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#1471121 - 23/09/2018 18:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1178
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Patients is wearing thin right now. Every system is bringing nothing but a few showers also seems every system just gets downgraded on a daily bases by the models.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1471172 - 24/09/2018 11:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
At least the high pressure systems are now centered below the continent, surely opens the door for some wet changes linked to NW cloud bands when the MJO returns to the Indian Ocean during October?

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#1471245 - 25/09/2018 11:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Late-season chill grips southeastern Australia
is well said by Weatherzone and cool to warm day time to cold nights between 1c to 5c for Bendigo.

Looks like spring season is short and switch to warm to hot when North Half Australia Heat starts give way to SE Australia when High Pressure or Polar belt start move more south.

We had short Autumn this year and long cold winter season.

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#1471556 - 29/09/2018 11:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1178
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Latest BOM outlook for October has the big dry continuing

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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1471662 - 30/09/2018 13:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yep logansi, we are likely dry starts from VIC/NSW boarder and creep to Central Victoria when no rain.

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#1471682 - 30/09/2018 17:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1178
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Unlikely anymore rainfall will be recorded for September so this means 21 stations have broken September records

Mildura, Hopetown, Swan Hill, Edenhope, Horsham, Nhill, Stawell, Warracknabeal, Castlemaine, Falls Crk, Mt Hotham Airport, Ararat, Mortlake, Mt William, Westmere, Lakes Entrance, Mt Nowa Nowa, Omeo, Bundoora, Laverton, Scoresby and Viewbank.

Also only 2 stations have exceeded the monthly average being Yarram and Pound Crk.

There are also more than a dozen stations which saw rainfall within 2mm of the record.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1472066 - 05/10/2018 07:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2120
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
An exciting ECL possible next week, models to far out IME but indications a low in the Bight could travel nicely over Vic.

ACCESS (As it often does this far out) has the best rain this year for E/Vic. Other models not as good.

Got the fingers crossed if this one comes off cool

Cool morning in Sale, Min 6.4C @ 0321hrs. Warming up nicely now with
a S/E.

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#1472090 - 05/10/2018 12:40 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, would be good, have to look at the next model runs to see if the other models come into line.

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#1472145 - 05/10/2018 19:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS agrees as well on latest run:



....your turn to start a thread Samboz

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#1474528 - 23/10/2018 17:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like big hot heat 1st of November to effect most Australia to NW Victoria Mildura hit 38c.

Danger is to come for dry grass.

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#1474529 - 23/10/2018 17:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1178
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah still early but looks like our first really heat event is coming up. The fact that the low event isn't going to happen this weekend is going to have a big impact I think - instead of topping up nicely the last even we move into a period of dry, mild and sunny days..
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1474534 - 23/10/2018 18:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
See what you mean CA/L - I reckon the heat will have tropical moisture included though, so the change following might be a clanga!?

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#1474541 - 23/10/2018 19:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1326
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Really wishing that moisture would come back
On the models for this weekend!
Weve picked up 26mm so far this month which
Is way down on the 92mm average we should
Get. The old grass is struggling to really get going
This spring so far.

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#1474569 - 24/10/2018 11:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yes Petros the chart increase some humid mix with warm hot and chart seem bit messy so long way yet.

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#1474620 - 25/10/2018 09:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had cold night dropped right down 1.9c 6.30am this morning and more all way next Monday. feels like late spring season bring average mild nights.

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#1474722 - 26/10/2018 12:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
From next Thursdays 1st on ward should be some good humid rains for Victoria cross fingers.

The Heat in outback looks awful and like start horrible November all way into 2019 is for sure.


Edited by chasers addict (26/10/2018 12:36)

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#1474739 - 26/10/2018 21:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1326
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looks like we could see a couple of very light
Showers through the day Tommoz, which will
Probably be less than a mm Id say. Then dry
For the rest of October, with a quiet hot finish by
Friday/Saturday next week!! Big dry out period
If we dont get some half decent rainfall after the end
Of next week

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#1474740 - 26/10/2018 21:55 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1326
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Unless something drastic happens, it looks like
We will end up 60-70mm down on rainfall for October

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#1474754 - 27/10/2018 13:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looking forward to few days hot over 30c next week until next change is bring rain next weekend as chats looks good.

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#1474761 - 27/10/2018 16:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3837
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Our Trafalgar and Maffra correspondents may be interested to know that, assuming no more significant rain between now and Wednesday, the West and South Gippsland district will have had its driest 22-month period on record over the period since the start of 2017.

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