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#1466229 - 22/06/2018 09:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1268
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hopefully somethings comes up not to far away front wise?
Jane bunn is suggesting possibly a good frontal system next weekend, so
Hopefully that comes off?

Just more frosty cold mornings and nice days to suit for now

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#1466230 - 22/06/2018 10:18 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2540
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Fri 07:00am very cold of -2.2c, with nice sunny.

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#1466253 - 22/06/2018 18:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS run (and backed by most models) shows that the existing NW-SE weak trough sitting over QLD/NSW atm will, in days to come, draw on moisture from the Solomons and create an East Coast Low off NSW mid next week??

Nice to see some use of the warmish (seasonally adjusted) waters around Aus can produce such and event this time of the year eh?:



Acknowledge it might'nt have any significant rain impact on Vic at this stage, but nice to see NSW have a chance of rain - they need it.

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#1466414 - 25/06/2018 17:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After the cold change later this week sweeps through, GFS is currently anticipating that the injection of cold air from it will re-trigger/invigorate the Easterly Dip currently developing over QLD/NSW resulting in a potential major ECL at it's bottom end (NSW/Vic).

If this were to occur, moisture source would be from Coral Sea (IMO) - not via a NW cloud band which would be more typical this time of the year?

For my two bob's: if it were to develop, would be La Nina like!:


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#1466453 - 26/06/2018 08:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Good obs P.

Could happen next Tuesday, 3/7, GFS certainly looking good, ACCESS and EC not on it yet.

Windy.com

Fingers crossed smile


Edited by Lindsay Knowles (26/06/2018 12:53)
Edit Reason: Fixed Link

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#1466455 - 26/06/2018 09:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Wandering thru Windy.com, above link, select "Pressure" and "Rain" from menu on the side, it shows a pressure/wind/rain animation.

All depends of the low to the ENE of Mildura next week.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1466611 - 28/06/2018 13:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2540
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Warm uppers from NW, WA are dragging into SE Australia for short time is not healthy for July 3rd. So looks like a sign of warm to hot next spring season is likely that my theory.

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#1466769 - 01/07/2018 20:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1268
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
According to the models there could be a quiet severe
Cold snap invasion at the end of week and throughout
The weekend! Will keep a close eye on this one

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#1466872 - 04/07/2018 08:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Wind roared thru the Wonnangatta Valley late y'day, some big winds forecast for Sale beginning Friday, today is calm, cool and some cloud, Max of 18C so it must clear later and is fed by a NNE to warm us up.

Better get the swimmers out grin (18C, whats that feel like been so long!!)
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1466879 - 04/07/2018 13:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2540
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like big cold pool polar to slam SE Australia around next Friday 13th July, as too early if chart upgrade or downgrade.

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#1467065 - 07/07/2018 18:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I see a return to frosts and high electricity wholesale prices for much of next week??

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#1467090 - 08/07/2018 10:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
The big high sitting squarely over us all week by the look of ACCESS will give that a high chance of happening P, quite chilly nights and mornings, clear days!!
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1467094 - 08/07/2018 12:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2540
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very terrible July only 2mm rain and cold fronts are useless not bring enough wet to SE Australia as El Niņo likey blame dry and warmer.

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#1467107 - 08/07/2018 17:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS is currently mooting a cutoff low system to develop in SE Aus after this weeks sunny break:



....no major rain for Vic, but early days, ....if it were to come off. Something for watch anyhow.

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#1467130 - 09/07/2018 12:21 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2540
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Interesting the Polar Southern Hemisphere is bit warmer.

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#1467141 - 09/07/2018 16:06 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2540
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Its worry this summer coming to 2019 as NSW farmer shares heartbreaking drought happening now. might impact Victoria next.


Edited by chasers addict (09/07/2018 16:07)

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#1467142 - 09/07/2018 16:39 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep CA, would be concerting for us in this area for this drought to continue into the coming summer.

Too early to call whether we are headed for Nina or Nino at this stage imo. Certainly has been Nino conditions here in N Gippy this year so far!

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#1467153 - 10/07/2018 09:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cut off Low system still likely to influence Vic's far East in coming days, followed by another vigorous cold front similar to last weekend's, late next weekend into the following week?

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#1467165 - 10/07/2018 16:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2540
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very lucky overcast burn off to sunny blue day as clouds trapped just on edge in my west of 15c

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#1467425 - 16/07/2018 11:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Not much to report here, other than typical 3-4 day weak frontal systems to arrive over the next 10 days or so......
Good for the snow fields though!

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