LOL, Matty's excited, I dont give it much chance to survive for long if it did form

Seas are picking up (dammit... I have a five hour boat ride tomorrow to Nadi).
Nitso, where do you reckon the firing line of the low is? I put it to the north east tracking SE. The area I am in is at the top of the small chain of islands North of Nadi (sorry for being slightly selfish about this).
Cimss shows little definitive organisation, but there is little doubt about the 850mb vorticity. Shear wise there is a hole that tracks SE.
I must be be a bloody magnet, last time I was in Fiji I flew into a Cat 3.
Either way it looks like the Yasawas will remain clear (I hope).
Latest Fiji met map http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0991.jpg

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZNOV2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N
143.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 136.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115
NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC EXISTS IN A
HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY AGAINST
15 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT HAS SHOWN MILD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NO IMPEDIMENTS TO OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH NO CLEAR OUTFLOW CHANNELS
EXIST. A 130318Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWED ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
AROUND THE LLCC, BUT HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT
NORTHEASTERLIES WERE INDICATED TO THE DISTANT NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. SURFACE REPORTS FROM YAP REVEALED 2 MB 24 HR PRESSURE FALLS
AS THE SYSTEM PASSED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA ARE 31 TO 32 DEGREES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY VERY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE VISAYAS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

Matty, that ones in the northern hemi

Lightning to the north and north east. Wind (mild) is hard define direction wise. One minute from the northeast the next from the south west. Starting to show some (unwanted) promise on metsat. Will post further in the AM.

Ha ha Mat's getting the South and North Pacific muddled up.

Poncho, the ACCESS model keep this system weak and keep the trough south of it and therefore it moves almost nowhere under a lack of surface to 700Hpa steer. I don't think this will be the case.

I think the more likely scenario is a strong tropical LOW that pushes SE and then eventually transitions into an Extra-tropical cold cored system. oguided by the mid and upper level NW/NNW winds. If any gales occur with this system, and I'm not sure that they will, they should occur on the eastern semicircle, so if the LOW passes west of you Boomer, you might feel its full effects of rain and wind due to some strong convergence east and north-east of it.

I'd say it's still in with a 10-30% chance of development, I wouldn't class development potential as HIGH though due to the amount of shear in the region, however an upper ridge is doing its best to weaken the strong upper flow and the trough to the south of the LOW will facilitate some outflow without choking it (at least for the next 48 hours)

GFS model cyclone phase forecast pretty well sums up my thinking at the moment. We should see a strong warm cored tropical LOW develop and not quite make it to cat 1 cyclone status due to an assymetrical wind field before transitioning into a cold cored system.

Below is the GFS deterministic run from 00z phase diagram for what could be our first invest system in the next 24hrs



CMC's deterministic run has once again over-estimated cyclogenesis tipping a decent Cat 1 system to develop and push more southwards.



I'm not allowed to post EC's run but it's somewhere between the 2, it forecasts gales but only in a small portion of the eastern semicircle. It maintains a direction somewhat closer to the GFS forecast, but there is no doubt in any of the model guidance that the system will be warm cored. The UKMET is not interested and has a shallow LOW drifting south until it dies in 5 days time.

Still plenty of model divergence, this one is testing them already.

Thanks you so much for that infomation.

I with you there let see how to play out.

Let rock this world....

have you got a link to that info nitso?

seems to be moving west boomer.

EEERR. our little low seems to have sprouted a large tail!!! Now moving SW
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

I think you are right a lots has change since over night this really need to be watch very closely again.

I am with you there this low got a little bit big that make a good cat 1 or a cat 2 or Tropical Cyclone.

Very very close to a Cat 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone it's looks like.

I just see what you all think??

Some impressive convection going on now. Big black tops and even a slight hint of rotation.I think you might be getting a little wet boomer.

At last we have an update from fiji met!

Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 9:49am on Monday the 14th of November 2011

Situation: A tropical disturbance lies to the north of Fiji and is
slowly moving south-southeast. Associated active trough of low
pressure with assiociated cloud and rain lies over the group.
Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Fiji group:
Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms over Vanua
Levu, Taveuni, Lomaiviti and Lau group and the interior and eastern
part of Viti Levu. Elsewhere, occasional rain and few thunderstorms.
Flooding of low lying areas likely.
Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds, gusty at times.
Rough seas.
Outlook for WEDNESDAY : Rain and thunderstorms over most places.

For Navua / Suva / Nausori :
Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.

Outlook for WEDNESDAY : Rain and thunderstorms.

For Nadi / Lautoka / Ba :
Occasional rain and few thunderstorms.
Outlook for WEDNESDAY : Rain and thunderstorms.

For Labasa :
Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.
Outlook for WEDNESDAY : Rain and thunderstorms.

For Savusavu : Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally
thunderstorms.
Outlook for WEDNESDAY : Rain and thunderstorms.

For Rotuma : Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally
thunderstorms.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds, gusty at times.
Moderate to rough seas.

Outlook for WEDNESDAY : Rain and thunderstorms.

The first tropical depression of the season, From the Fiji Met.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 13/2317 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 178.0E AT
132100 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS AND IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE UP TO 500 HPA. TD01F LIES
UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_outlook.pdf

Interesting days ahead for Fiji? The amount of rain that fell today in Suva had many roads flooded and will put low lying areas at serious risk of flooding in the coming days.

Bula Vinaka Boomer I hope you're safely on the mainland!

We will appreciate your updates over the coming 24-48 hours.

The low as weak just a bit since the past 24/48 hours but it's may re develop more maybe with in the next 24/48 hours if things go very well will surely see.

I call it a samll chance if it's does happen or not.

latest advice -

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 14/0831 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 176.0E AT
140600 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.


ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED AND REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE UP TO 500 HPA. TD01F LIES UNDER A
250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Thanks for that update Mick10.

What the Chance of the low turn to the WS and them turn to West move again that way mate is that sitll on the cards or not at the moving that way I mean??


I like to know what do you think??

models have been consistant with S or SE movement from the start (well those models that did predict it), so no, not really any chance at all. its just too far away mathew.

Thanks for that update .

I am happy to left that as that them.

Keep me update over night or Tuesday if any things change I mean.