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#1425586 - 08/06/2017 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4673
Especially Sunday in the north....



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#1425653 - 09/06/2017 18:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...

Thanks Ken. Light frost here this morning - but after a calm 15C sunny day, .....it's like a morgue out there atm. Definitely a morning to sleep in, if you, can out Gippsland way tomorrow!

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#1425658 - 09/06/2017 20:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
No one will get out bed early this long weekend.

look at satellite of weak upper low spinning West to North direction from North of Victoria/ South NSW.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austeast/movies/gmswv/gmswv_loop.html

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#1425768 - 11/06/2017 18:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
For those like "frost jaded" me - the outlook over the next 5 - 7 days might at least allow an alternative from cold-frost to cold-windy/drizzly for those in Vic's SW and coastal areas over the next 5-7 days???

.....For those Vic's N of the divide, more of the same I'm afraid if I'm reading the runes correctly.

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#1425995 - 14/06/2017 18:47 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
BOM has virtually zero rain between now and next Wed, this dry couple of months ( 2017 year figures) are looking ominous !!

Our patch has 141mm for this year!!

Need rain to get it all holding on, going backwards with grass and unusual to see some dry patches in June.

The H pressure systems are rolling by one after another, they should change, the sooner the better.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1426295 - 19/06/2017 18:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Could there be some precipitation/snow for Vic during this looming weekend?:



If anyone, who hasnt had there fingers burnt recently, can see any credibility in this latest GFS offering, please start a thread! smile

Continual frosts, no wind, no rain, no snow - makes the poor old Vic Forum a fairly boring space! frown

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#1426529 - 22/06/2017 21:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4673
Below is a CFSV2 map I posted in another thread at the end of last month showing its forecast pressure anomalies averaged across this month - it's unfortunate that the massive higher than normal pressures across the south have pretty much eventuated as forecast....



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#1426531 - 22/06/2017 21:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Hey Ken, is there one for next month?

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#1426706 - 26/06/2017 18:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4673
I'll post one when I get home LRH. In the meantime, a copy of a post I made elsewhere just then:

You can also see what toll the expected persistent big area of high pressure across the south has had on rainfall so far this month as well - large sections of SE Australia are actually currently on track for driest June on record unless a massive unforecast rain event happens:









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#1426773 - 27/06/2017 18:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yup, she's VERY dry. Thank God it's happening mid winter!

Hopefully a snowy cold wet outbreak will occur during July/August as the PDO has returned to neutral over the past few weeks?

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#1426783 - 27/06/2017 23:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 313
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Yup, she's VERY dry. Thank God it's happening mid winter!

Hopefully a snowy cold wet outbreak will occur during July/August as the PDO has returned to neutral over the past few weeks?
PDO doesn't affect Victoria very much. I would be watching SAM more.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1426796 - 28/06/2017 09:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Re S.A.M. - A small quote -

"Even the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) which indexes the day to day extent of westerly winds circumnavigating Antarctica has been close to normal, although on average slightly positive, which is a negative for rain. This leaves smaller local drivers of our weather patterns as the cause of this frontless and rainless winter. High pressure has dominated the southeast, failing to make its northerly migration to central latitudes."
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1427088 - 01/07/2017 17:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4673
Here's the latest suggestion from CFSV2 for MSLP anomalies averaged across this month - I wouldn't pay much attention to the isobars but rather, moreso the colour shading.
Of course there'll be some synoptic systems that buck that overall trend.

The rainfall deciles analysis for last month tells a sad and sorry tale not surprisingly:





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#1427095 - 01/07/2017 18:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Ken, can vouch for those stats!

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#1427146 - 02/07/2017 10:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Look like we'll have a couple of low pressure systems passing by over the next week. This time at a latitude high enough to impact Vic?

Hopefully many areas might accumulate 12-15mm or so?



A fair bit of inflow from the NW - maybe not so good for the snowfields.

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#1427149 - 02/07/2017 10:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 313
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Looks very good for Victoria and the snow, we are expecting 50cm this week.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1427166 - 02/07/2017 18:10 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ah, very good SH. Havent looked at the model updates yet, would love to see half a metre of snow up there for our dams!

Anyone keen on starting a thread for this pair of lows?

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#1427768 - 10/07/2017 18:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS is mooting a return for more typical July weather later this week:



I nominate our resident weather historian Samboz to initiate a thread for this sequence (which unfortunately will be preceded by more damned frosts?).

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#1427769 - 10/07/2017 19:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
GFS has white patches over us P, WATL not good this side of Sat. next (15th), ACCESS good for much of the state but B/All for us next Thur/Fri 14th/15th.

Dead in the water P !


PS...The BELLBIRD SIEGE offender in custody, no injuries round 1835hrs this evening.

8 Hours+ of traffic banked up, will roll soon on P/H'way I'm guessing.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1429480 - 01/08/2017 15:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1015
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looks like a series of fairly strong cold
Fronts to hit vic from this Saturday
Onwards!
I'll start a thread on this after petros's
Cut off low thread moves through first
And drenches all of us 😉👍

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