Well could be over for WA. But ya never know, April has been known to create some big Cyclones in the past. As below:

Cyclone threat eases for north-west WA
Thursday March 22, 2012 - 15:10 EDT
The Bureau of Meteorology says it is unlikely any more cyclones will hit the north-west Western Australian coast this wet season and that the area has already received most of its rainfall.

After a relatively dry start to the season, Tropical Cyclone Lua last week pushed rainfall figures for the Kimberley to about average, while Pilbara received a bit more rain than usual in recent months.

The exception is the far East Kimberley where the towns of Wyndham and Kununurra have been unusually dry.

Forecaster Glen Cook says while people should not get complacent, it is unlikely there will be any further tropical cyclones this season.

"That is what it is looking like at the moment. You can never rule them out and you do get cyclones in April, so we will be watching that very closely but the computer models are not particularly positive at this stage," Mr Cook said.

He says the wet season rains are expected to dry up in coming weeks.

"It is really dropping off, we have obviously had a bit of activity over the past week or so but now that activity is moving off into into the Pacific Ocean and we are really moving into a drier sort of a pattern," he said.

Well that time of the year is approaching fast where I say let the sun come out, the dry easterly winds kick in, the cool nights commence and the cyclones to rack off. 6 months is enough of this hot oppressive humid crap that we have come to love so much but in all honesty we love the dry season just as much.

BUT....... The next passage of the MJO is forecast to move through our region into the middle and late parts of April so you can't fully write it off just yet. Maybe a slight chance still for the Nth Kimberley Top End to get some late season showers and the slight chance of a LOW spinning up. As for the Pilbara and West Kimberley other than a few evening thunderstorms and light showers I reckon thats it. HEIDI, IGGY & LUA were all very entertaining systems and it was good to see WA put on a show again. See you all next season unless of course a late season surprise pops up.

You going into hibernation popeye?

HAHA Nahh coming out of hibernation. I have to start going to work every day from now on lol. Will keep an eye on the weather but I have a feeling its all clear and blue sky for the Nwest for the next 9 months. I would love for you guys to tell me otherwise.

Well if it is over, I'll be enjoying the next one over in Queensland . . moving to the land of the Banana Benders and XXXX Gold . . and that thing called Rugby League. But no shortage of monsoonal action during the wet season.

Still wondering if this season has a bit of late season potential yet to show itself. No sign of the strong SElys yet and the real change of season in to the dry. Walk outside now and get hit by temps around 29.5 degrees at 9pm and steamy humidity. Temps at work have been near unbearable with the lack of any breeze. Water temps are still cranking. I know the MJO has been hanging on in the pacific especially with Fiji etc but if it can get a wriggle on over into the Indian Ocean there is still a hint of a chance of something stirring in WA cyclone wise for late April. Conditions are still primed for a surprise. Time will tell and will no doubt prove me and those few bottles of NZ Sauv Blanc wrong lol.

I agree Popeye mother nature may yet have a surprise in store for us

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Hmmm... you never know. The MJO will obviously get there but will probably have a far lesser influence.

Fairly clear guidance and confidence from the lesser computer models of a LOW strengthening as it heads west across the Arafura Sea and enters the Timor Sea.

EC remains non-committal, with the deterministic keeping the LOW weak and pushing it into the Timor islands. Meanwhile the ensembles from EC seem to be all over the place with the LOW possibly lying anywhere from west of Broome to Timor to North of the Tiwis to on the coast near Kunnunnurra. So the EC model is somewhat confused right now.

Dry air entrainment will likely be the major limiting factor as the LOW heads into the Timor Sea. A surface to mid level ridge will continue to pump some very dry air from Central Australia towards the Timor Sea and tropical parts of the SE Indian Ocean. A lack of monsoon flow from the north means that even with the HIGH eventually moving off to the East, it will take 2-3 days for moisture to return to the oceanic area where this LOW is likely to be tracking towards. If the LOW can maintain structure through to the 9/10 day period, its potential to develop further increases steadily with upper conditions remaining very favourable as they have done all month so far throughout Australia's far north and SST's remaining at about 28 - 29 in the area.

The lack of NW flow into the system concerns me greatly, but if the system can hang on for 10 days it might just get a little nudge from the next MJO (assuming the next MJO pulse doesn't just die). The next MJO is likely about 10 days to 2 weeks away from Phase 3. It may just have enough of a push to give something a kick up the butt that's trying to develop in the NT or Timor region.

Clutching at straws I know, but a chance is a chance.

Will be interesting to see if and how far west it goes. Hoping it gets dragged down over the Top end/Gove area and stays clear of the Kimberely. I love a late cyclone but last April we lost 10 days of work to a LOW hovering just nth and west off the Kimberely Coast and cranking Strong/Gale force Easterlies over Broome with the squeeze in the pressure gradients between a huge HIGH and the LOW. If it does head west a repeat could be on the cards. Maybe not a cylone but may as well be if we get 25-35+ knts for a week and lost work.

Dry air cranking here in Broome now for the last 4-5 days. A mate asked me about any chance of a repeat late season cyclone Rosita (april 19th 2001). I kind of said unlikely but stranger things have happened. If the cards all laid out right there is definately potential but like Nitso said its clutching at straws. The chance of pulling Mitchell out of that straw pile is slight but still a chance.

I think the cyclone season finished in WA after LUA. Wich for a CAT 4 was pretty ordinary.

I think it did too El Steve o but while there is a chance you never know. The MJO pulse, whilst weakening is flying back into the Australian areas. A few of the private sites I have looked at even are mentioning it now but still as a LOW chance. If it has any oomph by then is to be seen.

Yeah Lua certainly didn't look all that flash for a CAT 4 but I guess it packed a punch under the core as it crossed the coast. Other than a few thousand head of cattle, a roadhouse owner and his missus, a few rangers at Cape Keraudren and the station owners at pardoo and the ozcyclone chaser fellas not much would have been noticed. Drop it over a big town especially like Broome and it would have been ugly and ordinary would classified as natural disaster.

if it makes it that far, the low over the nt is currenlty predicted by ec to turn into a severe tropical cyclone off the wa coastline

Far out. I just had a look at EC breezer. Might stand to watch this one a little more seriously now. Midget Mitchell could have potential. Rosita was the last April Midget April 19th CAT 5.

GFS has this system forming quite nicely well to the north of WA next week. Beyond this their 16 day forecast has it continueing West and slowly recurving and dissapating well to the Nth of Exmouth. Will be interesting to see if it eventuates as they say.

EC model has a reasonably weak system and it shows a slight weak development chance out in the Indian Ocean before again dissapating. I think the jet stream and shear values once this LOW/Cyclone heads south will spell its demise before getting anywhere near the coast.

Well maybe this season isn't quite Finished.

Will be sitting in the backgrounds watching this one.

GFS is really pushing late for this system. Strange start to the dry so far here in Broome. Easterlies usually crank during the early mornings but they are only really picking up around 11am and easing a few hours later?? Which is Different!!

I don't think this system will effect anywhere in Australia but waiting for one of those NWest cloud bands to roll through over ther next few weeks. I wonder if a system like this can create a nice moist flow down over the Kimberly and through central Australia and down into SA and VICO.

Hey Popeye,
EC deterministic is bullish on a similar situ. As to if it spins up beyond a marginal low, who knows... certainly worth keeping an eye on tho.
Is this our last blast?
BTW... the predict on this is that it will cross the coast.

yeah been keeping an eye on this for a few runs of gfs. They seem to have it moving back into the goc now?

We may be talking about two different systems TC. GFS deterministic is below (ensemble has it as well but to a lesser degree).
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...&ARCHIV=0&RES=0