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#1462662 - 27/04/2018 19:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1975
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Re that cold blast -

"Friday 4 May
SummaryMin 5Max 5Snow shower or two. Windy.Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mmChance of any rain: 70%
Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds northerly 45 to 55 km/h tending northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning."

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mounthotham.shtml
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY- 20.5MM

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#1462688 - 28/04/2018 18:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6925
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I'd say start the thread DS, this stage at least a decent change for the West of the state:



Might be a bit of coldie storms with the initial front.

....at this stage by no means the Autumn break, (certainly not for Gippsland).

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#1462693 - 28/04/2018 20:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2497
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The Front will be pushed away quick in 48hours wind swing anticlockwise NW/W/SW to SE/E direction.

Weak cold uppers will decline slowly bring frost until High pressure warm up the uppers not bring below -0 degrees average about 5c.

We still have W.NW jet stream for another week so it might be around comer for SW jet stream to pin somewhere between WA to AFRICA

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#1462737 - 29/04/2018 18:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6925
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree CA.

Latest GFS run:



Second front might be the first hint of a snow season?


Edited by Petros (29/04/2018 18:53)

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#1462761 - 29/04/2018 19:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2497
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Petros, nice to have snow, but chart up dated..

I am very surprised how warm air is sitting in outback NW Australia will moving to SE Australia next Wednesday May 9th...




Edited by chasers addict (29/04/2018 19:56)

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#1463008 - 03/05/2018 13:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2497
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
After this quick cold front system May 4th low pressure, High Pressure keeping returning too long is the jet stream is blame.

We have two westerly jet stream of North and South.

North jet stream needs move more North as South jet stream is trapped far South in bright that's how we not get any cold uppers.

North Jet stream brings more dryer air from NW Australia.

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#1463784 - 13/05/2018 18:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6925
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
One massive mid winter like high arriving over Aus for the outlook, hopefully a few grazing showers along the southern coastal areas my defer the frosts in Gippsland until next weekend?

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#1463855 - 14/05/2018 23:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2497
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Interesting warmth for WA as cut off low ahead of WA dragging NW heat by May 24th only 8 days to Winter.

See what happens when High Pressure moves East bring warmth to SE by NW winds, still too early depends on jet stream.

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#1463868 - 15/05/2018 09:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1975
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Since that last cool lump of weather Winter is well heralded now around here, our max temps are from Today and fwd - 16C, 15C, 16C, 17C, 16C, 17C & 18C.

Even though cool max's, days are mild and nice to work in, haven't had heater on last few nights either.

Follow up rain for farmers in a week or so would be good, bit like a cash deposit banked for Spring.
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY- 20.5MM

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