#1022618 - 19/10/2011 20:06
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Just looked at the latest AccG, it seems to think that the troughy period we are about to enter later tomorrow might hang around for ages (well 7 days) and finish it all off with a "bang" courtesy of a cut off low spawned from a cold aired LWT that passes by close enough to leave a "knot" behind amongst the lingering humidity. There IS weather for Vic to keep us keen for a week!  Bring it on. [edit] - by the way heres AccG's progs for rain for 24 hrs near this time next week (and the day later even more from Bairnsdale E'wards)..... 
Edited by Petros (19/10/2011 20:09)
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#1022626 - 19/10/2011 20:20
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 20/12/2010
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
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I agree with you Petros. It will be an interesting next 7 days, starting from tomorrow night? Watching that cloud coming through from the west looks quite volatile - goody
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#1023167 - 21/10/2011 21:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: duckweather]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Its hard to discern the end of this present weather event - the moisture available to Vic looks to persist for another week if I'm reading things right. Like me, the models are all over the shop. With the brushing of the LWT passing below us later next week we could either end up with: 1. A new high pressure system finally battling its way over us by end of next week clearing all this out 2. A cut-off low born from the next LWT passing circa Thurs 3. An Easterly dip situation... a general large scale inland low system over inland E Aus. Dont ask me! - I'll just go by "where theres smoke theres fire" (the betting side of me puts 2 bob on the Easterly dip  . Its gotten moist outside here in Vic right now and I cant see it going away real fast.
Edited by Petros (21/10/2011 21:21)
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#1024131 - 25/10/2011 20:00
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: travelling East coast of OZ
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The BOM on ABC radio yesterday said change arriving to west Vic on friday and passing state on saturday.The BOM wind forecast map indicates a developing embryonioc ECL on the sunday night on the far east coast of Vic. In the past this set up of ECL development has seen Vic with an arching jetstream over VIC and some rain. I would agree with EC and your rainfall forecast petros. http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/AU/2xJetStream.htmlThe arch on the jetstream is not in view yet.
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#1024526 - 26/10/2011 23:13
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: travelling East coast of OZ
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Petros.Any chance you could post the AccG diagram for your above post. Would be good to follow and look back after the event. Good to look back and see their performance.
I noticed the ACCESS G forecast you posted above is only one day out.( early).Will be interesting to see fridays rain totals and compare.
EDIT. No ECL on sunday with the Wind forecast update but a small low on the S/west coast of vic embeded in trough on Saturday .
Edited by crikey (26/10/2011 23:15)
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#1024644 - 27/10/2011 18:02
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: crikey]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Heres GFS as it has morphed a couple of iteration later Crikey....  The trough between the 2 high centres looks less likely, it looking like the centres of this double-yolker might merge. Fast looming into the postable range for a new thread (be it warm sunny days OR troughy stormy days ). [edit] - sorry Crikey, just realised that what you meant was post the "early-thus-inaccurate" chart that we are commenting on at that time. Noted.
Edited by Petros (27/10/2011 18:05)
Edit Reason: The light just came on..
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#1024697 - 27/10/2011 21:01
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: travelling East coast of OZ
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THe GFS 148hr forecast for next thursday the 3rd November( 6 days out) you posted above petros has some interesting features to 'toy with'.
Looks like we are assured of a nice big high pressure cell approximating from next monday to the following weekend of the saturday the 5th november( thats 6 days of high pressure or there abouts) then next trough approachesVIC (another long trough extending across from southern OZ right up the equatorial region once again.)
The next trough has similar features to this one in that a low is forming off the S/west coast of WA and moves across OZ .
And so you would expect a similar scenario to now in that a broad trough brings thunderstorms and rain to the interior once again and we in Vic are likely to get a repeat of this weekend in the future around about the Saturday 5th November.
For Queensland the northwest/s/east trough line pattern continues and so more of the same for Queensland.
Synoptically speaking it looks more of the same .The pattern of long broad troughs in between quite large highs.
Looks like a bit of some hotter temps dipping down into the NT around next Thursday as well.Anyway l like the idea of some fairly regular rain/showers for VIC atm.My garden is dry and we are under the mean here atm
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#1026404 - 2/11/2011 23:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: travelling East coast of OZ
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Hi Petros. Just had a brief look at the BOM wind forecast map for this period .There is one thing l can say. The wind map indicates a period of what l could say somewhat erratic wind flow patterns. in other words not very neat.
Over Vic the wind flow seems to vary from day to day . Sometimes a .low pressure flow and then anti-clockwise flow.It would seem the highs and trough do a bit of volleying for position in and around VIC ? which would make outcomes a little difficult l would have thought. If that were to pan out it could ? limit the precipitation potential .
The GFS model( wednesday 9th NOV)) above has some heavy rainfall at barom pressure of 1008 and 1012. I didn't feel comfortable with that.Also the s/west flow which rarely gives us in the north some heavy falls l am sure? It looks as though it is relying on a moisture laden North west infeed passing over Vic. Look forward to how it pans out.
One thing l do like is the strong equatorial in-feed into the the mid-latitude belt of the southern hemisphere at the moment as seen on met office world satellite imagery.
If anythings going to make me optimistic for some more good rainfalls l would say the southern hemisphere sat pic looks very promising this week at least
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#1030656 - 15/11/2011 00:14
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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GFS has been swinging the last few days with high precip Albury area over the weekend.
I am going to Coldchisel outdoor concert in Wodonga Fri 18th. Do you think chisel could sing me up a storm and then Barnsey be drowned out by thunder?
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#1031318 - 16/11/2011 19:42
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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EC has progged 23mm for N Gippsland next Wednesday, WZ hasnt posted updates for EC of AccG models yet so I cant comment on model consensus. Theres already rain comming for Vic this weekend, plenty already had (yest/last night), and now the notion of more mid next week?? - La Nina - gotta love it Commiserations to Globlal Warmist/Alarmists who said Vics dams would never fill again [edit] WZ has just updated GFS run, it wants nothing to do with mid week rain (thank God for the VIc farming harvesters).
Edited by Petros (16/11/2011 19:45)
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#1032574 - 20/11/2011 10:16
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Whats going to happen after the next high clears to Vic E at the end of next week? There is going to be plenty moisture available to Vic N again! If something can allow it to be drawn down we (here) will be swimming! 90+mm here this month so far. So this prog from GFS for next Friday night looks a bit omninous!  Maybe time to start a thread eh (I always stuff up the dates!).
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#1032641 - 20/11/2011 13:39
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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I read elsewhere that maybe in a fortnights time roughly that we could be in for a very large scale rain event if things line up right. Of course it is a long time away and I am sure there will be some rain and storms in between.
I DO ENJOY the build up to these systems and find it absolutely fascinating reading others opinions of how the system may pan out, it is much more interesting then listening to the weather on the tv or the radio. It's like a child looking at their presents under the christmas tree, the anticipation and the waite is what makes the unwrapping so much better.
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#1032889 - 21/11/2011 11:15
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Will this cross the border or not Fri-Sat? Some models toying with the idea.
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#1033154 - 22/11/2011 12:19
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: liberator]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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I get my models from weatherzone and pay for the Pro Silver Acces which I think $5.00 per month. You can still see some models with out joining If you go click on radar & maps then click on australian charts (above weatherzone 14 day outlook) then click on BOM it will give you the access model runs or click on GFS will give you GFS model runs, then you can click on each day for a bigger view. If you are signed up with Pro you get many extras like being able to get a close up of a particular state it will also also give you access to the CMC, TWC models etc and there are quiet a few other things that you can access too by joining up with the Pro that are especially handy for storm followers. Hope this helps Liberator.
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#1033312 - 22/11/2011 20:12
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
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#1036796 - 30/11/2011 22:43
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Have been watching the models, looking more interresting this evening. An article on WZ of warning winegrowers in SA that there is more rain to come late next week, but will that system head into NSW or will it flow into Vic? And of course there is talk of more rain when the monsoonal season starts. Lanina seem be firing, esp for NSW.
Anyway enough of my blaa blaa blaa.
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#1037087 - 1/12/2011 11:37
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/01/2011
Loc: Taylors Hill
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Thunderunder...keepp the blaa blaa going, I find yours and others input so informative. I have been reading, but not contributing to the ENSO discussion. Really interesting reading all the comments and others points of view on this current La Nina. Have been watching the models, looking more interresting this evening. An article on WZ of warning winegrowers in SA that there is more rain to come late next week, but will that system head into NSW or will it flow into Vic? And of course there is talk of more rain when the monsoonal season starts. Lanina seem be firing, esp for NSW.
Anyway enough of my blaa blaa blaa.
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#1037326 - 1/12/2011 16:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Katyer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Huh that's funny, BOM 10 day charts showing it developing a lot in SA on friday, before dissapitating in Victoria and then redeveloping a little.
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#1042001 - 11/12/2011 20:16
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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You can start it lol, althought that does look really nasty. I actually hope that's not what happens because that could be some serious flooding.
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#1042120 - 11/12/2011 22:13
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Cloud Gazer
Registered: 11/12/2011
Loc: Bendigo
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There is a LOT of interest on this comming weekend on other forums. I'm very concious of avoiding the WZ Vic forum thread intiation from being a "Petros" dominated. Latest models are loving this event. Especially US 8day on WZ with 80mm in central and northern Vic. Looking forward to it.
Edited by Matthew Pearce (11/12/2011 22:14)
_________________________
Storms, Heavy Rain, Snow, Severe Weather =
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#1044927 - 17/12/2011 19:22
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: SCI18]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 14/03/2010
Loc: Ravenswood QLD/ Melbourne CBD
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80mm....there wont be any victoria left! haha I'm just having a gander at the new forum pages i'll have to look at. QLDer here but am coming down for Uni and I can't wait. When does "most" of the weather occur? (Mainly storms) anyway...hope you get swept away in 80mm of rain (and if you want to send it north you are more than welcome  ) and enjoy your warm hopefully sunny christmas....I think ours will be rained out
_________________________
Ravenswood is a hole...In fact if there wasn't a hole there wouldn't be a Ravenswood!
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#1044930 - 17/12/2011 19:28
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: dawoodman]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Funny how much the models changed woodman Anyway most of our storms occur like the rest of Australia in Spring and Summer, spring probably has the most severe but Summer has the most imo.
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#1045635 - 19/12/2011 11:20
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Boxing day could be interesting.
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#1046192 - 20/12/2011 20:02
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Looking at the current AccG and GFS runs, between them, I can construe an ECL event to crawl down the Aus SE coast as a possible outcome to throw into the ring with the rest mid next week (27-29/12/11). If this was to happen it would potentially only affect Vic S of the ranges from Packy E so its a bit of a self centred post I guess. It would require the potential coral coast cyclone "Fina" NOT to form IMO though! But it could/would interest Melbournites re the potential Thompson Dam input? - (how did I go? ).
Edited by Petros (20/12/2011 20:03)
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#1048660 - 26/12/2011 18:31
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Well, after the Christmas mayhem in the new storm mecca - Melbourne, it looks like we'll have to put up with cool boring holiday wrecking S to SE regime along Vics S coast through to Fri 30th before the next high establishes itself over SE Vic. AccG and GFS show the high sticking around till the following Monday night before the next "weather" will arrive. At this stage, my guess is that it'll be a far less sexy SW'ly change. Hopefully with some storms with it. We got 26mm rain over past 2 days so wont complain! - our second summer shaping up to dodge those long hot periods.
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#1049706 - 28/12/2011 12:58
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Ruckle]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 19/01/2007
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
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Precipitable water values are forecast to be quite high with the heat for the New Year period. GFS has DPs staying in double figures for a lot of the time. I know GFS often overdoes the humidity but it's still going to be a lot higher than what we normally see in heatwaves here in summer. La Nina seems to be peaking at the moment and there is a heap of moisture available from the NW tropics. It's not the typical dusty desert summer that we often see in VIC. With the higher humidity, models are predicting much lower temps than you would expect to see around midsummer given the 850T forecast. 24C 850T at times at the peak of the heatwave and yet not one day forecast above 36C in Melbourne. This is clearly due to the higher moisture levels that are expected, both directly due to higher atmospheric water allowing for less heating than dry air and indirectly as a result of convective buildups and likely middle level cloud that should develop with a weak trough over us for most of the period. Isolated showers should develop over the ranges but mainly in the NE of the state and coastal. The north of the state will be very hot with temps exceeding 40C as they receive the hottest and driest air. Very hot but nothing particularly out of the ordinary for the far north and NW in January.
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#1050593 - 30/12/2011 16:28
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Hmm that reminds me a bit of last year mid Janruary where we had a really unstable period where it was rainy but not too heavy.
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#1050775 - 31/12/2011 10:14
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 27/05/2001
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
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Petros - can we keep the new threads at least less than 6 days out thanks. You made this thread for the purpose of discussing upcoming events so leave discussion here till its within the 'likely to happen' period... (ie. Monday)
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#1050895 - 31/12/2011 18:54
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: teckert]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Petros - can we keep the new threads at least less than 6 days out thanks. You made this thread for the purpose of discussing upcoming events so leave discussion here till its within the 'likely to happen' period... (ie. Monday) AT LAST! - Thanks Teckert Now we have a quantified timeline acceptable to the Forum owners. So 6 days it is.
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#1050899 - 31/12/2011 19:07
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 27/05/2001
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
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lol.... cmon mate.... you have been here for 8 years.... its always been about 5-6 days. And I have communicated that to you enough when you wanted this thread started....
Why the sudden issue with it over the last few months? You know just as well as anyone that the models are useless more than about 3 or so days out for an accurate forecast.
Anyways, now that you have this re-jigged into your memory hopefully you dont have to worry about it any longer.
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#1050904 - 31/12/2011 19:22
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: teckert]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Thanks Teckert - equally you "gurus" just dont seem to grasp the concept that many (most?) of the forum followers dont give a toss about what the weather WILL be when its locked in 3 days out What we like is what CAN happen (and comes off more often than you "3 dayers" would like to admit) - THATS what tickles our fancy! We dont have a reputation to loose if we are wrong, we just want to have a grasp of the possibilities "out there", and follow that day by day. For me, I handle the disapointment of what could've-but didnt come off with a look out at the next system to come Another forum that intially promised this aspect was flooded with new members only 18 monhs ago. You are at risk of stiffling the potential of this forum if you insist on posts so timely and technically correct. Just my opinion, and good bye to all if I get banned for saying this. BTW - Happy New Year
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#1050905 - 31/12/2011 19:24
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 27/05/2001
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
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???? What are you on about? You have this thread to talk about upcoming weather longer than 5-6 days out??? No-one is stopping you talking about long term forecasts. Just not on date or event specific threads longer than the 5-6 days, which has been the policy all along. and yer hope you have a good New Years....
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#1051068 - 1/01/2012 15:05
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 20/12/2010
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
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Hi guys For what it's worth from this weather-tech-knowledge deprived storm lover, I get some warped sense of anticipation from challenging myself watching charts etc. from 5, 6, 7 or more days out from a potential event. Got excited with myself one event passed (month ago) and blurted my 'prediction' of the timing of an event and I was horribly wrong. But I'm even though I am still learning, I'm still challenging myself (albeit quietly to myself) what I feel maybe excitedly coming along for Vic.. The 3rd (not so big)(pssst my b'day - so it better be good) and the 7th'ish are my next predictions for some interesting tickle-me-pink weather systems   Happy new year all
Edited by duckweather (1/01/2012 15:09)
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#1051073 - 1/01/2012 15:22
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: duckweather]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Well imo it's not worth trying to predict too much longer then 5-6 days out, models constantly turn and it's extremely hard to predict longer then a few days out accurately, the cool change on Tuesday should bring me some much needed relief from this heat tho.
As for next weekend from the models so far looks like it'll go south before intesifying over the Eastern parts of the state, and looks like a whole week of nice 22-26 temperatures rather then this heat.
Happy new year btw
Edited by TheAnt (1/01/2012 15:23)
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#1051241 - 2/01/2012 10:55
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Oh yeah for sure you need to stay on the lookout but before 3 or so days they can change a lot, so it's just hard a week out.
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#1051261 - 2/01/2012 11:46
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/01/2011
Loc: Taylors Hill
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Happy New Year to all of you. First chance I have had to read the latest in the forums.
I always enjoy reading all of the comments and predictions, whether they eventuate or not.
I have nowhere near the knowledge some of you but I am slowly gaining an insight. Most of that
is thanks to Petros, Thunderunder and Ant, who are always ready to answer a question or give me some tips on looking at models etc. Most of all its fun learning.
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#1051747 - 4/01/2012 11:24
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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The similar scenario continues for next weekend/early week after.. the next chance of storms and some rain. Something to watch also, is the lick of cold air (blue line) that has the potential to splash up near Vic circa next Tuesday. That would re-invigorate the cut-off low shown below....... 
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#1052571 - 6/01/2012 19:25
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: liberator]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Because edits aren't from the original post, sometimes you just change your mind about something.
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#1052581 - 6/01/2012 20:13
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: liberator]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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why not write a reply in word/notepad and then cut n paste when ready? You are spot on, a lengthy post just yesterday made me think of it. But why do I have to?
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#1053286 - 8/01/2012 22:53
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Looks like a major rainfall event could take place next week.
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#1053291 - 8/01/2012 23:07
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 23/01/2011
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
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Looks like a major rainfall event could take place next week. Yes, Ant. All fairly far out and the models only vaguely coinciding but ... ACCESS has (around the 18th) a major trough linking to a low in Bass Strait; CMC indicates (at about the 14th) moisture streaming in from the west from a low in central WA and (presumably) flowing on westwards in the following couple of days; and GFS (again around the 18th) showing a trough from NW into Vic. CMC, in fact, has been going back and forth with its scenario fairly consistently over the past few runs Long way out but there seems some level of convergence of models. Is this what you're looking at?
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#1053292 - 8/01/2012 23:13
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: ThunderBob]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Yep, ofcourse lots of things can change and will change in the next week.
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#1054070 - 10/01/2012 18:57
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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The similar scenario continues for next weekend/early week after.. the next chance of storms and some rain. Something to watch also, is the lick of cold air (blue line) that has the potential to splash up near Vic circa next Tuesday. That would re-invigorate the cut-off low shown below....... Just a reminder, to myself, ignore GFS 8 day pedictions at your peril.... (we are now looking at 2 days of snow in Vic Mid-January!!!
Edited by Petros (10/01/2012 18:58)
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#1055241 - 12/01/2012 18:07
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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It looks like the moisture ex TC Heidi will be pushed into the bight by the high pushing into Vic atm. So in terms of next week (18/1/12) - I'd say our rain prospects now are tied to the possibility of an ECL to crab down our way from NSW..... Heres CMC's view: 
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#1055625 - 13/01/2012 18:30
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Yes lots of moisture around for next week, and will be very warm.
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#1055674 - 13/01/2012 21:17
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Meso7]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/01/2011
Loc: Donvale
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GFS has been progging some nice instability for middle/late next week for a few runs now. We are due for a storm outbreak, so something to keep an eye on. Agree Meso, GFS extended have hinted that unstable/humid conditions return for a rather prolonged period. High pressure systems not at all strong with troughs starting to dip further south again. Nothing record breaking, however a good photo op for you!
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#1056020 - 14/01/2012 18:04
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: duckweather]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Will be very hot and unstable conditions, and it doesn't look like it will end soon. GFS has the red line all the way up past Victoria on Sunday and Monday, ACCESS not even in Victoria, still looks like above average temperatures for much of February.
Edited by TheAnt (14/01/2012 18:07)
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#1058984 - 20/01/2012 22:27
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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There could be some very large rainfall going into next week thats for sure.
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#1059007 - 20/01/2012 23:12
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 11/12/2007
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
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whats the hell of hot day and very cool night now is 16.7 makes me feel warm cloths...
blame cool SE wind over nite then NE day time...
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#1059377 - 21/01/2012 19:14
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Someone please help me with the ACCESS models, Sunday its showing the red line near the antarctic, but on Tuesday there's some very cold air approaching Melbourne. Just a glitch in the system?
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#1059632 - 22/01/2012 09:54
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Completely changed now and looks like some good rain for the east.
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#1060880 - 23/01/2012 18:54
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Wow look at Sunday and Monday on the ACCESS models! Funny because it's normally GFS predicting the overly large rainfall, obviously it will change HEAPS over the next week but something to look out for.
Edited by TheAnt (23/01/2012 18:55)
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#1060993 - 23/01/2012 20:14
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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 Uploaded with ImageShack.usI know early days, but Sunday could be a little interesting. Shall be interesting to see what the models look like at the end of the week.
Edited by thunderunder (23/01/2012 20:16)
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#1061378 - 24/01/2012 08:19
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/01/2011
Loc: Donvale
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GFS & ACCESS continue the same train of thought this morning.
Still a little way off firing a new thread up, but Sun/Mon certainly look like the days where this run of great weather could break.
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#1062179 - 24/01/2012 19:15
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Bulos]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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ACCESS continuing on a good 10-30 mm.
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#1062262 - 24/01/2012 20:07
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Bulos]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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.......Still a little way off firing a new thread up, but Sun/Mon certainly look like....... 5 days out now Bulos NOBODY should critise you from starting a new thread on these possible outcomes. Remember we are doing this for fun, interest and shared learning - not to be "discovered as the next future budding oooba-accurate weather forecaster" hoping to get recognised like a budding beauty model.
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#1063083 - 25/01/2012 10:58
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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So models are still play around with a few different scenarios. Some suggesting a low pressure trough to feed into Vic over the weekend others maybe a cut off low to form in NSW which may touch the far east of the Vic as it travels south east and out to sea.
QLD has a lot of moisture up there to feed the trough, but will the Low forming off WA have an affect, I guess only time will tell.
At this stage it looks like more rain to come for QLD and NSW anyway.
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#1063271 - 25/01/2012 14:28
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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What's Fergus Think ????
Any words from his Throat .
Models are playing " Pick up sticks " every 6 hrs when they have to re evaluate where they went wrong . and try and move forward .
One certainty within the next week , we will get some rain .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1063377 - 25/01/2012 15:46
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Nothing from the Fergus yet, obviously waiting until closer to the event for a more accurate forecast!
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#1063392 - 25/01/2012 15:54
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 2/02/2011
Loc: Melbourne Mordialloc
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so will this moisture make it down into central victoria over the next 7 days from qld?
or is it a different system altogether? are we talking an actual event or just "some" rain
Edited by EFujita5 (25/01/2012 15:55)
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#1063438 - 25/01/2012 16:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: EFujita5]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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Some rain .
Nth Vic , might get a decent Drink , or even far east .
But central and southern will only see fleeting as cold surge comes up to meet it on the far side of the Trough that'll form below the interior Low .
Could get half an inch or up to 2 if your lucky .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1063459 - 25/01/2012 16:29
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: EFujita5]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Sorry Efuita5, should have worded it differently and used "weekend" rather then event.
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#1063468 - 25/01/2012 16:34
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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IMO it'll be any storms will be embeded or before the front flattening into one, for Melbourne could be 5mm could be 30mm, who knows.
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#1063469 - 25/01/2012 16:35
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 2/02/2011
Loc: Melbourne Mordialloc
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Sorry Efuita5, should have worded it differently and used "weekend" rather then event. haha. its ok i actually had to reread your reply like 5 times for me to understand what was going on. i thought to myself "what did i say?!" its cool. i think anything more than a morning of rain could be classed as an event. i feel victoria has been really inactive since christmas day. hoping the traditional first weekend in feb will fire up again
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#1063657 - 25/01/2012 18:58
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: EFujita5]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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VERY dynamic situation for most of Aust from the centreline upwards in the 6 day outlook. SEQ flooding in progress, several cylones likely to form. etc... ....but whats in it for us Vic's??? I say its well time for someone to start a (usually despised) "blanket-thread" to cover the outlook from this Sat and at least the next 4 days afterwards. So many whatifs out there - models all over the shop, if the weak High pressure belt progged to lay under SA-Vic doesnt hold up - then HEAPS of moisture is ready to roll into Vic similar to this time last year. Here's an interesting AccG possibility.... 
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#1064462 - 26/01/2012 19:24
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Dramatic events are unfolding over the pastoral interior of NT/QLD/NSW now and for the next couple of days. Re Vics "out there chances" - in a weeks time we may have another chance of moisture to descend from NSW, the remnants off a WA cyclone to arrive, and a cold air slurp from the southern ocean to all potentially interply DEPENDING on timing. Its still mild La Nina - Vic wont miss out totally, we just might need to be patient...  This is what CMC reckons at its way out far reaches...
Edited by Petros (26/01/2012 19:27)
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#1066203 - 28/01/2012 10:58
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/08/2011
Loc: Traralgon, Victoria
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Probably more appropriate for this thread rather than the current event, but I think still relevant as we're currently distracted by whats closer to home tracking down from NSW.
What role do we all think Cyclone Iggy will play in the next week or so? Any stronger fronts or troughs that can channel it through Vic will have a potential to replicate some of last years weather IMO!
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#1069262 - 31/01/2012 21:19
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Do you mean NE Victoria Petros? What im noticing though is that the cold air line is becoming more frequently near Melbourne, looks to be a few cold fronts in the next 10 days.
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#1069749 - 1/02/2012 20:14
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/01/2011
Loc: Taylors Hill
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Petros, BOM is saying Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the northwest, mainly in the afternoon tomorrow. Not sure how far north west they mean. Nothing predicted that I can see for the Central area. Nothing major to excite this easily excitable Victorian in the next 8 days or so.
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#1069864 - 2/02/2012 00:05
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Katyer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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North west enough that central won't get anything imo Katyer, maybe along the ranges but I highly doubt it.
Looking at Sunday a fairly strong cold front to pass through Victoria, not much rainfall though.
Edited by TheAnt (2/02/2012 00:06)
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#1069926 - 2/02/2012 08:31
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/03/2002
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
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Unfortunately I couldn't work out how to get one picture out of the four day prediction maps that BoM produce, but I am really liking the look of Sundays map. Cut off lows, cyclones forming, Low off shore (SE) 996hpa, cold fronts, rain. BoM Four Day Forecast Maps Ya gotta love the weather???
Edited by Gabby (2/02/2012 08:32)
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#1070282 - 2/02/2012 22:39
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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ACCESS and GFS showing some rain coming in from NE/E Victoria into the weekend, I hope this year doesnt continue too much with the rain on weekend trend...
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#1071181 - 4/02/2012 10:04
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Um, Im probably wrong but is next weekends rain on the ACCESS charts at the moment from an ECL, or just a trough of some sort?
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#1071282 - 4/02/2012 13:42
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Ruckle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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So can you explain to me what an Easterly dip is?
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#1071367 - 4/02/2012 18:35
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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An easterly dip can occur in summer over inland Qld/Nsw and into N Vic when you have sun over the W areas of these states and NE flow from the Pacific crossing the eastern seaboard. It looks like this prog by GFS for later next week.....  Re chances of an ECL forming at the "base of the dip" next weekend, GFS is less keen and AccG has softened the prospects with this revised outcome.....  Mind you this is an exciting prospect for us Gippslanders!
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#1072201 - 6/02/2012 18:23
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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... and 4 days later we have all models agreeing that there will be an easterly dip situation in place by the end of the week which will drag moist NE'ly air into Vic. Where they disagree is whether this can further evolve into a local low pressure system (ECL) over Vic, or if high pressure over Tassie strenghtens and pushes the moisture back up the NSW E coast. GFS has spun 180 deg and now is an ECL believer......  Us in SE Vic will be watching this play out with a lot of interest! I reckon a thread should be started for Thurs - Sun so we can watch it all play out (or dissolve).
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#1072316 - 6/02/2012 21:52
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Checked out the models tonight and it is looking good for later in the week and weekend. Looks like it could be stormy too. I hope this one is a cracker!
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#1072352 - 6/02/2012 23:04
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Shall do Petros. I havent heard him croak for a while.
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#1073929 - 9/02/2012 21:42
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 1/12/2011
Loc: Bendigo, VIC
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Won't hear me knocking GFS. Has about 70-80% strike rate with storms in my experience. That's why I cant understand when people criticize for relying on it for storm forecasting. Today for instance...  And where did storms fire? I know it doesn't always get it right and tends to go a little crazy about a week out, but within a few days it's the best guide you'll get if it's storms you're interested in.
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#1074412 - 10/02/2012 23:05
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Meso7]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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The wz synopitc chart looks interesting for Vic on Wednesday. Although I had a look at some of the models and they dont look all that interesting.
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#1075047 - 12/02/2012 11:13
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Well the hot air line going into late next week and beyond is getting closer then it has the last 2 weeks, its nudging into Victoria at one stage, but I think severe fires are a very slim chance.
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#1075296 - 12/02/2012 17:52
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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GFS, at the end of its outlook from todays run is showing an almost identical easterly system to affect Vic from next Sunday into the middle of next week (my extropolation) as we've just experienced over the last 4 days. BOM outlook for this comming week is cool, so if more of the same the week after its GOODBYE summer. Heres GFS "way out" at the end of its run in 8 days time....  One of these will result in an ECL that produces rain sooner or later - which I think most of us "feel in our bones" the way this summer is panning out.
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#1075421 - 12/02/2012 21:53
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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GFS, at the end of its outlook from todays run is showing an almost identical easterly system to affect Vic from next Sunday into the middle of next week (my extropolation) as we've just experienced over the last 4 days. BOM outlook for this comming week is cool, so if more of the same the week after its GOODBYE summer. Heres GFS "way out" at the end of its run in 8 days time.... One of these will result in an ECL that produces rain sooner or later - which I think most of us "feel in our bones" the way this summer is panning out. Maybe more of a , Hello " Indian " Summer . the Following High behind that System looks to be centred right down near 50 S . So "it" could hang around longer than the Usual 10-14day " weather Reversal " that tends to happen when these types of patterns set in . On top of this I would expected the WA trough to join the Party at some time also . My feeling is that Your Particular ECL maybe focused further Nth ( Wollongong ??? ) , and will only see Far eastern Gippsland strongly effected . But then we are talking a fair way out , ALTHOUGH this is just seasonal TALK .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1075743 - 13/02/2012 15:57
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Looks like Summers last gasps will be on Sunday.
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#1076260 - 14/02/2012 16:21
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Looks like an ECL next Tuesday/Wednesday? Mainly affecting NSW but parts of Eastern and North Eastern Vic aswell.
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#1076340 - 14/02/2012 20:34
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Thanks for the heads up TheAnt (although I reckon you have been a contributor long enough to start backing up your progs with a reference source [eg. AccG reckons that....]). Outside of Ants AccG scenario for early next week, the general easterly dip scenario establishing itself over Vic this weekend is not generally supported by all models. Taking the mid prog (between extremes) - heres EC's outlook..... 
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#1076710 - 15/02/2012 23:15
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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Quote from my post above .
" So "it" could hang around longer than the Usual 10-14day " weather Reversal " that tends to happen when these types of patterns set in .
On top of this I would expected the WA trough to join the Party at some time also . "
i presume this second injection will be your ECL culprit . The First Trough will be TOO south reaching as hinted in my High placement well south statement . It seems the second maybe a little far Nth for a Bass Strait genesis . . ?
I think i should look at models before i post . LOL
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1077642 - 18/02/2012 20:44
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Hmm, ACCESS and GFS (cant see other models) hinting at a NE (?) infeed into SA later next week which will then at some stage move into Victoria, possibly in combination with a cold front? Petros/Ruckle/Most of you probably know what it means.
Edited by TheAnt (18/02/2012 20:48)
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#1077683 - 18/02/2012 22:32
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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SO, after the top 2 paragrahs are absorbed by a dummy like me (this may take a re-readtomorrow morning , wrong or right, I'm not gunna disagree with you! Petros , To try and explain myself , I was responding to your questioning of the ECL possibility's . I originally discussed that I reckon this Trough dominated weather was here for alot longer than it usually lasts . ( 10-14 is the Norm , and Central / Nth and West Vic , tends to see there usual weather run in Reverse . ) This pattern ( which seems to be The La Nina's peak early next Month ) may see us Have an indian Summer well into Autumn , I can't see this Easterly dominated Troughyness being broken other than a couple of slight changes till mid - late March. It might only take one or two NW infeed ( not far from average for Early Autumn , be it tail end of Kimberley/ Broome TC or just the first event of IOD [ think Hail storm 2010 ] proceeding the First Strong fronts , to see The Murray join the Darling in Flood this year . This next few weeks could provide the Primer for whenever we see a Significant NW infeed/ infeeds . From what I can see , The IOD is a fair chance to go strong negative this Autumn , add this to the Evaporative load that Lake Eyre and Menindee Region will provide for Pre Frontal Moisture . The Trough the other day extended too Far south ( for ECL genesis ) as a result of the High and the convergence south west corner ( where a Front usually meets the Trough ) being Too far south also . This second one Tomorrow seems to have most of its energy Too far Nth , in the Trough , which is probably seeded to from outflow from WA's Trough . So Mid coast of NSW will see the worst that this can deliver .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1078186 - 19/02/2012 22:25
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Well Petros look at ACCESS and GFS latests runs, disagreements as to where the rain will come from, but definetly rain.
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#1078301 - 20/02/2012 06:28
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Moderator
Registered: 18/01/2003
Loc: Pakenham Victoria's Storm Capi...
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Had to laugh at the channel 7 news last night. ( Sydney one) Had us down for a 38c this coming Sunday. I wish
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#1078582 - 20/02/2012 17:58
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Lindsay Knowles]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Heard Terry Ryan mooting "quite useful" rain to come for Vic into next weekend. Looks like the high pressure system building for Vic atm will advect moist air from the interior (rather than the usual dry fire feeding winds more typical of this time of the year) as it departs Saturday night. So it looks like a thundery saturday evening, with a decent (cold air'wise) cold front to intrude into the humid airmass over Vic towards Sunday evening. Terry says "useful rain" - Petros says "east coast low". Could this be the drenching event most of us think is lurking out there in the wings? GFS's latest (an exciting setup): 
Edited by Michael Bath (24/02/2012 10:34)
Edit Reason: please stop having a go at moderators
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#1078589 - 20/02/2012 18:08
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Petros im not 100% on this but it doesn't look to me like an ECL, from what I can see as you mention the high advects the moisture into Victoria (also assisted by an inland trough from SA that will deepen and go into Victoria, before a nice mass of cold air comes in, depending on when this cold front comes there could be a lot of different scenarios.
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#1078670 - 20/02/2012 21:26
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Mind you ACCESS now not confident in Saturday producing anything at all for all of Victoria.
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#1078674 - 20/02/2012 21:30
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Yep I have bean keeping a keen eye on the models for the last 24 hours.
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#1078700 - 20/02/2012 22:13
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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Heard Terry Ryan mooting "quite useful" rain to come for Vic into next weekend. Looks like the high pressure system building for Vic atm will advect moist air from the interior (rather than the usual dry fire feeding winds more typical of this time of the year) as it departs Saturday night. So it looks like a thundery saturday evening, with a decent (cold air'wise) cold front to intrude into the humid airmass over Vic towards Sunday evening. Terry says "useful rain" - Petros says "east coast low". Could this be the drenching event most of us think is lurking out there in the wings? GFS's latest (an exciting setup): [edit] - I invite an avid weather follower to start a new thread for Vic on this pending event (don’t worry, I’m not setting anyone up, its now in “legal” outlook range according to the interstate moderators). I think your right that this System will deliver usefull totals , as For ECL i'm not convinced . Regardless , it will be another slower moving Trough/front ??? system . Probably the system your thinking of / praying for ; will be more of a northern country Vic episode . And will be near stationary low that will deepen from the North . Could be a month or two until you see a " classic " Vic (below 36' parallel ) ECL .... So i think GFS is on this . If you note the cut -off that is to form SW of WA and well nth of the Prevailing Roaring Forty Westerlies . Well this system was first picked up by GFS , then EC and then this morning Access . So if they get that right and it gathers momentum draws down from the WA trough and combines with the next surge in frontal activity come Sunday then its going to be on statewide . But that other strong system /scenario is out there , its just waiting for the right opportunity . Watch for a Blocking high to sit well below the bight around 50 deg S or even lower !!!!!
Edited by Southern Oracle (20/02/2012 22:15)
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1079111 - 21/02/2012 16:01
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Looks like theres a cool change on Sunday without any rain (according to ACCESS) this has no impact on rainfall on Monday but could impact on storm development?
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#1079270 - 21/02/2012 18:46
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Meso7]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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What seems to have happened to me is the formation of a large ECL off NSW central coast right now/tonight. This is progged to move rapidly off to NZ taking the potential moisture that Vic "could have got" this weekend along with it. Those damned ECL's are buggers of things to predict.  That leaves Vic with the same northerly/NE air flow this weekend, but with dry air instead. So lets enjoy a sunny "last?" hot sunny weekend before grizzling about trying to get the long grass dry enough to mow the weekend after! Interestingly, GFS still is the "wetest" model for the days after the weekend coming. The formation of todays ECL off NSW, although not a Vic event confirms the volitility of this late summer/autumn pattern in SE Aus with LaNinas last gasp, and an abundance of moisture infeeds to Vic continuing.
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#1079275 - 21/02/2012 18:54
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Petros the sypnotic harts (and Nine news ) are saying that in an inland trough currently over around Queensland, NSW etc is the thing feeding the moisture, the low of the coast of NSW shouldn't affect it too much I think, but yeah I think this is probably going to be one of the last high 20s low to mid 30 runs for a few days going into Autumn.
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#1079624 - 22/02/2012 15:37
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Could someone please start a thread for upcoming system, lots to disguss and you know Fergus might even have something to say later in the week.
If I head it up, it would go something like this "Bloody warm sweaty weekend coming up, Storms and showers followed by a front on Monday that will then bring rain and I anticipate it to become bloody wet". So best me not do it.
Edited by thunderunder (22/02/2012 15:39)
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#1079634 - 22/02/2012 16:03
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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I was suprised by ACCESS latests run, nothing really for central Saturday, Sunday (storms around the ranges usual etc) and the front looked quite weak, but as it goes through Victoria on Monday it unleashes a widespread 30-40mm. Also if no one else does i'll start the next thread with the nightly model runs if thats ok with you guys.
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#1079704 - 22/02/2012 19:21
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Holy moly ACCESS... look at those rainfall totals, im not sure if people want THAT to come off.
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#1079725 - 22/02/2012 20:41
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Models are starting to look really interesting tonight. Tuesday looking HOT to TROT.
No thread yet.....
You all dont really want me to head one up do you? Unless your in for a cackle.
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#1080198 - 24/02/2012 02:24
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 2/11/2009
Loc: Hattonvale
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gfs this evening has forecasting a monster upper low or something coming up from the south with very strong winds over victoria for the end of feb or early march. if that comes off there will be problems especially with some saturation in the ground after this week
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#1080512 - 24/02/2012 19:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Yeah Petros noticed that, possible ECL? only GFS are really onto anything in Victoria.
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#1082546 - 28/02/2012 22:00
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Doubt it Petros, none of the runs are putting it nearly that far south, sorry im not the expert you're looking for but neither GFS, Access are saying anything big for Victoria apart from the far north over the next week, only interesting event is another rain event which could put another 15-30mm in parts of the state.
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#1082558 - 28/02/2012 22:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Todays runs had cooled off re rain coming into Vic but this evenings run is a bit more south. Latest GFS run Petros for 72 hours (there is more higher rainfall up to 180 hrs). My computor keeps getting hot, and I had saved this in my pictures.  Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Edited by thunderunder (28/02/2012 22:27)
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#1082562 - 28/02/2012 22:25
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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I think you maybe onto something Petros , but i beleive the WA Trough might have something to say in this regard . Its going to be a armwrestle of sorts for this Troughs attaction , unfortunatley for our Sydney -Nowra ( flood doomsayers ) it looks like the Cetral NSW Surface Low that was going to drag off alot of this Moisture into the Lower Tasman has got some competition from the West , and Depending on ridgeing Direct South Central Vic could win ( though many will say lose - with potential metro Flooding ) and then Tassie and maybe even Gippsland . But it seems immeasurable so Even I won't back any scenario going forward , All i can see is that someone is going to get extremely wet or everyone will get reasonably wet . But a Guarantee that eventually large Portions of SE SA will get well waterlogged .........
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1082568 - 28/02/2012 22:36
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Aaaah, wish I had read SO's before I posted my silly picture, wasn't sure what Petro's was referring to.
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#1085495 - 5/03/2012 10:26
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Things]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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There is a couple things of interest currently from ACCESSG and GFS, both are going for ECLs which should atleast effect far eastern Victoria, GFS has a couple of cyclones in the West, don't know whether or not the remanants will effect Victoria yet.
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#1086504 - 7/03/2012 11:53
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Petros - have you gone on strike to start threads? I like the way you word up and explain future weather coming.
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#1086704 - 7/03/2012 19:27
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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I don't mind if anyone starts the thread, but looking at next week Wednesday-Thursday possibly Friday look pretty wet..
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#1087110 - 8/03/2012 16:25
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Meso7]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Well the worst instability is in NE/N/E Victoria. However ACCESS is predicting some weird stuff...
Edited by TheAnt (8/03/2012 16:26)
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#1087121 - 8/03/2012 17:24
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Just had a look at latest GFS run at 00z run today. Only one run at this stage, but targeting North East for next week, with some high rainfall. I will be keeping a close watch.
Ant what do you mean by weird stuff?
Edited by thunderunder (8/03/2012 17:28)
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#1087186 - 8/03/2012 22:27
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Not really sure how to explain it TU, ACCESS may have downgraded the models, but BSCH are now going for potentially severe storms across a decent chunk of Victoria.
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#1087393 - 9/03/2012 18:55
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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As for ACCESS they have downgraded this system quite a bit, but the next one following looks to be an infeed event which will then mix with possibly a cold front which also has a purple line in it, Petros/Ruckle/anyone explain that to me?
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#1087415 - 9/03/2012 20:29
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Ruckle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Interesting Ruckle, does it hang around the bottom of the chart in winter often? I too think that if the tropical infeed mixes with one of those fronts theres potential for some very heavy rain.
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#1087483 - 10/03/2012 08:59
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 13/08/2003
Loc: katoomba now Albury
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Interesting Ruckle, does it hang around the bottom of the chart in winter often? I too think that if the tropical infeed mixes with one of those fronts theres potential for some very heavy rain. Very unusual to have the purple line this far north for this time of the year.I see the temps in the antartica have been running well below average for a while now.The next 3 mths will be very interesting with the cold fronts to come through having a bit more potency.
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#1087516 - 10/03/2012 10:57
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Ruckle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Can't see 16 day GFS so am wondering what will happen after Saturday at the moment, that will definetly prompt flooding if it comes off.
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#1087518 - 10/03/2012 11:07
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Ruckle]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/03/2002
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
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I should point out it will be less "fun"if it does for folks N of the divide. Absolutely Ruckle! In no way do I want to see flooding like we have had. We however are looking at the weather from a purely meteorological point of view. The thought of what damage any more rain might do is horrifying. It is very hard to word our musings about coming weather in a way that does not give the impression we are in any way excited about the prospect of flooding rains and the consequences it brings. I know we all try very hard to discuss coming weather from a purely scientific perspective. The human cost is another thing entirely.
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#1087626 - 10/03/2012 19:04
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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GFS really stalling it out.
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#1087871 - 11/03/2012 17:46
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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There is so much weather for Vic in this last hurrah of the "little LaNina" that its hard to itemize events to come. Very much the "wicked onslaught" (my words) that our intrepid predictor AV has been mooting for weeks - and has come to play, on other forums (but he is a member here too). Ignoring the potential for a storm mid next week, and the well discussed potention rain event for next weekend,.... "way out there" AccG shows this in the far outlook. Here's what "I'm talkin about"... 
Edited by Petros (11/03/2012 17:48)
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#1087873 - 11/03/2012 17:50
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Petros if you have Pro don't you have GFS 16 days out? Whats that predicting?
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#1087892 - 11/03/2012 18:34
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Their latest while not on Victorias doorstep is quite scary..A line that could basically cross ALL of Australia.
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#1087904 - 11/03/2012 18:53
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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Yes , BOM and others have less late this coming week .
But saying that , all have some " we're Surrounded " forecast for Early/ Middle the following week . With an ECL to our East ( Possible Retrograde ) , Trough to our N , and another Trough/Cut Off / Frontal Connection to our WNW ...........
Of course we will be sandwiched in the Middle of this in a Thin Ridge / double yoking High . So when and if it gets to that , we can takes odds to ehich of the Three will be Nth Vic's Downfall..... sorry Rainfall ......
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1087934 - 11/03/2012 21:21
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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"SO" can't believe I am saying "NO MORE RAIN PLEASE" after a ten year drought.
For anyone who managed to see the Weekly Times last Wedndsday it gave a really good account of how much rain fell in Victoria and the impact it has had.
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#1087937 - 11/03/2012 21:41
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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Personally , I reckon your not going to see anything remotely like you've just witnessed in an Extremely Long Time . But its not to say that the Usual suspects in the NE , and more so the N Central and NW is due for something .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1088008 - 12/03/2012 09:29
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Saw the ACCESS models this morning, all lining up next Wednesday, then I see the 15-20 mm and im sure most (mostly NE/E/N) will be thankful that it's not major.
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#1088147 - 12/03/2012 18:32
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Latest AccG is quite scary for Gippsland residents one would think..
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#1088466 - 13/03/2012 18:51
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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ECL predicted by ACCG for Monday.
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#1088948 - 14/03/2012 16:40
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Now GFS are going for some cold air right up to Victoria next Thursday, interesting times ahead next week or two!
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#1088953 - 14/03/2012 16:48
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Gabby think you've got the threads confused haha.
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#1088954 - 14/03/2012 16:48
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/03/2002
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
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#1091129 - 17/03/2012 16:56
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Not sure Gabby but check out GFS!! Cold air line up to Melbourne!
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#1091657 - 18/03/2012 09:44
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Even further up now...going to be VERY cold, first outbreak since early January.
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#1093739 - 20/03/2012 20:14
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/08/2011
Loc: Traralgon, Victoria
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Looks like some pretty frigid air to hover us for the next week or so following tomorrows rain band. I think its fair to say today was our last warm day of the season. Looking longer term, a large high seems to be calling Victoria home from next Tuesday afternoon onwards before the suggestion of trough feature establishes over inland NSW and influences NE Victoria right at the end of the models forecast period (Friday 30 March) (as depicted by ACCESSG below): 
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#1093747 - 20/03/2012 20:19
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Peng_25]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Wonder what GFS is saying that far out and beyond.
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#1094479 - 21/03/2012 22:05
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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After Friday there could be an interesting build up ahead, I don't have models that far out but there might be an event or two lurking around...
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#1094519 - 21/03/2012 23:41
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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#1095460 - 24/03/2012 20:44
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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An interesting week ahead with 1 or two events developing...Unsure about storm chances
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#1095470 - 24/03/2012 21:49
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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I know your meant to take the 28 day rainfall with a grain of salt but...That's looking like a lot of likely rain.
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#1095738 - 25/03/2012 21:03
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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That on the sypnotic becomes a cold front which should hit on Sunday. Wonder what the storm chances are? BOM aren't going for it, and BSCH are just for parts of Victoria.
Edited by TheAnt (25/03/2012 21:03)
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#1096773 - 30/03/2012 14:31
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Maybe a chance of a thunderstorm on Sunday 1st in the NorthEast. I am no expert on the in and outs of what triggers them. But BOM suggesting a chance for the North East and it is showing up on the stormcast on BSCH. So might be of intersest to the stormchasers and watchers.
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#1097249 - 1/04/2012 19:42
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Southern Oracles post in the other thread about Easter Monday system might be a doozy looks pretty good at the moment...
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#1097638 - 3/04/2012 18:57
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 23/01/2011
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
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Yep, by Tues/Wed post Easter, we look to have a wintery system on our doorstep. Well thanks Petros I'm coming down home to Gippy for a one week break Easter Friday to the next Saturday and you have to tell me that! I guess it'll be a change from the weather here, NW of Alice. Nothing under max 30C for weeks and the past few days 39+ (40.3C today) Not much if any rain past few weeks. Talk to you (on the forum) when I'm home. Cheers, Bob
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#1097653 - 3/04/2012 20:04
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: ThunderBob]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Friday looks like a possible storm day.
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#1097660 - 3/04/2012 20:54
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: ThunderBob]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 23/01/2011
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
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Yep, by Tues/Wed post Easter, we look to have a wintery system on our doorstep. (40.3C today) Actually, 41.3C
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#1097680 - 3/04/2012 21:58
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: ThunderBob]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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BSCH's timing is sometimes off.... Tuesday and Wednesday Lifted Index levels look pretty darn high...
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#1097792 - 4/04/2012 18:36
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Can someone please explain what GFS is hinting at next week?
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#1097826 - 4/04/2012 22:19
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Is it a cut off low or something?
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#1097834 - 4/04/2012 23:59
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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Yeah GFS , Drunk with Conviction ?????
A Cut Off forming and stalling in the Bight Wednesday onwards , and just to be over the Top GFS has it retrograding NW ward ...????????
It's been a Weird pattern this week that looks set to turn rediculous next week . ?
As for my call for Monday , it was always gonna be something significant to "Back" Bookend this extremely large LWT that has skimmed below us all this week .
Be it something Flying up from Deep South , or something building from the Interior or NW . !
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1097857 - 5/04/2012 09:09
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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GFS finally realised how stupid theres was, and matched it pretty much with the BOM. Not only to mention that SO, but it generating widespread storms aswell?
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#1098773 - 10/04/2012 18:23
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Well next week just going by the BOM forecasts its back to same weather as last week... so Summers not had its last gasp just yet by the looks of things. Also looks like a trough should settle on the east coast next week, could bring some storms later?
Edited by TheAnt (10/04/2012 18:31)
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#1099729 - 16/04/2012 12:41
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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CMC look a little excited for Friday. Any thoughts?  Uploaded with ImageShack.usOOps sorry already a thread going. Anyway will disguss in other thread.
Edited by thunderunder (16/04/2012 12:46)
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#1100164 - 18/04/2012 23:36
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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So models are all differing for next week. Could be bugger all in rainfall or it may get interesting. GFS run tonight, could be something to keep a watch on.  Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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#1100186 - 19/04/2012 08:31
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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and GFS has gone com-ple-tely different. Now they have a huge cold burst on Monday, followed by a cut-off? or ECL developing in eastern Victoria.
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#1100204 - 19/04/2012 10:19
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/01/2011
Loc: Taylors Hill
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Interesting with differing forecasts and models and confusing if you take much notice.
BOM says possible thunderstorms with the Tullamarine forecast, but on forecast explorer it has them further north and storm tracker has none for near us. So where are they likely to develop if at all?
Look at the 7 day forecast on here and for Wednesday it says "possible shower" 10-20mm ??? from a "possible shower"??? I have noticed the forecast on WZ, especially the 48 hr can often change completely. It now says around 3pm "intermittent rain" for our area. Really ??? rain or showers, make up your mind. There is no way I can go by their forecasts most days.
I thought they got their info from BOM, or even so, don't they have access to the same weather predicting forecasting techniques as BOM ? Very confusing. I find most of you on here predict far better than WZ. Also if you want to check anything further than national with charts it wants you to upgrade. What a great service.
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#1100224 - 19/04/2012 12:00
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Katyer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Katyer - Mmmm, from my experience I find the BOM to be fairly acurate on the morning of each day.
Most of the farmers around here always seem to know what is in the horizon and they usually listen to the weather on the ABC radio.
I personnally like to look at the models and then get confused but eventually they seem to all come together.
The more knowlable around here have a better understanding of which models are more accurate for different systems, time of the year etc. The most obvious is anything a week out is pretty unreliable but sometimes they can be a warning of things to come if they keep showing simialar outcomes with each run as the days tick over.
Edited by thunderunder (19/04/2012 12:00)
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#1100225 - 19/04/2012 12:04
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Katyer I recommend you look at the central area forecast district on the BOM site to give you a general idea of whats happening, then after learning what it means its easier to understand the weather situation.
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#1100228 - 19/04/2012 12:14
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/01/2011
Loc: Taylors Hill
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Yes, I usually stick with BOM and their weather & wave maps and forecast explorer and usually I find them pretty good. It is specifically the forecast from WZ that I am referring to and its 48 hr forecast which I am finding to be unreliable. Katyer - Mmmm, from my experience I find the BOM to be fairly acurate on the morning of each day.
Most of the farmers around here always seem to know what is in the horizon and they usually listen to the weather on the ABC radio.
I personnally like to look at the models and then get confused but eventually they seem to all come together.
The more knowlable around here have a better understanding of which models are more accurate for different systems, time of the year etc. The most obvious is anything a week out is pretty unreliable but sometimes they can be a warning of things to come if they keep showing simialar outcomes with each run as the days tick over.
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#1100229 - 19/04/2012 12:16
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/01/2011
Loc: Taylors Hill
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Yes Ant, that's what I have been doing for a long time now, but I decided to give WZ forecast a go as well, as I thought it may be a little more detailed, but it is only confusing me, so I will now stick with BOM and the Storm Forecaster you recommended ages ago. Katyer I recommend you look at the central area forecast district on the BOM site to give you a general idea of whats happening, then after learning what it means its easier to understand the weather situation.
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#1100231 - 19/04/2012 12:22
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Katyer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/01/2011
Loc: Taylors Hill
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On a positive note I do like the images on here for the satellite and radar, even with my basic membership that is not WZ Pro, I find I can get enough info.
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#1101341 - 25/04/2012 22:50
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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May is the historical Home of the Tasman ECL .!
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1101477 - 26/04/2012 20:42
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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So models are all differing for next week. Could be bugger all in rainfall or it may get interesting.
GFS run tonight, could be something to keep a watch on.
That was for today...GFS a week ago predicting 60-80mm...lol. Anyway remind me what an easterly dip is again Petros? GFS and ACCESSG look strikingly similair for next week on Wednesday and into the future.
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#1101925 - 29/04/2012 11:44
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Gabby]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 14/03/2010
Loc: Ravenswood QLD/ Melbourne CBD
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The next cold front comes through on tuesday, will we see the usual 15 degree max and a passing storm or two?
_________________________
Ravenswood is a hole...In fact if there wasn't a hole there wouldn't be a Ravenswood!
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#1101948 - 29/04/2012 14:30
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: dawoodman]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Doubt any storms will happen on Tuesday.
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#1101985 - 29/04/2012 20:49
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: travelling East coast of OZ
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looking interesting down south petros from the 2nd - 7th may bom access interactive indicating a unified and combined upper, mid and surface low over vic, followed by a strong high pressure cell following and a strong surface low following that ,in south west wa cold ,wet and snow?? anyway ACCESS presents this as a strong feature ATM UPPER LOW , CLOSED..OVER VIC FOR 3 DAYS THURS, FRI, SATURDAY http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+Viewsigns of early winter.?? autumn came early maybe winter early as well?
Edited by crikey (29/04/2012 20:51)
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#1101989 - 29/04/2012 21:25
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: crikey]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Petros that looks like last weeks set up of a cut off low?
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#1102281 - 1/05/2012 22:19
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Petros that looks like last weeks set up of a cut off low? Last weeks would up as it left us in the Tasman. This one could be stationary, hence my excitment in the now open thread.
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#1102760 - 4/05/2012 21:52
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Looking way out, the departure of the large high (an early high latitude winter jobby) could bring a lot of moisture into inland Qld and the potential formation of an easterly dip.
Way out there, but looks plausible and fits with late April easterly setups that often arrive down in our parts.
[edit] - "way out there" meaning the weekend after this. The models are good, even from so far back, this is a likely (near miss) outcome....  Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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#1102839 - 5/05/2012 17:57
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Yet ANOTHER cut off low predicted by ACCESS? Is it meant to be that common at this time of year?
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#1104154 - 14/05/2012 17:49
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/11/2011
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
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Maybe not for the next 8 Petros, but certainly straight after that there seems to be a huge cold burst coming, probably will be the biggest snow event from the year from the models just looking at it.
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#1104180 - 14/05/2012 22:18
Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come
[Re: TheAnt]
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Cloud Gazer
Registered: 9/05/2012
Loc: Inverloch, VIC
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I hope you are right TheAnt. Both EC and GFS are showing something brewing in the southern ocean next week, however the timing is inconsistent between the models. Lets hope for something good!
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26566 Members
31 Forums
21099 Topics
1137302 Posts
Max Online: 2925 @ 2/02/2011 22:23
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so I am really hoping there will be some t-storms near by that I can chase and cool off underneath of. I guess we just have to wait and see how things pan out etc
apocalypse approaching when the max is 32 degrees lower then the minimum. lol
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