getting close and closer to November, and the MJO signal moving into phase 2 is exceptionally strong. be an interesting few weeks to see how strong it remains will moving across the indian ocean.
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html

If we get a massive high pressure system like we did this week in the monsoon season, the monsoon will get pushed back to the equator.

The latest Gradient Level Wind Analysis appears to show a slight cross equatorial flow into the area around that trough up near the Solomons. Could this lead to an early appearance of the MT like last year?

The position of the monsoon trough seems to have been pretty ill defined over the past week or so. On the current Gradient Wind Analysis (24/10 1200UTC) the only obvious cross equatorial flow seems to be in the area south of Sri Lanka where the North East Asian monsoon is converging with the flow from the Southern Hemisphere. Most of South and East Asia is dominated by NE Monsoon and the North Pacific trades. In fact convection over tropical East Asia has been very quiet lately as evidenced by satellite IR imagery. Despite this, October is still very early to see the MT in the Southern Hemisphere.

MJO Singnal is looking ok as it moves into the maritime continent. Bom says it is weakening, but there is plenty of cloud.
http://reg.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml
There is plenty of water vapour right across the indian ocean with storm activity from a low near Yemen to Jakarta.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/images/xxwvm5bbm.jpg
Heavy rain is forecast for Jakarta for much of the next several days.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/world/southeast-asia/indonesia/jakarta
Reasonable areas of high pressure across central asia, and lower pressure trough through north australia, helping draw the MJO this way.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=G&model=G
Could be an early start to the monsoon, mid Nov looks interesting.

mjo signal weaked in phase 3 but is popping back up as it now moves into phase 4. going by the usual 40 day cycle, the next pulse should hit the maritime continent mid december, which is just about right on time to kick the monsoon off over northern WA and NT and into Qld by Christmas.

Just a quick question and might sound daft asking it....but....since all the severe flooding else where in the world eg. Thailand etc....does that mean the extreme rain will travel down our way....Just asking I am fairly new to the forum...cheers

After a flare up early in the week with a tropical storm in the South China Sea convection has again died off over most of SE Asia, even the equatorial region. This afternoon northern Australia has the most land based activity.

in my time following the weather i have never really looked a link personally. but i guess its the same when looking at the wet summer this country had last year and the failed rains on the african continent. i am a believer in that while its pouring on one side, its not on the other!
sorry it doesnt really answer your question, but i hope someone on here might have some info for you, maybe comparisions between busy typhoon and cyclone seasons maybe?

I am finding the The NOAA website a great resource- explains and forecasts the MJO.
NOAA Madden/Julian Oscillation MJO

The BOM has analysed the MT through the Soloman Islands/eastern PNG area on yesterdays and todays MSL charts. Not sure I agree with this though, maybe more like the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Looking at the 1200Z gradient wind chart of 12/11 I would say the MT is aligned ESE/WNW from northern Sumatra to Irian Jaya.

well if we believe this mornings charts, the monsoon trough runs from Katherine in the NT down to near Adelaide. but i see what you mean Nerd, agreed its a convergence zone, no cross equatorial flow so the real MT is still well north.

Latest surface chart from Thai Met Dept gives a good indication of where the trough may lie. Just follow the big (L)s

http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/maps/2011-11-14_TopChart_01.jpg

Am I correct in assuming that the fairly weak signal of the MJO in the western Pacific atm is what has kicked off this slight depression north of Fiji. And also that its weak strength will not help any development?
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

Mick:
On the 13/11 1200Z Gradient Wind Analysis the BOM have explicitly marked the position of the MT. A bit unusual for this chart. Almost as if they were reading this thread and and wanted to make a point ;-) Not impossible I suppose. That series of lows around 5-10 deg. north looks convincing as the main area of convergence though.

Sandfly:
I've seen those charts before but find the analysis over the equatorial area a bit sus. If you have a close look some of plotted pressures don't correspond at all to the isobars. Also those lows seem too symetrical and perfect. A pity because otherwise it looks like a nice big clear chart.

I vote %50 to %50 chance December 2011 big wet or after the new year 2012 a big wet.

Nerd:
The Jap WV loop seems consistant with the Thai plot;
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgmsw.html

Last Qscat data has the convergence in the same area, am I missing something?
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/QuikSCATData.php/QuikSCATData.php (sorry this does not seem to work - My Uni login prevents it's use)

Sandfly:
Yes the Thai chart does show a broad trough along approximarely 5 deg. N which is no doubt a real feature. My point was that I had doubts about the reality of the individual low centres depicted.

In any case this is not where the BOM has analysed the MT on their streamline chart and this is what I was referring to with Mick. I did note in my earlier post that a series of lows at 5-10 Deg. N looked a more likely candidate for the MT. This correponds to the eastern half of the broad trough on the Thai chart. Based on the BOM chart I reckon the MT at that time extended from central Borneo to south of the Philippines and then on to the aforementioned series of lows. The BOM doesn't agree with this as they have it about 10 deg further south through PNG and the Soloman Islands to a low north of Fiji.

To clarify, the BOM chart I'm referring to is the 1200z Gradient Wind Analysis (http://www.bom.gov.au/difacs/IDX0514.pdf) which although it depicts the wind as streamlines it also shows major lows and highs. There is a 0000Z chart as well but the 1200 chart is easier to read as it's manually drawn.

I did have a look at the Qscat site but couldn't make much sense of the wind imagery. Either the site's not working properly or I'm not using it properly.

The BOM are suggesting an early arrival of the Monsoon due to the rapid pace of the MJO. Early Dec is their call.

From the BOM

"The MJO heads into the Indian Ocean
Over the past couple of weeks, a fast moving Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event has circumnavigated earth in just 30 days. A weak MJO is currently over Africa, heading east into the Indian Ocean. The majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that if this MJO continues at the current speed, it will redevelop in the western Maritime Continent in early December.

Over the next week, decreased rainfall and tropical cyclone potential is likely in the northwest Pacific and the Maritime Continent, influenced by the current position of the MJO. However, an increase in cyclone potential is likely over the next week in the southwestern Indian Ocean.

Climatologically, the onset of the monsoon rains coincides with the Christmas holidays. Based on the current scenario, there is potential for an earlier onset of the monsoon across northern Australia".

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

It may be quick but it is also very weak. Gonna have to really strengthen quickly to have a big impact as far as rain and cyclogenises goes.