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#1409873 - 27/02/2017 21:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: ThunderBob]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1372
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob

Will be interesting to view the rainfall deciles for the 3-months when they come out in a couple of days.


Tipping ours will be battling to get over 2 TB.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 47mm to 0900 28th.

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#1409900 - 27/02/2017 23:10 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
ACCESS G the only one holding on for the weekend rain - but patchy except for central and east Gippsland ... and, as Petros says, maybe again mid next week. But GFS and EC have given up on anything substantial. WATL remains positive for eastern third of Vic (is WATL based on ACCESS G?)

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#1409902 - 27/02/2017 23:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4179
WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.

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#1409904 - 27/02/2017 23:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4179
Rainfall amounts in eastern VIC will obviously depend a lot on if/how the potential ECL off southern NSW behaves towards the end of this week and weekend and how far south it manages to come. This will make a big difference between good rains and only a few showers in the S to SE flow.

Here's the percentages of forecast scenarios from three of the ensembles that are dropping more than a total of 25mm of rainfall within the 7 days following this Thursday:



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#1409929 - 28/02/2017 10:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Ken Kato]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.


Thanks Ken. A question which might not be answerable: does doing what WATL does increase accuracy through the averaging and adjustment or give a sort-of-washed-out result where good pointers from a well-performing model (or two) disappear under rouge indications from the other models? Feel free to say,"Your question doesn't make sense, Bob!"

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#1409977 - 28/02/2017 14:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
I listen when I can to the BoM forecaster twice a day on ABC radio (East Sale RAAF & Melb metro). Listening yesterday and this morning, the forecasters seeming to go on an educated hunch about weekend rain prospects and progging less rain than the official forecasts are stating.

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#1410018 - 28/02/2017 18:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Ken, didn't know what WATL was based on.

TB - we are spoiled by the skill of the senior RAAF Base BOM forecasters we have access to out here in Gippsland for sure.

Latest GFS run is still keen on the development of an ECL off NSW late this weekend/early next week:



Its a shame that the unseasonably cold air surge mooted possible a couple of days ago to surge up into Vic from W Tassie looks to be now "kept down" by the establishment of a high pressure system over the bight on Wednesday night.

As we all know, thing can change either way between now and later in the next weekend, if an ECL does form, at least it proves that an early Autumn break very nearly arrived in SE Vic. It will arrive for all of the seaboard of NSW though!!

Being the avid weather reporter I am, I'll head up to Pambula next Saturday to Tuesday to provide reports on what we "nearly got" in SE Vic.

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#1414584 - 23/03/2017 18:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5526
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Now that the latest event has been and gone, time to shift the focus back westwards to whatever's riding the winds. Looks like our first taste of the coming winter is finally heading our way! smile

The models and charts all have a mighty cold front and deepening low pressure system being set free from Antarctica, then charging northbound across the Southern Ocean en route to Southern Australia. Add to the equation a developing low pressure trough from WA.

Winds across Victoria swing around into a warm to hot northerly airflow during the weekend, gaining momentum and strengthening possibly to gale-force as the storm approaches, with the change striking late on Monday. Should see tops of 32C for Melbourne and 37C for Mildura.

Not a great deal of activity with the preceding trough, although we may see the odd shower or storm, but risk of heavier showers and potentially severe thunderstorms developing with the main cold front itself on Monday! smile

Worth keeping an eye on...

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