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#1477783 - 29/11/2018 11:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Weather December changed cooler for Victoria feels like going back 1990s pattern with more SW to SE change feel like go Queensland Holidays for swim.

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#1477864 - 29/11/2018 20:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
What are the thoughts on the strength and chances of the forecast storms overnight Saturday 01/12 into Sunday 02/12?

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#1477870 - 29/11/2018 22:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: balmz]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: balmz
What are the thoughts on the strength and chances of the forecast storms overnight Saturday 01/12 into Sunday 02/12?


Expect a bit of a line will move across the state just ahead of the wind change, doubt it will have much rain in it maybe 5mm at best. Fire Weather Forecast has warning for dry lightning


Edited by logansi (29/11/2018 22:37)
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#1477912 - 30/11/2018 11:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Balmz and Logansi , well stormcast shows nothing less 10mm as weaken once reach West Victoria early Sunday morning.

Windy.com shows Thundery change to central Victoria about 8AM is light rain.

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#1477938 - 30/11/2018 15:42 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
TFB for Wimmera and Mallee tommorrow

Meanwhile the Worlds first Large Air Tanker with Night Vision Goggles and night fire fighting approval just departed for Melbourne from California. This season could potentially see the worlds first large air tanker drop conducted at night on an active fire, this on top of our Australia first night time helicopter aircraft

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#1477945 - 30/11/2018 17:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Queensland might need hire this plane for help

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#1477953 - 30/11/2018 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Queensland might need hire this plane for help


NSW already has its 3 Large Air Tankers in QLD, Night Trials are only approved in Victoria at the moment so sadly they won't be doing night fly up there, plane is to expand Victoria's fleet and expand to NSW over the next few years before doing nationwide.
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#1478046 - 01/12/2018 20:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
BOM have slightly upgraded N Gippy to a storm with circa 4-8mm tomorrow morning. Hope that comes off.

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#1478711 - 07/12/2018 11:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Next weekend looks like slow moving upper trough bring very heavy rain for West to Northern Country as up-to 60mm likely if chat don't downgrade. Still another week to go.

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#1478734 - 07/12/2018 16:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Next weekend looks like slow moving upper trough bring very heavy rain for West to Northern Country as up-to 60mm likely if chat don't downgrade. Still another week to go.



Yeah could be a significant rain event next week, with widespread falls up to 50mm statewide, really need it, its drying up quickly
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#1478780 - 08/12/2018 08:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Just an update to the possible big event next week, here are the most recent model runs total rainfall.


GFS


EC


ACCESS
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#1478796 - 08/12/2018 10:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Fingers crossed!

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#1478799 - 08/12/2018 11:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: Petros
Fingers crossed!


Yep! Still a lot of uncertainty despite the rainfall totals looking similar they don't agree on how they get to them so still plenty that could change.
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#1478813 - 08/12/2018 15:55 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Logansi...I checked meteologix.com/au charts same very good cross fingers good rains.

Hope second upper low trough in WA move to SE Australia repeat, too early yet.

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#1478815 - 08/12/2018 16:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wow!! This arvo gfs update is off the charts
Rainfall wise lol
Predicting about 100mm of rain over 2-3 day
Second half of next week for west south
Gippsland, if we get that then that will see us
Through to jan I’d reckon for any fire threat.

Also has upped rainfall totals sun/ Monday around
Here

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#1478987 - 09/12/2018 18:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Time for a thread on this coming weeks ECL (or two?). Who's up to it!?

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#1480427 - 14/12/2018 16:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
As the low slowly starts to decay I guess we better look at whats up next and well no much really....

One the low clears another inland low will form to the west and slip to the south, leading to a bit of heat before a cool change on Wednesday, maybe reaching the 40s in the north and low 30s in the south.

But without a tropical connect will only delivery a few showers at best. Beyond that a high will move into the bight delivering southerly winds and stable conditions at least until next weekend.
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#1481462 - 17/12/2018 21:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep not much going to happen rainfall wise for
A while now imo.
Will get a sprinkle Thursday/Friday maybe a few
Mm here and there but that’s it. Then it looks like
All fine warm to hot weather leading right into
New year!
Worries me that we didn’t see substantial rainfall
Over the Gippsland area with this system just gone,
Have seen it all before where these type of system
That are so big are like a ‘last hurrah’ type of event
And then u get nothing but hot dry weather with no
Substantial rain for extended period.

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#1481469 - 17/12/2018 22:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Sure is looking hot over the Christmas period at the moment. Multiple days over 30 nearing 40 will reduce much of the benefit this recent rain has had. There is a massive amount of heat of the NW, Fitzroy Crossing is averaging 42.9 for December +3.9 above average, has broken its record twice this month and could do it again with 48 forecast on Thursday.




I have a funny feeling like you that we may move into a dry period going forward, while not to the same extend there is a strange comparison to 2008, which as I pointed out had a major rainfall event on exactly the same days as this one (13-15 of December Melbourne had 80mm). 2008 as we all know was a drought year, like this year however from my research much of the state had average Novembers and wetter than average Decembers, again like 2018. Who know's whats to come but we all know what happened in January and February 2009


Edited by logansi (17/12/2018 22:33)
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#1481540 - 18/12/2018 20:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Still looking very hot for next week, significant portions of the state likely to see 2 40s in a row.



Still no confidence in the models at this far out as to timing of the change likely sometime very late Thursday or Friday. Once we get more confidence on this i'll create a thread.


Edited by logansi (18/12/2018 20:14)
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