I see in the latest synoptic outlook that WZ is sticking it's neck and and having the NT low riding the upper trough all the way to Queensland. I am a little skeptical, but time will tell.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Wednesday 21 December 2011

Valid until the end of Saturday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A developing tropical low is located north of the Top End in the Arafura Sea.
The low is expected to remain slow moving and intensify gradually. The low may
develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Thursday: Low.
Friday: High.
Saturday: High.

So latest synoptic is out from the BoM. They still feel it will hang round NT with a general westward pattern. Looks like some wet days ahead up that way!

And to think its bright and sunny outside..

Just had a news conference on ABC TV and they are going to issue a Cyclone Watch in NT because they seem sure this will impact with some very severe weather somewhere.
They still dont know which way it will go. West,East or South. models are not clear enough at this time to allow them to make a decision of where its going yet.
They said it could be 24 0r 48 hrs before it actually becomes a cyclone.
This news conference was with the BOM of NT.
So its still wait and watch but at the moment the watch is for the north of NT including Darwin.
The watch will be issued within the next hour.

Latest GFS run still consistent with cyclone tracking into GOC over weekend then crossing out across CYP on Tuesday , models still having trouble with take on the system a lot will hedge on where it actually forms along the trough. Good banding starting near Gove.

Yes this is correct - watch will be from Dundee Beach to the south of Darwin all the way to Gove.

latest visible MTSAT loop looks very impressive http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html , great banding and outflow starting to spin up.

With the watch soon to take effect - can someone create a thread for this system when watch is initiated Ta

Also - those with Facebook should link in with https://www.facebook.com/pages/1057-ABC-Darwin/339639229872?sk=wall ABC Darwin 1057 to post info there as well.

Direct link to 105.7 ABC Darwin:

http://www.abc.net.au/darwin/programs/webcam_radio.htm?ref=listenlive&src=internetradio

Just got home from a 12 hour night shift I should stay off the computer before going to bed in the morning.

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:55 pm CST on Wednesday 21 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
175 kilometres north of Croker Island and
350 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and
moving west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop late on Friday or during Saturday
north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24
hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 9.6 degrees South 132.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 120 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 21 December.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

Latest from Rob on youtube about the cyclone potential of the 2 lows http://www.youtube.com/user/robcenter1#p/u/0/Itzx4-tubG8 great info!

Threat map


http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.gif?1324452715484

Please tell me I'm not the only one that see's 1050 on that map! That is a LOT LOT LOT of rain about

I think it could be a 10 and a 50 overlapping as the other markers nearby are around the 50-150 mark but I read it as you did initially...What the?!

gee not sure about that, i think it could 1050, all the other overlapping boxed do just that, this box and the one underneath it are larger than the other. there are 500 & 600mm boxed mixed in too. but either way, not often you get combined 600mm falls for that matter too!

Just seems like a big jump from the two nearest legible boxes though...but hey I am happy to be convinced...

I'm sure there is a thread about this but if this does form and it looks like it will, is anyone else seeing similarities with 1974?
Brisbane floods in Jan, Victoria floods as well and then Tracy. This won't be a Tracy but funny how things work!

RIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 10:45 pm CST on Wednesday 21 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
175 kilometres north of Croker Island and
350 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and
moving west northwest at 2 kilometres per hour.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop late on Friday or during Saturday
north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24
hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 9.6 degrees South 132.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 120 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Thursday 22 December.