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#1471121 - 23/09/2018 18:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Patients is wearing thin right now. Every system is bringing nothing but a few showers also seems every system just gets downgraded on a daily bases by the models.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1471172 - 24/09/2018 11:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
At least the high pressure systems are now centered below the continent, surely opens the door for some wet changes linked to NW cloud bands when the MJO returns to the Indian Ocean during October?

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#1471245 - 25/09/2018 11:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Late-season chill grips southeastern Australia
is well said by Weatherzone and cool to warm day time to cold nights between 1c to 5c for Bendigo.

Looks like spring season is short and switch to warm to hot when North Half Australia Heat starts give way to SE Australia when High Pressure or Polar belt start move more south.

We had short Autumn this year and long cold winter season.

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#1471556 - 29/09/2018 11:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Latest BOM outlook for October has the big dry continuing

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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1471662 - 30/09/2018 13:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yep logansi, we are likely dry starts from VIC/NSW boarder and creep to Central Victoria when no rain.

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#1471682 - 30/09/2018 17:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Unlikely anymore rainfall will be recorded for September so this means 21 stations have broken September records

Mildura, Hopetown, Swan Hill, Edenhope, Horsham, Nhill, Stawell, Warracknabeal, Castlemaine, Falls Crk, Mt Hotham Airport, Ararat, Mortlake, Mt William, Westmere, Lakes Entrance, Mt Nowa Nowa, Omeo, Bundoora, Laverton, Scoresby and Viewbank.

Also only 2 stations have exceeded the monthly average being Yarram and Pound Crk.

There are also more than a dozen stations which saw rainfall within 2mm of the record.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1472066 - 05/10/2018 07:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
An exciting ECL possible next week, models to far out IME but indications a low in the Bight could travel nicely over Vic.

ACCESS (As it often does this far out) has the best rain this year for E/Vic. Other models not as good.

Got the fingers crossed if this one comes off cool

Cool morning in Sale, Min 6.4C @ 0321hrs. Warming up nicely now with
a S/E.

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#1472090 - 05/10/2018 12:40 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, would be good, have to look at the next model runs to see if the other models come into line.

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#1472145 - 05/10/2018 19:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS agrees as well on latest run:



....your turn to start a thread Samboz

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#1474528 - Yesterday at 17:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like big hot heat 1st of November to effect most Australia to NW Victoria Mildura hit 38c.

Danger is to come for dry grass.

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#1474529 - Yesterday at 17:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah still early but looks like our first really heat event is coming up. The fact that the low event isn't going to happen this weekend is going to have a big impact I think - instead of topping up nicely the last even we move into a period of dry, mild and sunny days..
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1474534 - Yesterday at 18:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
See what you mean CA/L - I reckon the heat will have tropical moisture included though, so the change following might be a clanga!?

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#1474541 - Yesterday at 19:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1304
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Really wishing that moisture would come back
On the models for this weekend!
We’ve picked up 26mm so far this month which
Is way down on the 92mm average we should
Get. The old grass is struggling to really get going
This spring so far.

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