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#1423192 - 12/05/2017 22:06 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Behind it, a potentially MAJOR winter storm event appears to be on its way, scheduled to strike Victoria in around 10 days' time!

On current indications, it looks like it might peak a bit too far west around the western Bight to allow an exceptionally cold deep SW flow before it starts sliding southeast but could still produce strong winds, etc for southern parts of SE Australia.

P.S. it also would depend on what the downstream cutoff low does before it


Edited by Ken Kato (12/05/2017 22:09)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1423883 - 21/05/2017 18:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Seems to me that high pressure over the continent is going to dominate the weather over the next 10 days or so?

....nothing other than grazing westerly systems passing below Vic from what I see, cold windy, showery at times, yet interspersed with sunny periods. Time to light the fires, windy days will be cold, sunny days will be frosty??

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#1423891 - 21/05/2017 19:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
I've only had a quick glance but from what I saw, it looked like temps will be above average to average for much of the coming week depending on where you are.
Of course on the days the wind does pick up, it'll feel cooler.

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#1423905 - 21/05/2017 22:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

A high dominates the East Coast of Australia including Victoria.

Average temperatures across the state.
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#1423962 - 22/05/2017 18:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Ken & SH

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#1424083 - 23/05/2017 18:19 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
It will rain again no doubt, in the meantime, mild calm days that continue to be dry........... but terrific to live in !!

Just saw a fat lamb producer on WIN GIPPSLAND NEWS who bemoaned the dry from a crop/fattening point of view but is enjoying the mild weather for lambing %'s.

Our Dorper lambs are fat as mud (mini numbers/not commercial) and four in the coolroom this arvo.

The weekend/early next week might have a dash of rain, fingers crossed grin

The mild conditions don't impact the sheep and they do well even though not a lot feed.





Edited by samboz (23/05/2017 18:20)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1424084 - 23/05/2017 18:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mmmm lamb sausages.

The 10 day GFS outlook reminds me of an arcade "whack the pop-up head" game.

Every time a SM cold front tries to loom up from the SW to impact Vic, the high pressure over Aus inland sags to the SE to push it all down over Tassie as it passes!

....wind/shower-sunshine/frost-wind/shower-s...........

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#1424091 - 23/05/2017 19:19 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Uneventful, but yep, more of the same'o, same'o, the highs being regular and controlling our weather P.

Have to take up golf if this keeps up----nah, 19th hole would be best one.... grin

Ps Lambs to good for snags, roast 4'qtr, hmmmmm.. grin

While we talk meat, never see the 4'qtr in shops any more, w/o doubt the most under rated lamb/sheep cut.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1424112 - 23/05/2017 22:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Sooner or later the highs will retreat north, this pattern can't hold out much longer over Victoria...

ACCESS and GFS seems to be hinting that Winter 2017 may only be days away from finally being ready to swing into action, with a whole parade of powerful storms from Antarctica ripping across the Southern Ocean into Southern Australia! Loving the sight of 'em, too many to count lol! Hope they come off as forecast! wink

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#1424114 - 23/05/2017 22:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
I like your optimism ASF lol. I can't see much out of the ordinary happening within the next week or two except the stronger front on Saturday.
Other than that, most of the other fronts look reasonably stock standard although at least that's better than nothing.

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#1424127 - 24/05/2017 07:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Certainly cooling next week, 14C max's here on Mon/Tue with that front.

ACCESS indicating a bit more rain on Tue than prev. S/W offerings, maybe snow for the season opening early June, even if it's only enough to make it look white.

Sometimes see calm weather go into June when April/May have been mild, shortens winter !

Cloudy almost warm morning (for May), no wind.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1424137 - 24/05/2017 09:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1017
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Agree samboz, going off access g this morning
It's looking like 2 quiet cold snowy blasts heading
Our wAy. The first on sat/sun and the second
On mon/tues👍
Will be a shock to the system if they hold
True and push Right through like the models
Indicate this morning, specially after it's been
So mild of late

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#1424171 - 24/05/2017 14:18 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Yep two cold fronts next week. I'll get the charts for you guys when I get back home. I am guessing 10-30cm from next week on the Victorian Alps. That 30/31 May coldfront is weaker on EC on 12z.
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#1424316 - 25/05/2017 17:26 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1017
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking increasingly like a couple of
Nice winter storms to enter vic 👍
The first on Sunday and the second on
Tuesday!
Gfs has 536 thickness right up into Victoria
With the first change on Sunday and hense
This the BoM are saying snow to 1000m.

The second blast due on Tuesday now looks
Even colder with gfs showing the 528 thickness
Line clipping south west Victoria!! 😀
So that might mean a really sharp snowy change
With snow maybe possible down to 5-600m
??
Very interesting cold weather coming up

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#1424325 - 25/05/2017 17:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The biggest problem for a lasting snow cover could be the ground warmth given our relatively mild weather and the rate it'll melt and run off.

This area is getting quite dry now, we need 1/2 to 1 inch of rain at a minimum.

Some local farmers into winter hay reserves to a greater extend than normal for late May.

Agree 528/536 very low Dooga' Max. for Wed. 13C here.....fresh!!

I'll still tip a mild June - any takers ? grin



Edited by samboz (25/05/2017 17:43)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1424327 - 25/05/2017 17:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1017
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah we are dry up here to samboz!!
We just had a delivery of water today,
That's how bad things are around here!
We desperately need 1" over the next week,
That would be really handy.

Speaking to a potato farmer over in
The thorp dale area and they are irrigating
Now lol, he has been in the game 50 years
And never had to water at the end of May!

Yeah both Sunday and Tuesday looking
Very fresh 😂
Our max temps are usually the same as
Ballarats and I see some single figures
Thrown in there ❄️❄️

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#1424337 - 25/05/2017 18:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz


I'll still tip a mild June - any takers ? grin



Agree, and for my 2 bob's - due to handy rain periods.

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#1424339 - 25/05/2017 18:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Looking increasingly like a couple of
Nice winter storms to enter vic 👍
The first on Sunday and the second on
Tuesday!
Gfs has 536 thickness right up into Victoria
With the first change on Sunday and hense
This the BoM are saying snow to 1000m.

The second blast due on Tuesday now looks
Even colder with gfs showing the 528 thickness
Line clipping south west Victoria!! 😀
So that might mean a really sharp snowy change
With snow maybe possible down to 5-600m
??
Very interesting cold weather coming up


Start a thread Dooga! smile

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#1424763 - 30/05/2017 19:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Useful site to look at future events -

http://www.janebunn.net/latest-guidance
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1425585 - 08/06/2017 18:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Outlook for the weekend looks frosty??:


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