Looks like the stuff from the east is approaching to our waters. Looks like another monsoonal burst ahead from that massive thick cloud east of PNG moving westwards. No wonder why COLA is suggesting heavy falls most of the tropics.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html

Thanks for that info Southern oracle. Quite a strange phenomena.the MJO. I read somewhere you can spot 'it' on the world satellite pic re : convection./cloud but l am yet to find 'it'
LOL

Oh my Matthew T. just had a look at the forecst rainfall and looks like QLD and NSW are in for some more heavy rain after the last floods?
Is that related to the MJO position or is the monsoon trough heading southward over the mainland again?
Another n/west tropical infeed moving over QLD/NSW from near the GOC?

is the BOM going back in time? last week the backdated the tropical note to tuesday and this week they have updated it with the Tropical note from the 7th of Feb?
Weekly Tropical Climate Note

Issued on Tuesday 7 February 2012
soi eases further, but La Niña persists
The Southern Oscillation Index (soi) eased slightly over the past week, falling below +10 for the first time since late November. The current (4 February) 30-day soi value stands at +8.3. The contributing atmospheric pressures were 0.8 hPa above normal at Tahiti and 1.0 hPa below normal at Darwin. The monthly soi for January was +9.4. The 5-month running mean (centred on November) was +13.0.
Oceanic indictors remain at La Niña levels with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sub-surface temperatures persisting across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The NINO3.4 index is currently at -1.1. Cloudiness near the Date Line continues to be below average south of the equator. Enhanced convection remained dominant across the western Maritime Continent and extended through far north Queensland and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).
Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this La Niña event will gradually decline over the coming months. However, it will remain a dominant climate driver until the end of the north Australian wet season (end of April).
La Niña periods are typically associated with above average rainfall across northern Australia during the wet season. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than normal from December onwards, and tropical cyclone activity is usually above average between November and April.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.
Monsoon eases across northern Australia
After a wet end to January, drier conditions have returned to far northern Australia as the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) retreated north and weakened. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) continued to gain strength and has maintained a steady eastward progression over the Pacific Ocean. There is a good degree of agreement between models, suggesting this MJO will remain strong over the next two weeks as it progresses across the western hemisphere. Current guidance suggests the MJO will not be back in the Australian longitudes until late February.
Drier than average conditions are expected across northern Australia for the next one to two weeks due to the break conditions of the NAM and the forecast track of the MJO. Southeasterly winds will gradually spread across most of northern Australia by the end of the week, with strong winds expected across central parts of the continent. Remnants of the NAM remain over a region from the Cape York Peninsula to Vanuatu, but it is expected to weaken by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is expected to continue on an east track and gain intensity before crossing the island nation of Vanuatu on Wednesday and continue east towards Fiji.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information, including rainfall maps.
Next update expected by 14 February 2012 | Product Code IDCKGEWOOO
For more information please contact climate.nt@bom.gov.au
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 21 February 2012

La Niña continues, but the Pacific warms
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have continued to warm during the previous week. Despite this, the typical La Niña pattern remains, although weaker, with the NINO3.4 index currently at –0.5 °C.

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (soi) also weakened over the past week dropping from last’s week +12.0 value to +8.0 on 18 February. The contributing atmospheric pressures were 0.9 hPa above normal at Tahiti and 0.7 hPa below normal at Darwin. The monthly soi for January was +9.4. The 5-month running mean (centred on November) was +13.0.

Although both oceanic and atmospheric indices show signs of weakening, cloudiness near the Date Line continues to be below average, while convection across the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was greatly reduced over the past week. In contrast, enhanced convection was dominant over the South China and Philippines Seas.

Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this La Niña event will gradually decline over the coming months. However, it will continue to play a mayor role on Australian climate until the end of the north Australian wet season (end of April).

La Niña periods are typically associated with above average rainfall across northern Australia during the wet season. Tropical cyclone activity is usually above average between November and April, with six named systems across the Australian longitudes since November 2011.

See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.

The monsoon looms as drier conditions continue
Drier conditions continued over northern Australia as the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) remains in a break period. Agreement between the models continues, suggesting the MJO will remain strong over the next fortnight as it progresses across the Indian Ocean. Current guidance suggests it will not be back in Australian longitudes until the last few days in February or early March.

Over the next week and under the current scenario, drier than average conditions are expected to continue across northern Australia. Humidity levels across far northern Australia are expected to increase while daytime temperatures in central Australia continue to hit the high 30s and low 40s.

A weak trough is now developing over the southern Maritime Continent. A stronger signature of the NAM is expected to develop over the eastern Indian Ocean and the Coral Sea next week. With a developing NAM, the chance of tropical cyclones forming in the Australian longitudes is expected to increase over the next fortnight.

See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information, including rainfall maps.

Next update expected by 28 February 2012 |

An active Northern Australia Monsoon
An active MJO has slowly propagated eastwards over the past week across the Maritime Continent. This event is forecast to remain active and continue its eastward propagation across Australian longitudes over the next days, enhancing convection over the region. Model guidance suggests this MJO will move into the western Pacific Ocean later this week.
Over the past week, above average convection was observed over the eastern Indian Ocean, the Maritime Continent and most of northern Australia. Below normal cloudiness continued from New Guinea to the Date Line, with a weaker than usual South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) in the western Pacific.
A monsoon trough over the Timor and Arafura seas is expected to strengthen and migrate southwards over the coming days. Winds will shift west-northwest with monsoonal showers and storms developing over the far north of Australia. Central Australia will remain in east-to-northeasterly flow which could be strong at times over the weekend.
With the MJO currently moving across the Maritime Continent and a strengthening Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM), the risk for tropical cyclone formation and above average rainfall across tropical Australia will be high, more so over the northwest. A tropical low is currently being monitored over the Timor Sea, while a low off the coast of the Pilbara is likely to achieve tropical intensity later in the week. Next week, the risk of tropical cyclone formation over the Coral Sea will increase to moderate, as the MJO enters the Pacific.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information, including rainfall maps.
Next update expected by 20 March 2012 |