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#1432473 - 02/09/2017 09:40 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Next Friday looking interesting, could be some good rain in it.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1432956 - 06/09/2017 06:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Next Tuesday 12/9 is looking pretty handy for some rain, don't hold the breath though, anything can and does happen grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1433954 - 13/09/2017 22:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Hi Guys, I am back. It looks like the cold and wet Spring is going to roll on, just though I would let you all know.
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https://avweather.net/

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#1434129 - 15/09/2017 21:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5760
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
After weeks of waiting, it seems like the Battle of the Air Masses is FINALLY getting ready to swing into action across Southeastern Australia! Hip-hip hurray!!! =D

Expect wintry weather to linger over Victoria tomorrow, but conditions are expected to moderate as a high moves in during the weekend. smile

Then the warmth finally starts arriving State-wide (not just north of the Great Dividing Range) on Monday as the high retreats and winds veer blustery northerly ahead of the next impending cold front; Melbourne's likely to hit 22C. Expected showers and maybe a stray thunderstorm as the front swings across the State. Then colder on Tuesday, with alpine snow to 1400m. smile

Then things start getting more and more exciting! The next high muscles in from the west immediately behind the front on Wednesday, and it looks to be quite large, strong, and slow-moving. But it sets the stage for what could be the next potentially MAJOR winter storm event, and just in time for the 2017 Spring Equinox! grin

The high's slow movement across Eastern Australia into the South Pacific late next week will allow a persistent northerly airflow to become established across Victoria from Thursday onwards. This should bring an extended run of gloriously warm weather, and it could become quite hot across the Northwest/Mallee region, with Mildura going for 32C next Friday!

A cold front slips by to the south on Thursday, deflected by the high. Behind it though, ACCESS and GFS have an enormous, deepening Antarctic low pressure system and more powerful cold front charging northbound across the Southern Ocean en route to Southern Australia. The winter storm enters the Bight next Friday and links up with a developing trough over the WA Pilbara (the Pre-Monsoonal Buildup has now started firing up across the Outback and tropical Northern Australia).

Expect the northerly airflow to strengthen (possibly to gale-force) across Victoria by Saturday week as the storm bears down on us, could be the risk of bushfire in parts of the State. eek

BSCH has instability for Saturday as the cold front and trough strike, so maybe our first widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak for the season? wink

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#1434231 - 17/09/2017 09:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Have to love GFS 16 day extended forecast locally, 113mm on 2nd October.......... smile

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?location=Boisdale.VIC&forecast=gfsext
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1434234 - 17/09/2017 10:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Yeah GFS has a huge cut off at the end of the extended run. Wont happen of course.
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#1434270 - 17/09/2017 18:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6507
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....but you never know!

....the good thing about weather forecast watching, ...its always interesting what may, or may not, be ahead.

....and there's a shi#t load of snow to melt in a rush up in the alps just waiting for such an "X factor"!

Also AV - what would a South Aussie know about central Victorian weather anyhow!! wink


Edited by Petros (17/09/2017 18:39)

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#1434279 - 17/09/2017 21:21 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Yeah Petros without moisture at 500mb it will struggle, I think we may see a straight line upper trough instead just outside the 10 days and that will leave no moisture behind it.

I do have rain forecast in week 3, however I am not buying the big indeed just yet.
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#1434293 - 18/09/2017 08:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
The one in the end of the second week wont happen, but the one at the end of next weekend will.

Will all depend on moisture of course, the European isn't as bullish but GFS is now starting to think about a big event, similar to what EC has initially.

Looking much better this morning.
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https://avweather.net/

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#1434296 - 18/09/2017 09:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks AV, would really appreciate any other site addresses you use.

I look at GFS, ACCESS of course but have some reservations about accuracy of EC at this location - https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Maffra/


Edited by samboz (18/09/2017 10:00)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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