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#1409873 - 27/02/2017 21:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: ThunderBob]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob

Will be interesting to view the rainfall deciles for the 3-months when they come out in a couple of days.


Tipping ours will be battling to get over 2 TB.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1409900 - 27/02/2017 23:10 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 555
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
ACCESS G the only one holding on for the weekend rain - but patchy except for central and east Gippsland ... and, as Petros says, maybe again mid next week. But GFS and EC have given up on anything substantial. WATL remains positive for eastern third of Vic (is WATL based on ACCESS G?)

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#1409902 - 27/02/2017 23:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4426
WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.

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#1409904 - 27/02/2017 23:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4426
Rainfall amounts in eastern VIC will obviously depend a lot on if/how the potential ECL off southern NSW behaves towards the end of this week and weekend and how far south it manages to come. This will make a big difference between good rains and only a few showers in the S to SE flow.

Here's the percentages of forecast scenarios from three of the ensembles that are dropping more than a total of 25mm of rainfall within the 7 days following this Thursday:



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#1409929 - 28/02/2017 10:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Ken Kato]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 555
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.


Thanks Ken. A question which might not be answerable: does doing what WATL does increase accuracy through the averaging and adjustment or give a sort-of-washed-out result where good pointers from a well-performing model (or two) disappear under rouge indications from the other models? Feel free to say,"Your question doesn't make sense, Bob!"

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#1409977 - 28/02/2017 14:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 555
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
I listen when I can to the BoM forecaster twice a day on ABC radio (East Sale RAAF & Melb metro). Listening yesterday and this morning, the forecasters seeming to go on an educated hunch about weekend rain prospects and progging less rain than the official forecasts are stating.

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#1410018 - 28/02/2017 18:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Ken, didn't know what WATL was based on.

TB - we are spoiled by the skill of the senior RAAF Base BOM forecasters we have access to out here in Gippsland for sure.

Latest GFS run is still keen on the development of an ECL off NSW late this weekend/early next week:



Its a shame that the unseasonably cold air surge mooted possible a couple of days ago to surge up into Vic from W Tassie looks to be now "kept down" by the establishment of a high pressure system over the bight on Wednesday night.

As we all know, thing can change either way between now and later in the next weekend, if an ECL does form, at least it proves that an early Autumn break very nearly arrived in SE Vic. It will arrive for all of the seaboard of NSW though!!

Being the avid weather reporter I am, I'll head up to Pambula next Saturday to Tuesday to provide reports on what we "nearly got" in SE Vic.

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#1414584 - 23/03/2017 18:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Now that the latest event has been and gone, time to shift the focus back westwards to whatever's riding the winds. Looks like our first taste of the coming winter is finally heading our way! smile

The models and charts all have a mighty cold front and deepening low pressure system being set free from Antarctica, then charging northbound across the Southern Ocean en route to Southern Australia. Add to the equation a developing low pressure trough from WA.

Winds across Victoria swing around into a warm to hot northerly airflow during the weekend, gaining momentum and strengthening possibly to gale-force as the storm approaches, with the change striking late on Monday. Should see tops of 32C for Melbourne and 37C for Mildura.

Not a great deal of activity with the preceding trough, although we may see the odd shower or storm, but risk of heavier showers and potentially severe thunderstorms developing with the main cold front itself on Monday! smile

Worth keeping an eye on...

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#1420375 - 01/04/2017 18:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Looks like an extended, week-long (at least) dry spell coming up for Victoria. Nice to have the warmth back, but not pleased about the lack of rainfall. frown

ACCESS and GFS have a series of winter storms scheduled for next weekend. Fingers crossed! smile

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#1420381 - 01/04/2017 19:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Week after the next has possibilities for rain -

GFS map - http://www.weatherzone.com.au/agriculture/?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&c=14day&rc=14day&p=336

GFS 16 day - http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?location=Maffra.VIC&forecast=gfsext

EC - https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Maffra/long.html

Long way off but lets see what happens, in the mean time this currrent weather is perfect.


Edited by samboz (01/04/2017 19:23)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1420441 - 02/04/2017 10:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: ThunderBob]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.


Thanks Ken. A question which might not be answerable: does doing what WATL does increase accuracy through the averaging and adjustment or give a sort-of-washed-out result where good pointers from a well-performing model (or two) disappear under rouge indications from the other models? Feel free to say,"Your question doesn't make sense, Bob!"

WATL is an ensemble model. Ensembles are not as dynamic as the individual models. Ensembles are good at showing rough conditions of the day like whether it's going to rain or not. They are not very good at estimating anything specific like Snowfall and Rainfall or exact MSLP over Melbourne. Use single deterministic models for that, because they determine a result, not a myriad of options averaged.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1420675 - 04/04/2017 08:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
A blast of cold air on the way, 536 air will chill Vic off and snow is forecast from it.

ACCESS here -

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Our Max temp for next Monday is 16C.

Rain Monday - 80% chance of 2mm - 10mm - (NthGippsland.)


Edited by samboz (04/04/2017 08:58)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1420740 - 04/04/2017 21:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
ACCESS and GFS still holding onto a significant cold outbreak late-Saturday through to the early part of next week. smile

Both models have a massive, deep low pressure area moving through the Southern Ocean, then forcing an intense Antarctic cold front north towards Southern Australia by around Thursday. This front looks likely to interact with a trough coming down from the northwest and then possibly morph into a vigorous cut-off low/ECL by Sunday/Monday! smile

BOM predicting falls totaling around 20-40mm across much of the Melbourne area between Saturday and Tuesday, more so to the east of course (especially here in the Dandenong Ranges), with the "bay-effect" likely to come into play when the cold pool moves in. Definitely snow in the forecast for the Victorian High Country, and in the NSW Snowies too.

Also starting to keep my eyes open for what lies beyond, around the middle/latter-half of next week. ACCESS has another intense cold front moving north, then interacting with another disturbance in WA and evolving into yet another impressive cut-off low over the Bight, although more cold air could eventually get pulled in behind it from the south. smile

Unsure what to make of it, given that it'll be just before Easter long weekend when I'm likely to head for Corryong, Northeast Victoria. Part of me wants it to come off as I'd love some wet, stormy weather, with a possible cold outbreak with alpine snow thrown in. But part of me is also hoping for warm, sunny weather. Time will tell, given it's still a long-way off...

At least the current upcoming winter storm is likely to leave some borderline frosty mornings across the Upper Murray when the skies clear and the winds die down afterwards, so hopefully some beautiful autumn colours await me this Easter! smile

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#1420755 - 05/04/2017 08:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Saw that second cold front showing on ACCESS asf, another cool blast from down south.

We stand to get some good rain from this weekend on.

Currently have excellent cool/warm weather, no wind!!


Edited by samboz (05/04/2017 08:12)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1420804 - 05/04/2017 18:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
GFS on board !!!
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

Top
#1420807 - 05/04/2017 18:39 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
This system looks really cold and sharp
Samboz 😀
Looking at bom forecast today and there
Saying snow down to 1100m brrr lol
And at least an inch of rain over sun/mon

Pretty cold blast that's for sure for this
Time of year! Maybe a nice blanket
Of snow on the southern mountains
I'm thinking

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#1420959 - 07/04/2017 14:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.


Thanks Ken. A question which might not be answerable: does doing what WATL does increase accuracy through the averaging and adjustment or give a sort-of-washed-out result where good pointers from a well-performing model (or two) disappear under rouge indications from the other models? Feel free to say,"Your question doesn't make sense, Bob!"

WATL is an ensemble model. Ensembles are not as dynamic as the individual models. Ensembles are good at showing rough conditions of the day like whether it's going to rain or not. They are not very good at estimating anything specific like Snowfall and Rainfall or exact MSLP over Melbourne. Use single deterministic models for that, because they determine a result, not a myriad of options averaged.


Excellent educational post Snowy Hibbo, thanks smile
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

Top
#1420963 - 07/04/2017 15:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 555
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic



Vic - discussion on possible events to come - Weatherzone Forums

















































































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#1409873 - 27/02/17 09:20 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come


[Re: ThunderBob]


samboz
Offline



Weatherzone Addict





Registered: 16/11/14


Posts: 1396



Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...





Originally Posted By: ThunderBob

Will be interesting to view the rainfall deciles for the 3-months when they come out in a couple of days.


Tipping ours will be battling to get over 2 TB.






_________________________

Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 0mm





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#1409900 - 27/02/17 11:10 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


ThunderBob
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Registered: 23/01/11


Posts: 534



Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic





ACCESS G the only one holding on for the weekend rain - but patchy except for central and east Gippsland ... and, as Petros says, maybe again mid next week. But GFS and EC have given up on anything substantial. WATL remains positive for eastern third of Vic (is WATL based on ACCESS G?)









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#1409902 - 27/02/17 11:20 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


Ken Kato
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Registered: 05/03/12


Posts: 4251






WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.









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#1409904 - 27/02/17 11:28 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


Ken Kato
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Registered: 05/03/12


Posts: 4251






Rainfall amounts in eastern VIC will obviously depend a lot on if/how the potential ECL off southern NSW behaves towards the end of this week and weekend and how far south it manages to come. This will make a big difference between good rains and only a few showers in the S to SE flow.

Here's the percentages of forecast scenarios from three of the ensembles that are dropping more than a total of 25mm of rainfall within the 7 days following this Thursday:











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#1409929 - 28/02/17 10:09 AM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Ken Kato]


ThunderBob
Online   content



Weather Freak





Registered: 23/01/11


Posts: 534



Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic





Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.


Thanks Ken. A question which might not be answerable: does doing what WATL does increase accuracy through the averaging and adjustment or give a sort-of-washed-out result where good pointers from a well-performing model (or two) disappear under rouge indications from the other models? Feel free to say,"Your question doesn't make sense, Bob!"









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#1409977 - 28/02/17 02:29 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


ThunderBob
Online   content



Weather Freak





Registered: 23/01/11


Posts: 534



Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic





I listen when I can to the BoM forecaster twice a day on ABC radio (East Sale RAAF & Melb metro). Listening yesterday and this morning, the forecasters seeming to go on an educated hunch about weekend rain prospects and progging less rain than the official forecasts are stating.









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#1410018 - 28/02/17 06:23 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


Petros
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Registered: 30/12/02


Posts: 6310



Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...





Thanks Ken, didn't know what WATL was based on.

TB - we are spoiled by the skill of the senior RAAF Base BOM forecasters we have access to out here in Gippsland for sure.

Latest GFS run is still keen on the development of an ECL off NSW late this weekend/early next week:



Its a shame that the unseasonably cold air surge mooted possible a couple of days ago to surge up into Vic from W Tassie looks to be now "kept down" by the establishment of a high pressure system over the bight on Wednesday night.

As we all know, thing can change either way between now and later in the next weekend, if an ECL does form, at least it proves that an early Autumn break very nearly arrived in SE Vic. It will arrive for all of the seaboard of NSW though!!

Being the avid weather reporter I am, I'll head up to Pambula next Saturday to Tuesday to provide reports on what we "nearly got" in SE Vic.









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#1414584 - 23/03/17 06:59 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


aussiestormfreak
Offline



Meteorological Motor Mouth





Registered: 02/02/11


Posts: 5550



Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...





Now that the latest event has been and gone, time to shift the focus back westwards to whatever's riding the winds. Looks like our first taste of the coming winter is finally heading our way! smile

The models and charts all have a mighty cold front and deepening low pressure system being set free from Antarctica, then charging northbound across the Southern Ocean en route to Southern Australia. Add to the equation a developing low pressure trough from WA.

Winds across Victoria swing around into a warm to hot northerly airflow during the weekend, gaining momentum and strengthening possibly to gale-force as the storm approaches, with the change striking late on Monday. Should see tops of 32C for Melbourne and 37C for Mildura.

Not a great deal of activity with the preceding trough, although we may see the odd shower or storm, but risk of heavier showers and potentially severe thunderstorms developing with the main cold front itself on Monday! smile

Worth keeping an eye on...










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#1420375 - 01/04/17 06:57 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


aussiestormfreak
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Registered: 02/02/11


Posts: 5550



Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...





Looks like an extended, week-long (at least) dry spell coming up for Victoria. Nice to have the warmth back, but not pleased about the lack of rainfall. frown

ACCESS and GFS have a series of winter storms scheduled for next weekend. Fingers crossed! smile










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#1420381 - 01/04/17 07:17 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


samboz
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Registered: 16/11/14


Posts: 1396



Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...





Week after the next has possibilities for rain -

GFS map - http://www.weatherzone.com.au/agriculture/?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&c=14day&rc=14day&p=336

GFS 16 day - http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?location=Maffra.VIC&forecast=gfsext

EC - https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Maffra/long.html

Long way off but lets see what happens, in the mean time this currrent weather is perfect.






Edited by samboz (01/04/17 07:23 PM)


_________________________

Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 0mm





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#1420441 - 02/04/17 10:08 AM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: ThunderBob]


Snowy Hibbo
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Registered: 30/12/16


Posts: 179



Loc: Matlock, Victoria.





Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
WATL is an average of all the main models (EC, UK, GFS, JMA, CMC, ACCESS) then the system adjusts the areas of rainfall amounts to avoid the issue of rainfall bullseyes from some of the models getting smeared over too big an area.


Thanks Ken. A question which might not be answerable: does doing what WATL does increase accuracy through the averaging and adjustment or give a sort-of-washed-out result where good pointers from a well-performing model (or two) disappear under rouge indications from the other models? Feel free to say,"Your question doesn't make sense, Bob!"

WATL is an ensemble model. Ensembles are not as dynamic as the individual models. Ensembles are good at showing rough conditions of the day like whether it's going to rain or not. They are not very good at estimating anything specific like Snowfall and Rainfall or exact MSLP over Melbourne. Use single deterministic models for that, because they determine a result, not a myriad of options averaged.






_________________________

Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.





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#1420675 - 04/04/17 08:56 AM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


samboz
Offline



Weatherzone Addict





Registered: 16/11/14


Posts: 1396



Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...





A blast of cold air on the way, 536 air will chill Vic off and snow is forecast from it.

ACCESS here -

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Our Max temp for next Monday is 16C.

Rain Monday - 80% chance of 2mm - 10mm - (NthGippsland.)






Edited by samboz (04/04/17 08:58 AM)


_________________________

Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 0mm





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#1420740 - 04/04/17 09:48 PM



Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come

[Re: Petros]


aussiestormfreak
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Meteorological Motor Mouth





Registered: 02/02/11


Posts: 5550



Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...





ACCESS and GFS still holding onto a significant cold outbreak late-Saturday through to the early part of next week. smile

Both models have a massive, deep low pressure area moving through the Southern Ocean, then forcing an intense Antarctic cold front north towards Southern Australia by around Thursday. This front looks likely to interact with a trough coming down from the northwest and then possibly morph into a vigorous cut-off low/ECL by Sunday/Monday! smile

BOM predicting falls totaling around 20-40mm across much of the Melbourne area between Saturday and Tuesday, more so to the east of course (especially here in the Dandenong Ranges), with the "bay-effect" likely to come into play when the cold pool moves in. Definitely snow in the forecast for the Victorian High Country, and in the NSW Snowies too.

Also starting to keep my eyes open for what lies beyond, around the middle/latter-half of next week. ACCESS has another intense cold front moving north, then interacting with another disturbance in WA and evolving into yet another impressive cut-off low over the Bight, although more cold air could eventually get pulled in behind it from the south. smile

Unsure what to make of it, given that it'll be just before Easter long weekend when I'm likely to head for Corryong, Northeast Victoria. Part of me wants it to come off as I'd love some wet, stormy weather, with a possible cold outbreak with alpine snow thrown in. But part of me is also hoping for warm, sunny weather. Time will tell, given it's still a long-way off...

At least the current upcoming winter storm is likely to leave some borderline frosty mornings across the Upper Murray when the skies clear and the winds die down afterwards, so hopefully some beautiful autumn colours await me this Easter! smile










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#1420755 - 05/04/17 08:11 AM



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#1421015 - 08/04/2017 12:47 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Something a about with this pages formatting !?



edit.....but seems OK at the moment.


Edited by samboz (08/04/2017 12:48)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1421377 - 11/04/2017 18:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: samboz]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1658
Loc: Adelaide
Originally Posted By: samboz
Something a about with this pages formatting !?



edit.....but seems OK at the moment.


It appears that ThunderBob has done a screen grab (using scroll) of this page of the thread
_________________________
2017: 124.2mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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