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#1469158 - 19/08/2018 17:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Be interesting to see what the Low spins up our way P, cannot be worse than the average situation this year.

Good spotting!

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#1469166 - 19/08/2018 18:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....continue to be very interested in what happens soon after this low pressure system arrives into NSW next week:



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#1469180 - 19/08/2018 20:42 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Interesting stable cold uppers low as Freezing altitude will sit from South WA to East Victoria and all south to Antarctica on 29th August so too early to hope move more North to East inland is likely heavy cold winter as spring not coming yet..

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#1469194 - 20/08/2018 08:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
All about the timing, AccessG now has the systems linking up nicely delivering fantastic falls:




EC doesn't with the low slipping down the NSW coast leading to only good falls in the far east. GFS also favours this view atm


Both are the 10 day total rainfall outlook

Still good to see that something is going to come down the NSW coast much different the current pattern


Edited by logansi (20/08/2018 09:00)
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#1469219 - 20/08/2018 18:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Goes to show what a Southern Maritime cold front can create if there's a bit of moisture about. This is what AccG moots will be the result of interaction with the cold change following the passage of a low pressure system over NSW this coming weekend:




Thread anyone?

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#1469222 - 20/08/2018 19:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Can we call the thread "all or nothing"

Jane's voting nothing she has Melbourne on 18C every day from Thursday through next Wednesday and clear


Edited by logansi (20/08/2018 19:08)
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#1469225 - 20/08/2018 20:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I think new tread properly Sunday as my weather forecast sunny days all way to Sunday as upper low edge far in NSW..

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#1469226 - 20/08/2018 20:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Agree and should have a better idea of what its going to bring by then
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#1469264 - 21/08/2018 08:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Friday week (31/8) could bring some good rain, N/W feed, along the lines of logansi's post models.

Interesting model on WINDY - (which changes of course with the effluxion of time) -

https://www.windy.com/?pressure,2018-08-30-06,-26.392,143.086,4


Edited by samboz (21/08/2018 08:28)

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#1469272 - 21/08/2018 10:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Continuing the all or nothing theme, presently GFS looks to have delayed the approach of the cold front which was/may still to collide with the low pressure system remnants that are to arrive over the period Jane was talking about:


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#1469292 - 21/08/2018 18:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Timing between the remnants of the approaching low pressure system over coming days, and the next change to follow early next week continues to look interesting to me, here's CMC's latest guess:



Logansi, an "all or nothing" thread looks worthy of a start?


Edited by Petros (21/08/2018 18:37)

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#1469294 - 21/08/2018 18:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Alright i'll start a thread once ACCESSG and EC have their latest run on WZ wink
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#1469657 - 28/08/2018 18:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Many regions of Vic (excl SW, S central, NE) are now getting desperate for spring rain.

....unfortunately not much promise from the SW/NW over the current outlook.

For my 2 bob's, I reckon then next chance of decent rain in Vic's SE might be from a classic East Coast Low that is mooted to spawn on the northern NSW coast later next week?:



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#1469735 - 30/08/2018 12:55 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like some tropical moisture (going by the sag in the red line over NT) should be available to boost the low pressure system due to arrive in Vic this time next week?:



The start of the spring snow melt?

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#1469777 - 31/08/2018 07:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
20C Max next Wed could help the snow melt P, once again the forecast looks good, be nice to see a decent fall.

Farm irrigators have been getting into it the last week, can't put it off any longer, waiting for rain, if they want some Spring growth.



Edited by samboz (31/08/2018 08:00)

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#1469961 - 02/09/2018 18:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Models have all downgraded the rainfall totals from the the front coming through on Thursday, mostly less than 5mm other than in the NE and Gippsland Coast other than that looking like a fairly sunny outlook with a number of nice days coming up and not much rain.


Edited by logansi (02/09/2018 18:33)
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#1470026 - 03/09/2018 16:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very surprised the Heat start mature in outback of NW of Australia to pump warm air-mass right to SE Australia next Monday and High Pressure trying pushing cold uppers away

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#1470053 - 03/09/2018 19:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1321
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Ominous signs from the models that things are going
To start really drying out early and that the old elnino
Is trying to take hold imo!!
All of a sudden showing minimal rain and mild to warm(for this
Time of year) temps!!
High pressure pretty much looks to block most fronts trying
To break through!

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#1470105 - 04/09/2018 10:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Little upgrade in falls for this week in central and north Eastern Area. 28C for Mildura next Monday!
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#1470131 - 04/09/2018 14:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The near term looks to allow some moisture to be advected into Aus from the top end.

This should allow storms with the fronts this week and mid/late next week?

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