Melbourne, it looks like we'll have to put up with cool boring holiday wrecking S to SE regime along Vics S coast through to Fri 30th before the next high establishes itself over SE Vic.

AccG and GFS show the high sticking around till the following Monday night before the next "weather" will arrive. At this stage, my guess is that it'll be a far less sexy SW'ly change. Hopefully with some storms with it.

We got 26mm rain over past 2 days so wont complain! - our second summer shaping up to dodge those long hot periods.

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#1049613 - 28/12/2011 08:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Only thing atm, well btw now and next Tuesday is heat building. Been interesting with the models that they keep extending the heat / delaying the change.

Remains to be seen if there is any instability with the trough sticking into VIC. Hard to imagine there wouldnt be at least some rumbling around the ranges at least.
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#1049706 - 28/12/2011 12:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Ruckle]
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Precipitable water values are forecast to be quite high with the heat for the New Year period. GFS has DPs staying in double figures for a lot of the time. I know GFS often overdoes the humidity but it's still going to be a lot higher than what we normally see in heatwaves here in summer. La Nina seems to be peaking at the moment and there is a heap of moisture available from the NW tropics. It's not the typical dusty desert summer that we often see in VIC.

With the higher humidity, models are predicting much lower temps than you would expect to see around midsummer given the 850T forecast. 24C 850T at times at the peak of the heatwave and yet not one day forecast above 36C in Melbourne. This is clearly due to the higher moisture levels that are expected, both directly due to higher atmospheric water allowing for less heating than dry air and indirectly as a result of convective buildups and likely middle level cloud that should develop with a weak trough over us for most of the period. Isolated showers should develop over the ranges but mainly in the NE of the state and coastal.

The north of the state will be very hot with temps exceeding 40C as they receive the hottest and driest air. Very hot but nothing particularly out of the ordinary for the far north and NW in January.

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