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#1017815 - 08/10/2011 08:31 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: Max Record]
rstewart84 Offline
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Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Quote:
How about sticking your neck out and predicting which parts of Australia will get rain, and how much and when. And what do you think the temperatures will do?


If you predicted which parts of Australia will get rain and how much of it surly bond you would get your head bitten off here in SA we have had enough of getting rain and would rather it go back to a normal warm-hot summer with a few cool days in between

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#1017946 - 08/10/2011 12:10 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: rstewart84]
ColdsnapIII Offline
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Registered: 19/01/2007
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Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Well, I'm thrilled with the very damp conditions here since the start of September, particular given the +ve IOD which usually spells doom and gloom coming into summer.

We are consolidating on the extreme wet of last year. Almost all the major dams in Victoria are more than 75% full and Lake Eildon and Eppalock are full, Thomson is now over 50%. The summer bushfire season is not looking too bad for another year as there is a lot of greenery around atm that will last through most of summer and the forest and grasslands are saturated with some paddocks around the place quite heavily flooded.

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#1017969 - 08/10/2011 13:13 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: ColdsnapIII]
_Johnno_ Offline
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The rain isnt widespread Coldsnap just cos its been raining your area the past 10 days on and off.. Some parts of Western Victoria have had there driest September on record.. I bet you wouldn't be saying what you are if the roles were reversed (That area having a good September and your area having the driest September on record) Alot of luck involved in your area getting good rains the past 10 days... On the contrey some parts of Victoria are looking at one of there worst fire seasons on record if they don't get any decent Spring rain soon.


Edited by _Johnno_ (08/10/2011 13:23)
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#1017973 - 08/10/2011 13:18 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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That rain that fell last week wasn't from your traditional NW cloudbands with widespread rain and storms that SE Australia and more particuly Victoria should be getting this time of the Year for Spring it was from a fairly narrow line/band of storms that developed over your area and trailed over your area for few hours without moving much which caused all that rainfall.. alot of luck involved in that plain and simple! While many other areas missed out.. And No that wasn't my area we copped alot of rain here too but unlike you I'm not thinking of just my area and looking at the main picture.


Edited by _Johnno_ (08/10/2011 13:21)
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#1018096 - 08/10/2011 19:08 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: rstewart84]
RV Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2006
Posts: 985
Loc: Geranium, Home of Virga
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
Quote:
How about sticking your neck out and predicting which parts of Australia will get rain, and how much and when. And what do you think the temperatures will do?


If you predicted which parts of Australia will get rain and how much of it surly bond you would get your head bitten off here in SA we have had enough of getting rain and would rather it go back to a normal warm-hot summer with a few cool days in between


Speak for yourself RS not SA in general regarding rainfall. The rain last summer was a pain for some but it has helped lots too. Some of SA just went through an average or below average winter and without the summer rains the crops would be struggling. also think of the pastoralists that now have feed for the next 12 month due to the wet summer.

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#1018152 - 09/10/2011 00:44 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
That rain that fell last week wasn't from your traditional NW cloudbands with widespread rain and storms that SE Australia and more particuly Victoria should be getting this time of the Year for Spring it was from a fairly narrow line/band of storms that developed over your area and trailed over your area for few hours without moving much which caused all that rainfall.. alot of luck involved in that plain and simple! While many other areas missed out.. And No that wasn't my area we copped alot of rain here too but unlike you I'm not thinking of just my area and looking at the main picture.


Tomorrow , and or the next week of SW fronts should alleviate any issues with "spread " of rainfall in Vic . Lets not forget that Spring is usually full of really windy days and most of them extremely dry NW , pre frontal winds .

PS , please inform me of these fire danger regions , and if they are really tinder dry and full of " fuel " please tell me why that is so .....

It' s just a cycle ..... a large majority of the Australian Flora , thrives on Fires' to " sow their seeds !!! As long as " nuffy's don't light 'em , then let it burn . If your in a fire corridor then be prepared . ( insert apologies to people mentally scarred from what is historically natural.... ) :-)


Edited by Southern Oracle (09/10/2011 00:46)
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#1018490 - 10/10/2011 18:11 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: S .O.]
_Johnno_ Offline
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From Elders updated Today..

The rainfall outlook for the remainder of spring and summer is broadly consistent with that of recent months, while we now have concrete data showing we are moving into a true La Nina event. Sea surface temperature anomalies and temperature anomalies at depth through the equatorial Pacific are all meeting La Nina thresholds. Sea temperatures at depth were more than 5 degrees celsius below average at the end of September, which is a significant La Nina type anomaly. The NINO3.4 index, which is a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies, is also meeting La Nina type levels, with current values going past the required La Nina threshold of -0.5. For a La Nina to be declared by most weather agencies, we need this NINO3.4 value to be held be near or more negative than this -0.5 value for at least 3 months. We are now up to 2 months at or past this level and with no signs of any major changes in the next month, it is likely that most weather agencies worldwide will declare this as a La Nina event. Other data showing us to be in the midst of a developing La Nina pattern is the Southern Oscillation Index, which is a measure of the pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin (typically lower than usual pressure in Darwin and higher than usual pressure over Tahiti). Consecutive months of +6 values on the SOI are an indicator of La Nina conditions. Having two consecutive months above this +6 value has a strong correlation with above average rainfall over eastern Australia during spring and summer, particularly over Queensland. The August value of the SOI was 2.1 and then increased to 11.7 for September. It is likely that our October value will come in above this +6 threshold, with the value for the first week of October holding above 10. This creates a strong likelihood of above average rainfall through many parts of northeastern Australia during the month of October. In fact, with the developing La Nina pattern, well above median rainfall would be likely through both Q4 and Q1 for northeastern Australia, which is reflected in the long-range modelling. There will be flooding risks for northeastern Australia during spring and summer with this La Nina pattern, although there are some factors that mean the risk is not quite as high as last year. Firstly, the La Nina indicators such as NINO3.4 and the SOI are still well short of the levels seen at the same time last year, meaning the enhanced atmospheric circulation across the Pacific (the Walker Circulation) is unlikely to be as strong through this coming spring and summer. This reduces the risk of flooding being as widespread across eastern Australia, but for northeastern Australia it is the wet season, so above average rainfall at this time of year can often mean flooding. Above median rainfall is not as likely for southeastern Australia through spring and summer, with nearer to median conditions favoured. We currently have a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is correlated with below average rainfall for many of the southeastern states. However, the developing La Nina pattern should conteract this to some degree through Q4 and Q1. This positive phase of the IOD is in stark contrast to the strong negative phase of the IOD seen at this time last year. This negative IOD played a significant role in producing heavy rainfall over eastern Australia last spring, especially when combined with the very strong La Nina event that was also in operation. In short, it is likely that northeastern Australia will see above median rainfall this spring and summer due to La Nina type conditions now being entrenched across the equatorial Pacific. It is worth qualifying that there are some differences in the climate drivers compared with last year, so while the risk of flooding remains, it is not expected to be quite as widespread or as extreme as seen last spring and summer. The correlation between La Nina and above average rainfall does decline for southern capitals, especially as you head west, so closer to median values are favoured for these areas


Issued 10 Oct 2011
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#1018554 - 10/10/2011 21:50 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Johnno , Thanks for the update .
Nothings really changed in that bulletin , and seems to echo Dr Watkins analysis the other day .

Was wondering where in Vic is " Tinder dry " , this isn't me trying to be smart . I'm genuinely intrigued ?

As for the IOD and its weak positive .
I believe ( IMHO ) that this is crumbling as we speak . The atmosphere is changing and within the next two weeks the IOD will have lost its influence , adding to this the SDP ( Subtropical DiPole ) will re establish an influence .
Also of note is the reference to "not likely " being above MEDIAN rainfall , as the +ve IOD "correlates" to below AVERAGE rainfall for the SE .
The IOD has/ is losing its influence , but we are still close to a month behind in the classical seasons timeline . Owing to this I see an above average Oct-Nov period after which will continue to be slightly above average . Now I'm not calling floods , but I see this as much more likely scenario than a typical drying trend to start fears of a Bushfire season with extra fuel being available . We will see a drying trend of sorts for atleast half to a full month at some stage ( and hopefully this coincides with the summer holidays so all and sundry can enjoy some sun ) . Shortly after this fleeting summer feel a strong Nina will have some influence this far sth . Be it a number of weaker incursions of Tropical influence or a one off strong hit from say an ex-cyclone . This will be a strongish Nina , just not like last years " record breaking one . A close third to fifth in recent times .

The last sentence tends to contradict ( a little ) of what is highlighted .
" The correlation between La Nina and above average rainfall does decline for southern capitals, especially as you head west, SO CLOSER TO MEDIAN VALUES are favoured for these areas . "
This is a reference to these being close to, but actually above median , and that would also hint at covering atleast two thirds of Victoria ....

Look forward to how this plays out .




Edited by Southern Oracle (10/10/2011 21:52)
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#1020866 - 15/10/2011 15:39 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
The rain isnt widespread Coldsnap just cos its been raining your area the past 10 days on and off.. Some parts of Western Victoria have had there driest September on record.. I bet you wouldn't be saying what you are if the roles were reversed (That area having a good September and your area having the driest September on record) Alot of luck involved in your area getting good rains the past 10 days... On the contrey some parts of Victoria are looking at one of there worst fire seasons on record if they don't get any decent Spring rain soon.


Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
That rain that fell last week wasn't from your traditional NW cloudbands with widespread rain and storms that SE Australia and more particuly Victoria should be getting this time of the Year for Spring it was from a fairly narrow line/band of storms that developed over your area and trailed over your area for few hours without moving much which caused all that rainfall.. alot of luck involved in that plain and simple! While many other areas missed out.. And No that wasn't my area we copped alot of rain here too but unlike you I'm not thinking of just my area and looking at the main picture.




Edited by ColdsnapIII (15/10/2011 15:42)

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#1020892 - 15/10/2011 15:49 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: ColdsnapIII]
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
The rain isnt widespread Coldsnap just cos its been raining your area the past 10 days on and off.. Some parts of Western Victoria have had there driest September on record.. I bet you wouldn't be saying what you are if the roles were reversed (That area having a good September and your area having the driest September on record) Alot of luck involved in your area getting good rains the past 10 days... On the contrey some parts of Victoria are looking at one of there worst fire seasons on record if they don't get any decent Spring rain soon.


Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
That rain that fell last week wasn't from your traditional NW cloudbands with widespread rain and storms that SE Australia and more particuly Victoria should be getting this time of the Year for Spring it was from a fairly narrow line/band of storms that developed over your area and trailed over your area for few hours without moving much which caused all that rainfall.. alot of luck involved in that plain and simple! While many other areas missed out.. And No that wasn't my area we copped alot of rain here too but unlike you I'm not thinking of just my area and looking at the main picture.


Melbourne's water storage now over 63%, Eildon full for the first time since 1996. Thomson now over 50% which is very significant. A lot of areas that are very severely bushfire prone have a lot of greenery and are still damp and we are now in mid October. Of course every year can see a bad bushfire outbreak in summer but the odds are in our favour at this stage.

Yes, it is bad to see it so dry in western VIC, but October has seen a big improvement in this area and remembering that western VIC saw the absolute brunt of the extreme rainfall over last spring/summer so soil moisture is still quite good despite the dry winter/spring.

The reason I am so pleased with the wet September and October (so far) is due to the +ve IOD that threatened to create a serious situation state wide for the coming summer. The eastern two thirds of the state have pretty much dodged a major bullet and the dam levels have increased further when they could have started dropping by now.

Again, that is bad luck for western VIC, they do tend to get drier summers in the west of the state so the bushfire risk there may be of concern over the summer months. So yes, it has been a mixed bag but it could be a lot worse. wink


Edited by ColdsnapIII (15/10/2011 15:51)

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#1022182 - 18/10/2011 11:14 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: ColdsnapIII]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
And since then it hasn't rained the past 3 weeks on top of the very dry September Western areas had.. All in one of the wettest Months its suppose to be of the Year... Not looking good especially if late this week and early next week doesn't come off
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#1022186 - 18/10/2011 11:22 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
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Some parts of Western Victoria are yet to see any proper Spring rains and yet were past halfway through Spring.. Its makes a difference when it rains in your own backyard doesn't it Andrew/Coldsnap.. I stand by what I said earlier if this was your area and you had yet to receieve any proper Spring rain til this point today October 18th you be jumping up and down about it in how screwed up the Climate is for Victoria and how its changed and its not the same way it used to be etc etc


Edited by _Johnno_ (18/10/2011 11:32)
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#1022188 - 18/10/2011 11:28 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Only reason why those lakes and dams are that high now was cos we had incredible rainfall in 2010 some parts of Victoria had their wettest Year and then to back it up other parts of Victoria had the wettest Summer on record most of the hard work was done last Year and last Summer interms of filling those lakes/dams.. Very minimal to do with this Spring! All I can say is thankgod we had that rainfall in that 12 month period! Melbourne dams are almost stalling and normally September and October they are flying up! Melbourne dams have been stuck around the 63% mark for 3 weeks! like I said this is the wettest Time of the Year for this part of Victoria and there is no resemblance at the moment not even close.


Edited by _Johnno_ (18/10/2011 11:33)
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#1022193 - 18/10/2011 11:45 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
How do you suppose VIC/SA will fair this summer in terms of rainfall/temperatures, Johnno?
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#1022199 - 18/10/2011 12:10 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Hard to tell mate all depends on how Strong this La Nina can get.. We had a moderate La Nina Summer of 2007/08 and we had close to average rainfall.... We had a moderate La nina Summer of 2008/09 and we had the worst bushfires in history in Feb 09 we went pratically rainless down here right through Jan and Feb + extreme dry heat both those factors were the perfect scenario for the firestorm that we had. Then last Year one of the strongest La Nina's on record and we had flooding through Spring and Summer down here so I guess it all depends on the strength of this La Nina.. The stronger it is better chance of seeing some good rainfall down here but if its moderate or worst I don't expect alot of rain this Summer down here infact wouldn't suprise me if we had below average rainfall


Edited by _Johnno_ (18/10/2011 12:10)
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#1022232 - 18/10/2011 14:52 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
Markus Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2205
Loc: Clare, SA
Looks like an average spring at my locality is going to eventuate. Troughs are coming through fairly readily but a serious lack of fronts have occured of late. No signifigant northwest cloudbanks have eventuated as of yet. Summer i am thinking could be a bad one for bushfire risk here. Already starting to dry out quick after a rather poor april-september period. Only recieved just over 65% of average i would say.

In regards to moisture levels and rainfall through eastern s.a. and western vic I woud be suggesting they need a good deep soaking in the form of inches very soon. Some people are very quick to forget how dry it was only a few years ago, especially through the prementioned area. The Spring/Summer rainfall of 2010/2011 was absolutely a lifesaver for farmers doing it extremely tough. It also saved the ecosystems of river systems throughout the South and East of Australia from collapse. While many rivers flooded and damn were filled we need to be careful in thinking we are out of the woods, realistically we are far far from it. This past winter and spring have been poor rainfall wise and the River Murray has already returned to normal flowage.
People are already whinging about water prices and how the Adelaide desal plant is a waste of money. This is pure ignorance. People, especially in the cities see water as an endless source coming from a tap. With no water coming from the desal how long do people honestly think our current water stocks are going to last if it were to return to a drought? You could already consider another drought coming along in the eastern s.a., western vic area.

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#1022241 - 18/10/2011 15:41 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: Markus]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Well said Markus I couldn't of put it better myself most areas of SE Australia have had below average rainfall since the start of the Southern wet season started (April to September) Bushfires are a very serious threat this Year if we don't get inches of rain as you say over the coming weeks. October has been no better so far neally 20 days in and lots of areas are way below average.



For those few who think everything is rosey as we head into Summer think again heres the real picture for SE Australia since the Southern Wet season started back in April til now.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=csws&area=nat


Edited by _Johnno_ (18/10/2011 15:44)
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#1022243 - 18/10/2011 15:47 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Coincidentally that whole period we have been dominated by Cool ssts North & NW of Australia + a weak Positive IOD.. You don't have to be Einstein to see the ripple effect it has had for SE OZ the past 5-6 months.
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#1022244 - 18/10/2011 15:51 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Also well known that SE Australia increases its chances of seeing longer sustain heatwaves during a weak to moderate La Nina during the Summer & early Autumn seasons especially for SA/Vic & Southern NSW (West of the ranges).. Well qualified Climatologists have come on here over the Years and have mentioned this


Edited by _Johnno_ (18/10/2011 15:56)
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#1022245 - 18/10/2011 15:53 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2011-12 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Jan & Feb 2009 was a perfect example of this, March 2008 was another example.
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