Maybe more of a , Hello " Indian " Summer .

the Following High behind that System looks to be centred right down near 50 S . So "it" could hang around longer than the Usual 10-14day " weather Reversal " that tends to happen when these types of patterns set in .
On top of this I would expected the WA trough to join the Party at some time also . My feeling is that Your Particular ECL maybe focused further Nth ( Wollongong ??? ) , and will only see Far eastern Gippsland strongly effected .

But then we are talking a fair way out , ALTHOUGH this is just seasonal TALK .

Easterly dip, not ECL. Still looks very possible going by last nights model runs.

Looks like Summers last gasps will be on Sunday.

GFS is still sticking with the E dip scenario for next weekend, AccR, WZ, & EC show a trend towards this too. With the passing front on Thurdsay it looks like a natural outcome to me. AccG thinks that the weekend will be subject to a passing low pressure system. Either way, they are all mooting more rain (not flooding at this stage) - but as usual I'm watching and expecting one soon out in Gippland.

Heres GFS's latest......

Looks like an ECL next Tuesday/Wednesday? Mainly affecting NSW but parts of Eastern and North Eastern Vic aswell.

Thanks for the heads up TheAnt (although I reckon you have been a contributor long enough to start backing up your progs with a reference source [eg. AccG reckons that....]).


Outside of Ants AccG scenario for early next week, the general easterly dip scenario establishing itself over Vic this weekend is not generally supported by all models.

Taking the mid prog (between extremes) - heres EC's outlook.....

Today the easterly dip outcome I've been banging on about has morphed into a pair of passing low pressure troughs (the first tomorrow) with the hint of a little cut-off to lag by only < 12hrs on the second trough passing later in the weekend. GFS....

Quote from my post above .

" So "it" could hang around longer than the Usual 10-14day " weather Reversal " that tends to happen when these types of patterns set in .
On top of this I would expected the WA trough to join the Party at some time also . "

i presume this second injection will be your ECL culprit . The First Trough will be TOO south reaching as hinted in my High placement well south statement . It seems the second maybe a little far Nth for a Bass Strait genesis . . ?

I think i should look at models before i post . LOL

SO, after the top 2 paragrahs are absorbed by a dummy like me (this may take a re-readtomorrow morning , wrong or right, I'm not gunna disagree with you!

Hmm, ACCESS and GFS (cant see other models) hinting at a NE (?) infeed into SA later next week which will then at some stage move into Victoria, possibly in combination with a cold front? Petros/Ruckle/Most of you probably know what it means.

Petros ,

To try and explain myself , I was responding to your questioning of the ECL possibility's . I originally discussed that I reckon this Trough dominated weather was here for alot longer than it usually lasts . ( 10-14 is the Norm , and Central / Nth and West Vic , tends to see there usual weather run in Reverse . )
This pattern ( which seems to be The La Nina's peak early next Month ) may see us Have an indian Summer well into Autumn , I can't see this Easterly dominated Troughyness being broken other than a couple of slight changes till mid - late March.

It might only take one or two NW infeed ( not far from average for Early Autumn , be it tail end of Kimberley/ Broome TC or just the first event of IOD [ think Hail storm 2010 ] proceeding the First Strong fronts , to see The Murray join the Darling in Flood this year . This next few weeks could provide the Primer for whenever we see a Significant NW infeed/ infeeds . From what I can see , The IOD is a fair chance to go strong negative this Autumn , add this to the Evaporative load that Lake Eyre and Menindee Region will provide for Pre Frontal Moisture .

The Trough the other day extended too Far south ( for ECL genesis ) as a result of the High and the convergence south west corner ( where a Front usually meets the Trough ) being Too far south also . This second one Tomorrow seems to have most of its energy Too far Nth , in the Trough , which is probably seeded to from outflow from WA's Trough . So Mid coast of NSW will see the worst that this can deliver .

Great wrap up SO. Agree with the outlook for Vic over the next 6-8 weeks (not saying my opinion is in anyway as accurate as others).

A dampish week ahead for Vic, followed by a humid sunny period Fri/Sat before settling into more dampness (one of these "dampness" events will be WET over the next couple of months IMO).

Well Petros look at ACCESS and GFS latests runs, disagreements as to where the rain will come from, but definetly rain.

Had to laugh at the channel 7 news last night. (Sydney one) Had us down for a 38c this coming Sunday. I wish

Heard Terry Ryan mooting "quite useful" rain to come for Vic into next weekend.

Looks like the high pressure system building for Vic atm will advect moist air from the interior (rather than the usual dry fire feeding winds more typical of this time of the year) as it departs Saturday night.

So it looks like a thundery saturday evening, with a decent (cold air'wise) cold front to intrude into the humid airmass over Vic towards Sunday evening. Terry says "useful rain" - Petros says "east coast low".

Could this be the drenching event most of us think is lurking out there in the wings?

GFS's latest (an exciting setup):

Petros im not 100% on this but it doesn't look to me like an ECL, from what I can see as you mention the high advects the moisture into Victoria (also assisted by an inland trough from SA that will deepen and go into Victoria, before a nice mass of cold air comes in, depending on when this cold front comes there could be a lot of different scenarios.

Just saw this arvos AccG and EC, they agree with you TA, looks like GFS is out on a limb with this prog atm.

Mind you ACCESS now not confident in Saturday producing anything at all for all of Victoria.

Yep I have bean keeping a keen eye on the models for the last 24 hours.

I think your right that this System will deliver usefull totals , as For ECL i'm not convinced . Regardless , it will be another slower moving Trough/front ??? system . Probably the system your thinking of / praying for ; will be more of a northern country Vic episode . And will be near stationary low that will deepen from the North . Could be a month or two until you see a " classic " Vic (below 36' parallel ) ECL ....

So i think GFS is on this . If you note the cut -off that is to form SW of WA and well nth of the Prevailing Roaring Forty Westerlies . Well this system was first picked up by GFS , then EC and then this morning Access . So if they get that right and it gathers momentum draws down from the WA trough and combines with the next surge in frontal activity come Sunday then its going to be on statewide . But that other strong system /scenario is out there , its just waiting for the right opportunity . Watch for a Blocking high to sit well below the bight around 50 deg S or even lower !!!!!