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#1402143 - 14/01/2017 18:42 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After building to hot weather (focused on Vic's NW) next Tuesday - the set up for the end of the week for Vic still shows a tendency to allow humid weather to arrive from the NE (ex QLD inland tropical low).

Current models show little rain for Vic - but for my 2 bob's - it'll either be nothing, or a wet 10 - 25mm lucky surprise for significant regions in Vic?

Current GFS:


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#1402279 - 15/01/2017 12:18 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Coming from a South Aussie perspective this week is going to be your garden variety benign weather conditions for both of our states as the majority of significant weather happening in QLD,NSW and WA/NT

One would hope this is just a build up to something significant in the coming weeks as the lack of summer so far is really disappointing

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#1402387 - 15/01/2017 18:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Conditions for SE Aus for the 7 days or so appear to me to be normal for this time of year (i.e. no perturbations from cyclones etc.) - so the models should be reasonably accurate out to 4-6 days I would have thought.

GFS is currently providing some hand rain for Vic later in the pending week, here's hoping its on the mark!!??:


Time for an intrepid thread-starter meethinks......

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#1402577 - 16/01/2017 18:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Unashamedly "Maffra-centric" - but this EC rainfall forecast for us Thursday night/Friday would be gratefully received:


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#1402580 - 16/01/2017 19:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
That looks fantastic for u guys out there 'p',
Hope it comes off😀😀

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#1402698 - 17/01/2017 18:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Re Friday rain for N Gippsland, EC has put the brakes on slightly:



....but we would take 10mm and run!!

No takers for a thread starter - so I'll set one up in case theres some thunder with the late week change......

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#1402810 - 18/01/2017 10:42 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
ADFD is going for 5-10mm for the Melbourne Area on Friday
WATL combined model forecasts perhaps a bit more for the Eastern Suburbs
And ACCESS-R is around that range too.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1403132 - 19/01/2017 21:06 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

GFS on Tuesday Morning.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1409259 - 23/02/2017 18:26 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Look at this "purple-laced" cold air surge that GFS moots is possible in a weeks time!:



Could this produce the first cut-off low for Vic's 2017 autumn?

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#1409301 - 24/02/2017 07:10 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 128
One could hope, some nice heavy rain would be refreshing changr.

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#1409681 - 26/02/2017 21:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
EC talking heaps of rain late this week and into next week, GFS looking OK and ACCESS with some promise so far, although still well out from the possible event.

Thinking of a thread, but don't want to give this much needed event the kiss of death yet given the frequency they peter out.

Have no idea if this could turn into a cut off low Petros, maybe some of the senior (older) members could give some advice.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1409756 - 27/02/2017 11:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
WATL 8 DAY is also looking very good, I'll believe it when it's in the gauge though - happens so many times that these forecasts change nearer the date -

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Our local forecast for Sunday, 80% chance of 5 to 20mm & other chances of rain in the previous three days.

My amateur take is that the event is fed by low troughs from the north and it "may" all stay to far to our N/E to impact much of Vic.

Could put up with any rain at this stage, very dry now let alone after the next few days.

Saving grace is no wind atm.


Edited by samboz (27/02/2017 11:03)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1409765 - 27/02/2017 11:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Getting a little excited........... grin

When you see models like this........ grin grin

_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1409770 - 27/02/2017 12:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
ACCESS G and GFS are in broad agreement, Samboz: both prepared to sustain your excitement. The EC 15-day ensemble, though, does exactly what you fear in terms of the trough spinning up off the NSW south coast and keeping eastern Vic virtually dry. It's well beyond me to assess the models against each other - though, you'd have to say that the weight of modelling is in the ACCESS/GFS favour.

What do others think about the likelihood of an (off-the-coast) ECL compared to the trough bringing significant rains to eastern Vic?

You're correct about the dryness. Many of my non-native trees are pretending its late autumn with their leaves yellowing - but it's the dry not night chills doing this. Cockies around here are talking of the ground splitting from dryness and paddocks are being eaten out. There's some marginal green around but I think that's from the recent light showers giving some surface moisture but there is, I feel, a quite deep dryness.

Will be interesting to view the rainfall deciles for the 3-months when they come out in a couple of days.

Let's keep watchin' them models!

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#1409781 - 27/02/2017 13:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Start that thread Samboz, add up the GFS chart totals and your looking at 70mm over the next weekend if GFS comes to fruition!

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#1409785 - 27/02/2017 14:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Good advice and observation TB, EC went from 80mm'ish y'day to 4mm today, I need to get closer for all the stars to align before I "kiss of death" this one with a thread.....lol

Our Ornamental Pear has also gone into leaf colour change in the last week and visibly drying of to that red they get before dropping, we are only round 32.5mm for the year so its not surprising.

Hoping ACCESS & GFS prove to be accurate for the next week or so, even 1/2" would be handy.

Dunno P, I've done this excitement thing so many times in the last couple of years I might wait until Thursday to fire it up.

Anyone else is most welcome to jump in of course grin
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1409816 - 27/02/2017 18:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Models will wax and wane, nothing wrong with a thread to track the prognosis whatever pans out, the forum is not about being right or wrong, only to discuss and record weather!

Latest GFS has joined the (currently stale) EC model with buggerall rain again for SE Vic:



It looks like an ECL will develop on NSW coast S of Sydney by this Saturday, then walk its way Northward up the NSW coast over the following couple of days.

.....but even this outlook has a potential sting in its tail - plenty of moisture from the NE advected into Vic ahead of an approaching surface trough/easterly dip sagging into Vic from the Mildura direction??? Could go stormy N of the divide and some form of easterly rain into Gippsland mid next week?



Edited by Petros (27/02/2017 18:09)

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#1409843 - 27/02/2017 19:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hope something eventuates out of
This period, gfs not to keen but
Access g ain't looking to bad for
Eastern vic 👍

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#1409845 - 27/02/2017 19:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Like most others it's warm up here and
Starting to lose the green tinge we have
Had the last couple of weeks

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#1409867 - 27/02/2017 20:47 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Eager to know what the weather's gonna do in just under a fortnight, during the 2017 Victorian Labour Day/Canberra Day Long Weekend. My family and I are planning a Melbourne-Canberra road trip. Events in our sights include the Versailles exhibition at the National Gallery of Australia, the Enlightenment displays on the Capital's monuments (similar to Vivid Sydney), and the Canberra Ballooning Festival. smile

Some fine early-autumn weather with cool/mild, calm (maybe foggy) mornings followed by warm/hot, mostly sunny afternoons, and clear evenings is what I'd really want, although a few (preferably afternoon) showers and thunderstorms would be an added bonus. smile

Anyone care to give me some insight on what's likely to unfold around the Capital and in surrounding Southeast NSW and neighbouring Northeast Victoria during the March 9-15 period? smile

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