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#1395889 - 04/12/2016 21:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Summer is coming







Based on this runs Tuesday will be a scorcher likely hotter than than this run shows with with wind change already entering the state by 17:00.
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#1395894 - 04/12/2016 23:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Mmmmm not looking good, so the next dangerous heatwave for the season could strike early next week! If that chart is anything to go by, then Melbourne could easily soar beyond 35C on Tuesday December 13th. frown

ACCESS, and to a lesser extent GFS, have a potentially major winter storm system or at the very least a deep low bearing down on us around that time. The tightening pressure gradient ahead of it is cause for concern in terms of bushfires, could mean a hot, but also likely gale-force northerly airflow. frown

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#1396496 - 08/12/2016 17:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A head's up for next week!

Still a long way out, but ACCESS, GFS and the synoptic prognosis are all more-or-less in agreement with each other for the middle part of next week.

They have a low and trough brewing over the sun-scorched WA Pilbara, then sliding down the West Coast into Southwest WA during the weekend.

Factor into the equation what could still become the next potentially major winter storm that Antarctica is getting ready to unleash upon Southeastern Australia! An enormous, deepening low pressure area rides the Roaring Forties, creating a mighty cold front that charges north across the Southern Ocean around the same time.

The low and trough from the WA Pilbara enter the Bight on Monday, with the cold front rapidly closing in behind them. A preceding area of high pressure retreats off the East Coast into the South Pacific. By Monday, a hot northerly airflow floods Eastern Australia as the storm bears down on Victoria.

ACCESS and GFS are in a bit of disagreement over the severity of the building heatwave across Victoria. For the moment it looks like most of the coastal areas will enjoy the benefit of seabreezes, while the Northern Plains, Mallee, Wimmera, etc are likely to roast! Currently the BOM has 33C for Melbourne and 37C for Mildura on Tuesday, but wouldn't rule out Melbourne hitting 35C instead, and perhaps at least one spot further inland soaring to 40C! Likely to be a potentially dangerous bushfire risk too, with winds likely to reach gale-force. eek

The worst of the cold blast looks likely to stay well to our south for the time being, but still going to be a significant change nonetheless! Storms likely to erupt on Tuesday according to BSCH! smile

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#1396621 - 09/12/2016 09:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Could Next Wednesday be this wet??

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#1396626 - 09/12/2016 10:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3676
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
While it has rain, ECMWF is a good deal less enthusiastic.

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#1396669 - 09/12/2016 18:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...bloody hope so! - (party pooper Blair!) wink

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#1396670 - 09/12/2016 19:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I would love it if that sort of rain can develop over Melbourne next week! And need some storms too. smile

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#1396690 - 09/12/2016 21:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6083
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC has it more Tuesday evening on tonight's run. Another 23mm here it says. Be great on top of the 36mm we just had.
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#1396691 - 09/12/2016 21:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The is a lot of uncertainty right now, across the major models on timing of the change, some have it impacting the South West late Tuesday morning while GFS doesn't have it hitting until close to midnight. GFS also has the storms keeping to the North and east of the state into NSW



Still waiting on tonight's ACCESS run.


Edited by logansi (09/12/2016 21:25)
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#1397300 - 15/12/2016 10:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The 2 major long range models (GFS and EC) have potential heatwave heat pushing into the North of the state by the 21st (now being picked up by ACCESS as well) and running over Christmas right up until the 29th/30th - effecting the south from the 23rd onwards.

Also CFS model runs are starting to indicate an above average January and February, quite a change from average to the below average it was picking up in late November.







Edited by logansi (15/12/2016 10:47)
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#1399128 - 28/12/2016 17:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Long ways off I know, but at the end of the latest ACCESS run there's hints that a GOC (Gulf of Carpentaria) low/tropical cyclone will develop within the monsoonal system over Tropical Northern Australia in coming days, and then eventually head inland, possibly swinging southwards towards Victoria! Maybe our first rain event/storm outbreak for 2017? smile

Still a long way off, but just wanted to give everyone a head's up! wink

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#1399196 - 28/12/2016 22:31 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah I noticed that on this morning access to asf😃

Seems to be gone now on tonight's run lol
Crucial times ahead after the current system moves through,if we can get another decent system early mid Jan then that goes along way to snuffing this fire season!!

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#1399476 - 30/12/2016 13:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I know, but I wouldn't write it off completely Doogasnow. smile

Scenario's changed somewhat. The latest run has the GOC low developing as predicted, but then heading west across the Top End and Kimberley into the Indian Ocean and possibly morphing into a tropical cyclone. It then makes landfall at roughly this time next week over the WA Pilbara, then combines with the monsoon and a series of troughs over the Outback and Eastern Australia (plus a possible cut-off low, spawned from a cold front over the Southern Ocean) to usher in a potentially humid, unsettled, stormy period across Victoria starting next Wednesday! smile

If this scenario (or something similar) does come off, it'll be very welcome. At least for those of us who love our storms, and want heavy rain to fight off bushfires. smile

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#1399533 - 30/12/2016 19:19 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After all the storm action Vic has had over the past few days, I reckon that the next storms might be more focussed on Vic's E in response to an Easterly Dip scenario:




BUT - if the GOC ends up with a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days - then its "all cards off the table" as we saw with model predictions fluctuating wildly for Vic over the past 10 days!

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#1400100 - 02/01/2017 18:21 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hmmm - seems a "move on - nothing much to see here" period looming for Vic over the next week????




Maybe a coastal drizzle period or two to provide a mm or 2 over this period?

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#1400148 - 02/01/2017 20:10 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
GFS still has a storm risk on Thursday for on and south of the ranges right across the state - look like mostly dry storms at this stage so not good for fire risk.

BTW I did start a thread for this period

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea..._Di#Post1399754
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#1401752 - 12/01/2017 18:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...been slim pickings for "long term whats-out-there shoppers" (like me) for many weeks now (excluding heat events).

Maybe this time next week there is a chance that we can finally have Vic benefit from that seemingly endless flow of moisture from the NW that SA seem to be "overly-greedy" with of late??

Call it an Easterly Dip, or cut-off Low, I dont care - just want to defer the fire season as long as we can wink :


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#1401762 - 12/01/2017 19:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I'll drink to those charts 'p' lol
I'm also hanging my hat on any little scrap
Of moisture that even looks sideways at
Coming our way 😨

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#1401959 - 13/01/2017 18:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A look at the Aus SatIR for the past 24hrs to now shows the Coral Sea out E of Nth Qld to be brewing up a storm soup.

....havent looked at models yet, but if I was up there, I'd be watching any prolonged large-area cloud blob out to sea like a hawk!

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#1402084 - 14/01/2017 12:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
It'll be interesting to see how things pan out next Thursday weatherwise, when I have to (sadly) leave Merimbula and drive back home to Melbourne with my fiancee to attend a friend's wedding. Good thing the week after, from about Monday January 23rd at the earliest, it's straight back to NSW/ACT for us, can hardly wait to be off to Canberra and Sydney, possibly via Corryong! grin

Anyway, not much to show on the models atm but the latest synoptic prognosis hints at whatll hopefully be decent trough swinging down from the north next Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Hopefully Victoria will get a good summer soaking, SA has been greedy. But could be a wet, stormy roadtrip through Gippsland if it does indeed come off. Hmmm...

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