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#1014421 - 25/09/2011 14:48 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
5 consecutive days

...

the minimums have not fallen below 3 degrees.

Make that 19, ending last night.

Streamflow has fallen away considerably. Pressure is currently around 1019 hPa.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (25/09/2011 14:51)
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#1014943 - 27/09/2011 17:06 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Pressure is currently around 1019 hPa.

Currently 996 hPa.
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#1015017 - 27/09/2011 22:05 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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At this stage, the latest GFS run (06Z 27 sep 2011 to 18Z 04 oct 2011), has almost 20 mm forecast for tomorrow morning and into the afternoon, and about 40-45 mm forecast for a period late Thursday into Friday. Another 10-15 mm is forecast Friday into Saturday. The wettest period looks like late Thursday to early Saturday morning. The change in runoff for the period Thursday night into Friday is (in magnitude) considerable and abrupt (about 8 times current runoff levels). There is a smaller peak a day or two after, but much lesser (maybe 2 twice as much).

The signs are beginning to look more encouraging for a major runoff event later on this week, once the initial falls start soaking into the soil.
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#1015852 - 29/09/2011 23:47 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
There may some potential for flooding in the region mentioned in post #1013495 - 20-09-2011 09:23 PM in the coming week or two.

37.3 mm to 11 pm today, starting yesterday.
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#1015853 - 29/09/2011 23:51 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
teckert Offline
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Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I reckon you are looking at about 30-40mm in the next 24 hours Carl...
Some models suggest similar mid next week, but I'd be more going with GFS at this stage and maybe 10mm during wednesday.


Edited by teckert (29/09/2011 23:52)

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#1015855 - 30/09/2011 00:01 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Pretty relentless stuff. Has anyone got a reasonable ETA on this next bit? I might need it.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (30/09/2011 00:07)
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#1015857 - 30/09/2011 00:16 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Pretty relentless stuff. Has anyone got a reasonable ETA on this next bit? I might need it.

Got it smile .
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#1015932 - 30/09/2011 10:22 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
There may some potential for flooding in the region mentioned in post #1013495 - 20-09-2011 09:23 PM in the coming week or two.

37.3 mm to 11 pm today, starting yesterday.

Going by GFS, it might cover our area as well.

2 inches and counting. Streamflow starting to respond more.
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#1015966 - 30/09/2011 13:15 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Streamflow along the Onkaparinga is beginning to respond more rapidly.
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#1016074 - 30/09/2011 20:30 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
I would say we need another 10-15 mm in maybe an hour or two or 20 mm or so in 24 hours to start to see the puddles in the paddocks connect with the river flow.

Whether that actually happens in another question.

Real gumboot weather.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (30/09/2011 20:40)
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#1016649 - 02/10/2011 21:07 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
A bit over 2.4 inches (60 mm) to yesterday. Moderate change in flow (few metres in height terms to the river bank). 10-15 mm didn't eventuate, possibly unrealistic in the end.

Soil moisture is up and paddocks have become very green in last day or two. Overnight temperatures are plummeting again, pressure rising (~ 1015 hPa). Likely more rain to come mid-to-late this week.
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#1016984 - 04/10/2011 20:50 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
More than the fact of soil moisture increasing being interesting, is the temperature trend in the latest GFS run (00Z 04 oct 2011 to 12Z 11 oct 2011). The trend appears to be linear. But that's not the most interesting thing about it. It's the fact that the forecast trend is down that's most interesting, at the moment.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (04/10/2011 20:56)
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#1017149 - 05/10/2011 15:14 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
If anyone has any records of minimum temperature or humidity/vapour pressure they'd like to share, I'd interested to know the linear trends in each, starting 1/1/2011 to 9/4/2011, and 10/4/2011 to now smile . I'm getting two distinct trends in each for each period.
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#1017702 - 07/10/2011 22:42 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Written two days ago (5/10/11), modified today:

Ok, a bit closer (short-notice) this time…but still there:

The GFS (06Z 06 oct 2011 to 18Z 13 oct 2011) run shows 70-80 mm Saturday Night-Sunday Morning to perhaps midday. The run (00Z 07 oct 2011 to 12Z 14 oct 2011) had perhaps 30-35 mm.

Change in runoff (only 2-3 days out) is significant (about 4 orders of magnitude at the moment – 5/10/11).

Update 7/10/11: 10 times current flow levels, so a little less.

A sharp, abrupt change in soil moisture…almost 10% by catchment area (5/10/11).

Update 7/10/11: again, a little less.

Forecast had increasing rain since about the 3rd of October…it might still maintain until tomorrow (Saturday), but I’m a little sceptical at the moment (7/10/11).

One to keep an eye on smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (07/10/2011 22:43)
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#1019024 - 12/10/2011 17:22 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills


Streamflow 11th May 2010:







Streamflow 4th September 2010:



Streamflow 17th August 2011:

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#1019813 - 14/10/2011 09:38 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Ok, let's try this again:

Special Note, Today's Forecast: "Possible Thunderstorm."

=> Observing radar/satellite...

Thunder heard...heavy rain!
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#1021866 - 17/10/2011 11:03 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7466
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
4.5 mm from the last event (14th)...not much of a change.

On another note, I don't think I've seen the pressure this high (today) for quite some time (~1029), after being only 1008 a couple of days ago. Last night's overnight low of zero (with a frost) was also contrasting in the sense that the last time it was around that mark was the 3rd...the average min since the 3rd being about 8 degrees.
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#1021906 - 17/10/2011 13:11 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7466
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Another reason recent soil moisture estimates indicate the sub-surface is quite damp is because a local pond still contains maybe 0.5-1 metre of water. Although it is bit early to tell, this slightly suggests the level at which the moisture in the soil is at the moment, if underground pressure due to mass was removed, would be quite high. This means if we drilled a hole down to the level of moisture in the soil (saturation), the water could rise up the column a long way. Whether it would become artesian (overflowing) is another question.

It's mid October, December is a while away. Depending on the above, and pressure changes (dropping pressure heading into summer), we could hypothesise there is a slight suggestion of high humidity, and atmospheric moisture, at the moment!
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#1023173 - 21/10/2011 21:42 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7466
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Small ants building some nests along the upper river bank for some reason. Not just a few ants though, hundreds of them confused . Humidity is continuing to increase on a daily basis.

The ants building nests along the river bank could be another aberration…or they know something we don’t.

Revision:

Edit: S’’t @ the forecast peak for the 25th eek – 00Z 21 oct 2011 to 12Z 28 oct 2011 run! Only 3-4 days out! 130 mils! I guess that's what you call rain in plain speak.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (21/10/2011 21:51)
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#1023484 - 23/10/2011 11:12 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7466
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Interesting...rain forecast for tomorrow.
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