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#1284698 - 18/11/2014 21:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
I've noticed it. We get a run of mild to warm days then a hot northerly then very cool for a few days. Is it abnormal? I don't know, but I do feel I'm wearing a jumper for longer in the mornings.

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#1284746 - 19/11/2014 10:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Same here! Lots of mornings this month that have fallen below 15C, including quite a few in the single-digits; last night was no exception, getting down to 7.7C! eek crazy

Still, it's good sleeping weather, and our daytime highs are generally pleasingly mild to warm (with a few chilly and hot days tossed in). And at least we're not getting those incessant westerlies like we had last spring, even though this spring has been less blustery than usual. smile

Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow and to the coming weekend. I hope it's the start of a positive change for the Storm Season! smile

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#1284767 - 19/11/2014 13:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1271
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
The weather I guess is a bit more choppy and changey, I know I have used the electric blanket a bit this month. There is that one day that is really hot and then the change comes through and its frigid. its good in the way that there hasn't really been a long string of hot days but the wind changes could be bad. I guess this is just apart of our build-up to summer though grin
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1285278 - 21/11/2014 17:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Chance of storms out Gippsland way on Monday?


.... from the BOM Gippsland....
Monday 24 November

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon

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#1285338 - 21/11/2014 22:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
Monday looks absolutely fantastic. Lets hope the models hold up.
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#1286559 - 28/11/2014 16:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Humidity is to come.

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#1286575 - 28/11/2014 18:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
And some interesting scenarios Ant. Bairnsdale forecast for Monday: "A humid and cloudy day. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls exceeding 70 mm possible. Light winds." ... and then ... Thurs/Frid seem to hold some interesting possibilities across eastern Vic though the models and WATL are in vast disagreement re how much and where.

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#1286593 - 28/11/2014 19:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: ThunderBob]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
ACCESS G has now got a lot more "realistic" about Thurs/Frid next week. confused

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#1286596 - 28/11/2014 19:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Better than hot, dry weather with bushfires! If only we had summers with generous rainfall and storms... frown

Hope it holds out and comes off as predicted! smile

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#1289293 - 07/12/2014 18:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just did a quick scan over the pending outlook. To me, it looks like that most folk in Vic that are having family "home" for Christmas, have a good chance of presenting the "ole house/garden" in near spring-like condition, given recent and prognosed rain over the next 6 - 12 days.

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#1295778 - 04/01/2015 08:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Potentially interesting period in a week or so according to the models. I'll rely on other more knowledgeable folks to properly describe what is being progged by the models but (lumping them all together) there seems a scenario something like ...

A low forms on the Kimberley coast, intensifies into a cyclone crossing the Pilbara coast and then heading inland E/SE then traveling inland. A long deep trough develops from this and (perhaps acc to earlier runs) either links with a Bight low or forms a low at it most SE extent south of SE Sth Aust or western Vic and then intensifies.

Suggestions of heavy falls of rain over central and eastern Victoria around 10-12 January.

Thoughts?

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#1295803 - 04/01/2015 09:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes ThunderBob! ACCESS has something for that period, whether it happens or no is unclear... but if it does happen, it could mean a very, VERY soggy start to my time in Merimbula, NSW! Maybe an ECL? smile

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#1295808 - 04/01/2015 10:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: aussiestormfreak]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, ASF ... without going back to the models ...one scenario is an ECL.

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#1295830 - 04/01/2015 11:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Ahh! Hadn't realized a thread had been set up already for this period ... so over to "arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15"

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#1295839 - 04/01/2015 11:25 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yep that's the one ThunderBob! Sorry I failed to mention it to you mate! Seems to be a bit confusing atm with several systems occurring in fairly rapid succession, but they also seem to be linked to each other in a way!

For instance, the trough that passed over last night is set to stall over Gippsland and Northeast Victoria before retreating back west and providing sultry, unsettled conditions with showers and thunderstorms across much of the State, before a cold front brushes by late this coming week. Then of course we have the potential low/NW cloudband coming down behind that!! crazy

But as confusing as this is IMO, this is way better than a blocking high with heatwave and bushfire conditions! If it delivers the summer rain we need so badly then bring it on!! wink

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#1299293 - 13/01/2015 22:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
What ACCESS are going with in their 00z run reminds me of the summer a couple of years ago where in January there was some scorching temperatures inland but constant weak changes kept it in the mid 20s for Melbourne

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#1299364 - 14/01/2015 09:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Lucy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/03/2013
Posts: 82
Loc: Lilydale Victoria Creswick Vic...
Yes I recall that summer too, very similar indeed

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#1299677 - 15/01/2015 16:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
I reckon there ain't much happenin' in Victoria's weather over the next week.Should be good for golf though Petros (and Samboz?).

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#1299706 - 15/01/2015 17:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Glad to see that the worst heat should stay well clear of Melbourne for at least another seven days or so, with highs struggling to get above about 32C or so. No doubt the cooler temperatures and any rain that occurs during that period will be most welcome in bushfire-prone areas in and near the metropolitan area, especially in the Dandenong Ranges! I'm sure people like Darkhazord and Lucy will agree! wink

Not happy about returning to Corryong, Northeast Victoria next week. Yes I love the town, but always hard saying goodbye to Merimbula and having to wait twelve long months before I can come back to the NSW South Coast! But even worse, that inland heatwave you guys mentioned will strike the Upper Murray next week, with highs breaking 35C from Wednesday onwards! There had better be some high humidity with showers and thunderstorms with it, or I won't be happy!! frown mad

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#1299933 - 16/01/2015 17:31 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1444
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
GFS hinting at some hot to very hot temps late jan early feb - right when school starts GREAT!!
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