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#1457377 - 16/03/2018 11:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
By March 25th u can see a crazy 4 cyclone/ tropical low 2 in WA Coast, 1 in North near Darwin and NE of Queensland ocean..

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#1457434 - 16/03/2018 18:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
For tomorrow, I reckon things will play out as per GFS.

High temps, 20 knt NW'ly winds during the day but mostly confined to the NW sector of Vic. ....and these winds to rapidly abate into the late arvo.

For Gippsland, getting hot (comparatively for this time of Autumn) - but not very windy? - hope my guess is correct!:


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#1457437 - 16/03/2018 18:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
BOM re Ellinbank tonight -

http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/ellinbank/forecast/detailed/#d2018-03-17

Saturday - Temps up @ 33C Max but wind speed moderate to 24kph.

Sunday - Temps down @ 18C by 8am & Wintery cool but wind up to 56kph.

Many will be interested in seeing how close these forecasts are and any fire outbreak from the McDonalds Tk fire.

Should be OK dooga, be very unlucky for this to get away after a week of work on it. grin

edit.just seen yr post re GFS Petros, been tinkering with the BOM data and watching TV 1/2 hr.


Edited by samboz (16/03/2018 18:55)

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#1457471 - 17/03/2018 00:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1321
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah hopefully it dosent break out samboz!

Just worry why the bom are forecasting gusts
To 100km over elevated parts of the whole
Southern vic?
I think this whole system will be very tricky
To pick wind strength and timing of wind
Direction and what not?

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#1457530 - 17/03/2018 12:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I think whole system into next week is giving us cool SW winds and less showers as cold uppers bypass, so Tasmanian will in wild weather...

So we will another wild weather next March 26th on wards see what happens NW heat and Cold uppers might merge into ex low pressure from WA...

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#1457697 - 18/03/2018 10:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Never seen before is warm air rise temperature to 29.4 at 1.30am.

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#1458117 - 20/03/2018 18:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Admittedly not a Victo-centric post, but looks like Aust is about to be attacked by the "Revenge of the Cyclones" later this weekend??:



A "late/weak La Nina", although not a rain quencher for the majority of Aussie, can still dish up some interesting weather!

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#1458143 - 20/03/2018 20:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yes Petros, hope cold uppers can fall some rain easy for bone dry Victoria.

Crazy 4 tropical low pressures is holding the High Pressure down to kill SW Trade winds to short...Sick of NE/SE winds for months...

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#1459445 - 27/03/2018 18:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like a dry outcome for Vic for next week? - with the synoptics predicted, lucky its not May/June else we'd have severe frosts!

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#1459487 - 27/03/2018 22:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Agree. boring most of next week and stay warm, as high pressure still killing West trade wind....

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#1460056 - 01/04/2018 12:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....and on it continues, basically dry until the week after next, first "rain" is at day 9 of AccG frown

Meanwhile, nice conditions for the Easter holiday makers!

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#1460593 - 03/04/2018 09:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nothing to report in this space.

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#1460621 - 03/04/2018 12:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...her-expert.html

All members what do u think....

I think too hard tell if more High Pressure cold frost or Cold polar winds

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#1460623 - 03/04/2018 12:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bom just updated to say be dryer and warmer from April to June 2018

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/archive/outlooks/latest-outlook.shtml

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#1460638 - 03/04/2018 13:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1321
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yes 'ca' it's very interesting reading!

The forecast David Taylor is putting out for
Winter sounds pretty extreme!!
And then bom comes out and pretty much says
The opposite of what he is forecasting, i
Suppose u would be backing the bom in
With there forecast rather than what David
Taylor is suggesting?? But then again he
Has some runs on the board picking the
Townsville rainfall event back in feb?🤔

Not sure if anyone saw Jane bun last week,
But I've been told she put out a long term
Forecast for winter that was suggesting
Something possibly closer to David Taylor's
Forecast? Lol

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#1460695 - 03/04/2018 16:39 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yep there two sides from him and bom by weekly times for Victoria March 29, 2018
https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/w...2ae44a905229cc6

So we wait until dark winter then find out who is right.

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#1460769 - 03/04/2018 20:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: chasers addict]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7638
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Yep there two sides from him and bom by weekly times for Victoria March 29, 2018
https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/w...2ae44a905229cc6

So we wait until dark winter then find out who is right.

A freezing or wet winter may occur regardless…the current pattern needs to be disrupted first before anything changes to the dynamics; a disruption from the north or south, or both.

The reasoning presented about the potential mechanism…is the inverse of what is known about planetary albedos. Why do people wear lighter-coloured clothes in summer, and rug up or wear darker clothes during winter?

Sorry, but there was an invitation to respond, and I AM responding!

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#1460955 - 04/04/2018 20:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Hence forecasting via sun spot activity ?

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#1460956 - 04/04/2018 21:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7638
Loc: Adelaide Hills
N.B.: I suggest doing the relevant research and investigating for oneself if one is interested enough... in external Earth influences, for whatever reason smile .

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#1461034 - 05/04/2018 17:19 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sunspots are the major climate driver for my 2 bobs. Agree that low solar activity is pending for 7 + years to come = equals La Nina friendly.

As for pending Vic weather, make sure there's plenty of gas for the BBQ, the outlook is far more about steak and beer, rather than anything interesting Huey's got up his sleeve.....

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