Link please

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Latest BoM MJ0 chart (read the links.... yes I know... for those unfamiliar it takes some time getting your head around it... but it's highly influential and is set to fire up both the west coast and CS cyclone season within the next few to six weeks).
Looks like its back in the Indian and heading our way (that little hook I'm unsure of... could it be related to the TC activity around Madagascar?)

Yeah its a hard one to predict this season as to what remains. There's talk that March could be active but you could say that most years for the NW. I guess with such a clear start to FEB with blue sky and sun warming those oceans you could say it is well and truely primed for action and potentially later action if the waters can sustain a system into April.

The Indian ocean sat image shows some nice convection building right the way across. Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean have had TC Giovanna, another LOW out there currently and another forecast to form according to EC near Madagascar. This may halt the passage of the MJO for another 2 weeks before continuing onto WA waters. Its strength as it nears the WA waters is something to consider. Will it just fluff about or strengthen solidly? I guess if you were looking at the MJO style cyclone setups you would be looking for action in our waters around a week into March at a guess and then potentially firing for a few weeks. If the 30-40 days cycles were to go by this would push the next MJO into Mid April which is bordering on being late but not out of the question.

If you were to just look at convection building and firing off a cyclone separate to the MJO then anytime is a potential really over the next 6 weeks. Whilst the models are not showing anything too significant they have missed a few over the recent years that have just organised and formed. So I think the season left will hopefully give the NW the majority of our rainfall totals from regular storm activity and as for cyclones..... Thats the big question. It seems likely that it will be a big finish to the season but who knows we may get nothing. It has been a bit of a strange season so anything is possible.

The monsoon trough is reapearing on BOMS 4 day charts so that is something to consider aswell. Could be time to watch those sat images and MSAT loops to watch for any interesting areas of convection spinning up.

I think you need WZ Silver for it.

From our Facebook Page for those without Facebook:

Oz Cyclone Chasers Model Cyclone Update:

AREA 1 is now becoming our focus in the 10+ day time frame with Area 2 showing significantly less potential for development.

AREA 1 - Just off the Kimberley coastline. Modelling shows a weak LOW forming in this region between Tuesday and Thursday next week with a 70% confidence in this scenario. Models then have this weak LOW gradually strengthening by late next week and into next weekend. Multi models show a 20% chance of a tropical cyclone near the Pilbara coastline next weekend, with potential increasing further after that time (IF the LOW can remain over water). However that is too far away for us to continue looking at.

AREA 2 - In the Central/Northern Coral Sea. A trough is expected to form at the surface in the fresh easterly flow. However potential for a closed circulation (LOW or TC) has dropped significantly since yesterday. Multi models suggest a 25% chance of a LOW developing along that trough and a just 0-5% chance of a tropical cyclone developing. The trough or LOW should push west and dump plenty of rain on the east coast especially between Cooktown and Townsville (however still being a few days away, this area is subject to change). If the trough is the dominant feature we will see moderate to heavy rainfalls through much of the NE Qld coast, if the LOW develops we will see flooding falls, but they will be much more concentrated. I'm sure Queenslanders would prefer a trough system that dumps 50+mm over a wide coastal region.

Residents particularly in Western Australia's Pilbara and Kimberley coastlines need to begin preparing their cyclone kits now because your potential for cyclone development increases quite rapidly in early to mid March.

Ahh nice to hear Nitso. Cheers. Have had a good break from the weather and am ready for some more action now. Any hint at Kimberley crossings or do they mostly seem to run the well worn path down to the Pilbara. I always think that the Kimberley is an early/late season option and the Pilbara is the main area during the Bulk of the season. Its all a very changeable environment I guess and anything is possible.

I am wondering if this period will be the last of the season for WA or if there can be a late surprise into April. I prefer a busy March cyclone wise and they can bugger off in April so the tourist can come back and spend their hard earned cashola in town. lol.

I'm starting to wonder if this season is closer to its end than we think. Even the usually over the top GFS 16 day charts are showing a blank chart. EC out to 10 days is barely even recognising a glitch out there. Alot is based on the so called cycles that migrate across the Southern Hemisphere 'in a usual year'.. The last very impressive Monsoon sent a promising cyclone close to Exmouth but eventually ended it up looking nicer closer to antarctica than the tropics.

Maybe it's just one of those years that's quiet for the NW. Unless it all comes with a rush in what appears to be now later and later into March. Time is running out. This season has been crap. Late start, no build up, hardly any lightning action, waters feel cool still inshore compared to previous years, Asia is not producing the big Highs except once. Our highs are a bit unusual. Whats with these multi model setups and these probablilities for a LOW next week. 1004hpa LOW yeah but what about the 925hpa CAT 5 for March. Are these multi model programs just clutching at anything out there? Before you know it, it will get pushed back and back and then the dry season characteristics will kick in and season 2011/12 will be all over.

I know the NWest will probably produce the goods, it usually does 8 years out of 10. Just starting to wonder whether this season is the 2 that don't. So far other than Heidi that cranked nearing the coast there has been Iggy and then Zip.

NORTHERN WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK
Tropical Cyclone potential is VERY LOW next week but there is a HIGH potential for a tropical LOW to develop near the Kimberley coastline (so it needs monitoring). Overall the rainfall pattern between Monday and Sunday next week suggests wetter conditions over most of WA and central Australia. Below to well below average rainfall expected over most of Queensland next week except for the north tropical and Peninsula east coasts which can expect average or slightly above average rainfalls due to surface and mid level ridging.

NORTHERN WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE 5TH TO 11TH MARCH
Tropical Cyclone Potential remains LOW, Tropical LOW formation potential remains HIGH and the favoured area is well west of the coastline in the SE Indian Ocean. We see average to slightly above average precipitation values over most of Australia this week as the Queensland ridge breaks down and the monsoon trough begins re-appearing over northern and north-western parts. The trough is strongest over the NW (west of about Darwin) and so that area is likely to see the highest rainfall amounts. The only section of Australia expected to see dryish conditions is the northern Cape York Peninsula.

FROM THE 12TH TO 18TH MARCH
Tropical Cyclone potential increases to MODERATE TO HIGH particularly near the NW coast of Australia. Tropical LOW development potential is VERY HIGH. In this week we are anticipating a strong monsoon trough over the far north and north-west extending as far east as the NT coast and weakening, but still present as it heads into far north Queensland. We are expecting ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE rainfalls over most of the northern continent. Especially so over the NW coast of Australia.

FROM THE 19TH TO THE 25TH MARCH
We are expecting the Monsoon trough to peak in intensity over the Australian coastline therefore we are looking at a MODERATE TO HIGH potential for TC development this week, once again especially in the NW parts of the continent with potential increasing also in the Timor Sea and GOC. Once again the entire northern continent is expected to see above average rainfalls and particularly wetter than normal totals this week expected over the western Cape York Peninsula and the NW coast of WA. Please note that this is a VERY LONG WAY OUT AND SUBJECT TO MASSIVE CHANGES

NOTES ON THE MJO
The MJO signal is currently in the process of strengthening, we expect based on model guidance from a number of computer models that this moderate to strong signal will be maintained through phase 3 SE Indian Ocean and phase 4 Northern Oz before weakening in Phase 5 (Coral Sea) late in March. Consequently this strong MJO signal is likely to see the return of a vigorous monsoonal trough over north and north-west Australia with the weakening trough extending eastwards towards the Coral Sea in weeks 4 and then week 5 (last week of March) A new MJO may form and affect Australia late in April, however it's way too far to call at this stage.

Please feel free to post comments or re-post this outlook to any of your friends who may be interested in it

The Tropical low/ Tropical Cyclone that developing hear WA I am give that one a %50/%50 chance it's may go hear the coast if it's does it's or not over the coming up weeks any that your Satellite Images What is happen a bit out to sea at the moment just a bit of a look any way.

I like to know what do you think any way?

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Saturday the 25th of February 2012
Valid until midnight WST Tuesday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low pressure system lies near 12S090E, forecast to move southwards on Sunday
and then southwest on Monday. As the low moves southwards shear over the system
will increase, with little if any potential of developing into a cyclone.

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:

Sunday :Low
Monday :Very Low
Tuesday :Very Low

ACCESS, EC and GFS still looking bland in their outlooks 10-16days. Give it another 4 days and hopefully we should see something forming on their charts.

Within WA waters that was not Africa or the central Indian ocean Mat.

You have got to admit though it's not a bad setup to be in at the moment... Rain and good storms just about daily for Broome, Monsoon strengthening again and heading down so rain still on the cards and further our a chance of a low or two.....

All well I was trying to help out that was all.

From Our FB site for those interested:

THE WEST
The West is complicated. We have a weak LOW right now on the Pilbara coastline, we have a number of weak LOWS that could also form over the next week near land. A stronger LOW is expected to form between 100 - 110E and push to the west while deepening this weekend. Early to mid next week a new LOW pushes off the Kimberley and is being given a 10% chance of developing into a TC by next Wednesday. It's this LOW that Oz Cyclone Chasers are paying the most attention to.

We start to see a 1035 - 1040 Hpa HIGH pushing into the South China Sea in 10 days and this along with stronger HIGHS in the Bight and Tasman seas south of us should be the catalyst for a moderate to strong monsoon in mid to late March.

Latest from the BOMS trop notes regarding the MJO. Positive signs but still some slight hesitation in their wording. With March about to commence it should be an interesting month to watch what unfolds and to what strength and where it all occurs.

Active MJO in Indian Ocean
The MJO is forecast to gain strength as moves eastward across the Indian Ocean over the next week, entering Australian longitudes during the second week of March. The risk for tropical cyclone formation and above average rainfall will increase as the MJO returns to the Australian region. .

Over the past week the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has stalled over the Indian Ocean prolonging the break in the North Australian Monsoon (NAM). This has produced easterly wind anomalies and suppressed convection over northern Australia. Ahead of the next MJO, tropical Australia can expect an return toward average February/March conditions. A weak monsoon trough is expected to re-form north of Australia later this week and wet season-like weather is expected to return to northern Australia and Papua New Guinea.

See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information, including rainfall maps.

That's basically BoM speak for "A hell of a lot of rain and probably a bunch of cyclones coming", not sure how much more positive you needed it Popeye

I guess it depends on what you classify a hell of a lot of rain. If they are saying a return to March average rainfall then Broome's last 4 March's have been 87mm, 31mm,76mm,35mm. As for cyclones how is the west looking for ridging and troughing in the next month. Are we likely to see some bigger pushes west and then a run poleward. I am wondering if we are likely to see a few cyclones that stay offshore and maybe one that might get in close for a crossing. I guess with the last 2 seasons having a lot of promise but only getting Heidi you have to be a bit sceptical thats all.