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#1457134 - 14/03/2018 11:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Windy.com Charts showing Gusty cool change about Lunch time Sunday for half of Victoria, looks like short heat in morning and reach East end by 6pm.

Then North Country stays warm another week until NW Heat returns from Friday 26th.. depends on the little trough/low sit.

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#1457150 - 14/03/2018 14:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
You're right I think CA. We're getting out of it a little easier with the change crossing much of the State before too much heating and for the rest the heat will be shorter than it would have been. Nevertheless I think it's still likely to be a challenging day and, if the front is delayed by only 2-3 hours, the situation changes significantly. I think it's a hard call for emergency management as to what sort of messages to put out to the community.

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#1457161 - 14/03/2018 15:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
The BOM forecast for Ellinbank on Sunday - looks better than some previous forecasts -

http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/ellinbank/

"Sun 18 Mar Forecast Showers Min19C Max29C Possible

rainfall: 0 to 8 mm Chance of any rain: 60% "
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1457172 - 14/03/2018 18:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Re models all over the shop, also interesting in the variances within each of the models each update over past 3 days!

Something to do with the actual and potential cyclogenisis in the Coral sea and off Darwin?

Whatever, less destructive weather is possible this coming weekend (well, ....on the present runs).

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#1457177 - 14/03/2018 18:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
WIN TV Gippsland News tonight, 1800-1830, CFA Rep talking 100kph winds mid/high 30's heat......................

Minister for Fires and B.S. also talking up the weekend.

Re "Cyclogenisis" be nice to see a heap of rain come down that low trough from the N.T., interested in any scenarios ? ie what could happen, chances of same ?

(A typical Summer scenario is a mongrel N/Wester with heat followed by a cooling S/W chance with a bit of rain, has always been so around this area)

Edit..Wouldn't be surprised with Sat. being the worst day over the weekend, higher Max temp and consistent N/Wester, similiar wind speeds
both days.


Edited by samboz (14/03/2018 18:55)
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1457178 - 14/03/2018 18:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Like Bob said, ....."interesting to see how the media release will be worded".

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#1457181 - 14/03/2018 19:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Just trawled models, can't see "HUGE" weather conditions over weekend, particularly Sunday.

GFS talked 1/2" on one site re Sunday, wind - nothing much over 22-26kph !!

Being a cynical (media) bstd, sometimes think the funding issue is at the base of some news items.

TIME WILL TELL.............. grin
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1457189 - 14/03/2018 20:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
It's very interesting this weekend, observing
The models this arvo, I'm a bit like u guys I
Now just can't see the event being as severe
As it possibly was looking like a day or so back?

Interesting samboz regarding what they had
To say regarding severe heat and 100k winds?
I just don't see that sort of severity going off today's
Models?? Unless they have access to other information
We're not privy to?
But, on the same toaken, it still has big potential
To cause plenty of trouble with both excisting and new
Start fires.
Bom forecast winds for west and south Gippsland
Northerly of 15-25km for sat
And nor westerly 30-50km backing westerly 25-35km
Late arvo. ( and then you would get those Stronger gusts
Of say 60-70km associate in those winds)

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#1457198 - 14/03/2018 20:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
No doubt CFA/Emergency Services have access to excellent sources of forecasting.

Missed this when wandering thru' models-

"Late arvo. ( and then you would get those Stronger gusts
Of say 60-70km associate in those winds)"

Would this be on Sun. and post/ or with the S/W change dooga', the more forecasting
analysis the better - thanks grin



Edited by samboz (14/03/2018 20:34)
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1457202 - 14/03/2018 21:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Samboz - my apologies for that, those gusts
That I referred to weren't actually off the forecast,
But I was more saying "in my opinion" u can sometime
Get those sort of isolated stronger wind gusts when
The bom are talking about 50km winds.👍😃

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#1457203 - 14/03/2018 21:31 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking at accessg update tonight and that
Shows the change well and truely through
By 11am Sunday lol even earlier than
Yesterday's run imo

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#1457205 - 14/03/2018 23:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 900
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
It may be hotter with longer period of consistent winds on Saturday but the change itself will be more concerning fire behaviour wise particularly if pyrocumulus is present.

You can plan and prepare for consistent winds, model spotting and spread, drop retardant lines, pre-position assets etc. Wind changes are complex. Forecasting timing and strength are getting better than it was but the fire behaviour models in use by jurisdictions have not done a great job at capturing how atmospheric events effect fire behaviour, fuels react to changes in humidity at different rates so the firie that forgets this or doesn't know gets caught out, and if pyrocumulus is present you can see huge releases of heat through condensation which adds to convection, further increasing ground layer airflow, again generally not modelled.

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#1457215 - 15/03/2018 08:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Cheers for that dlcat1👍

Looking like a very warm wind sat night
As well!

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#1457219 - 15/03/2018 09:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yeah, like it seems everyone, I'm having trouble envisaging conditions Sat and Sun. dlcat1 makes some good points -there will be periods on Saturday when the mixing height will be very high - necessary, beyond heat, dryness and wind for significant fire weather.

Again, the timing of the front is crucial.

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#1457228 - 15/03/2018 10:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
BOM today re ELLINBANK http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/ellinbank/forecast/detailed/#d2018-03-17

"SAT 17 March - Max temp - Between 11am&5pm, 32-33C Wind max 22kph from NNW

SUN 18 March - Max temp - " 8am&5pm 29C " " 26kph " W"

Given that this fire is relatively small and six days have afforded time to get into it,
with another couple before the weekend, there a really few excuses as to why it should cause problems with the forecast conditions over the coming weekend.

Hoping that some worthwhile efforts have been directed to effectively knock this fire on the head by means of mineral earth firebreaks and burning out remain fuels, or other proper methods to suit the location.

The problems start to compound when "other" priorities take control smile

Thanks dooga' understand and agree mate.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1457232 - 15/03/2018 10:51 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like after warm Saturday night 20c rough sleep and then cold nights from Monday night to drop below 9c,Tuesday 9c and Wednesday 8c.

Then warm up again to next weekend March 24th as charts not clear what ex cyclone from WA will do is move away West or move SE into bright..



Edited by chasers addict (15/03/2018 10:52)

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#1457237 - 15/03/2018 11:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep I agree with everything u say in your
Above post samboz👍

Let's hope they have got the important lines
In place and that wind stays down.
I do know they have been struggling with
Where the fire is burning along the face
Of mt worth and that's the only part of fire
That may not be contained. And I think
A big focus was on the southern edge of
Fire at top of ridge that runs along MacDonald
Track

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#1457264 - 15/03/2018 14:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Jilly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 184
Loc: Warrnambool
Heads up.Total fire ban declared Western District, Wimmera, Mallee for Sat 17th.

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#1457269 - 15/03/2018 14:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 900
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Also SW, Northern Country, North Central and Central.



Edited by dlcat1 (15/03/2018 14:50)

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#1457271 - 15/03/2018 14:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
That's a fair Chunk of the state for tfb!

Interesting no west and south gippy? Strongest
Winds maybe more overnight and Sunday
Morning out our way

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