Here your next update cyclone 28 little more update news on the developing Tropical low.

Will be good to see something in the southern hemisphere to kick off the season even though it may be drifting off into the abyss of the Central Indian Ocean. Im not all that convinced myself now of any follow up systems developing in our region after this. May not coincide with the right ingredients to kick something off. Things may change but fingers crossed we can get something sooner or later to keep our eyes on and talk about. If we have to wait until Jan for some decent rains I'll go troppo. Saying that though beautiful weather here in Broome today nice and cool at 35 degrees at the moment lol.

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Saturday the 3rd of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Tuesday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low has developed near 08S 097E. The low is expected to drift south of
10S into the Western Region during Sunday. It should then move westwards, and is
expected to pass west of 090E during Monday. The low may develop into a cyclone
during Monday or Tuesday, but is likely to remain below cyclone strength until
it moves west of 090E.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Sunday :Low
Monday :Moderate
Tuesday :Low [out of the area]

That should put that around the 999hap or the 998hap or the 995hap The low Saturday night or during Sunday if it go very well or not.

The synoptic weather chart issued by the Thai Meteological Department is useful
http://www.tmd.go.th/en/weather_map.php

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Sunday the 4th of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Wednesday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST a low was located near 11.4S 91.3E. The low is moving towards the
southwest and is likely to cross 90E late Sunday or early Monday. The low may
develop into a cyclone during Monday or Tuesday west of 90E. The system may
re-enter the Western region during Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Monday :Low [out of area]
Tuesday :Low [out of area]
Wednesday :Moderate

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 94.2E TO 13.6S 88.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 032030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 93.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
93.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION OVER AN INCREASINGLY MORE
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (031216Z
SSMIS AND 031604 AMSU) SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, VWS SHOULD
RELAX AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT TROPICAL CYCLONE (35 KNOTS) DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 18 TO 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 26-
27 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1000
MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA INDICATING 30 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS, AND AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

General consensus is that it will certainly develop but the upper level trough building in the lower Indian Ocean will kill it well before it gets to Exmouth

Yeah looks to be that way Boomer. This time last year one of the first of the season LOWS crossed down in around Exmouth/Carnarvon and gave them their 1 in a 100 year floods. The chances of that happening again are very slight. Maybe some high whispy clouds with a little drizzle.

I hope it can maintain itself in a reasonable fashion before getting ripped apart to at least give the Gascoyne something just to settle everything in before a scorching summer. Good to be able to atleast follow something this early in the season.

Popeye, Already been there mate. I was in Fiji recently and dodged that low in mid Nov, well I caught part of it (ended up being a JTWC medium). Bring it on... but please nothing like earlier this year for FNQ (or 100 year floods for EX and Carnarvon... but I truly doubt they will get anything in regard to this event).

Looks like it has formed and will ultimately end up in OZ AOR.... that's numero uno
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0112.gif
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM WEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 042325Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE 042332Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 01S IS
LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, BUT
OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF JAKARTA INDONESIA. TC 01 IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
BEFORE AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 TO 72 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
RECURVATURE AND OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 042021Z DEC 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 042030) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:18pm WST on Monday the 5th of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Thursday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST Monday, a tropical low was located near 12.2S 87.9E. The low is
expected to develop into a tropical cyclone to the west of 90E during Monday.
The system is expected to remain west of 90E on Tuesday but is likely to move
into the Western region as a cyclone during Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low [out of area]
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.

Looking like the system wll be named "Alenga" by LaReunion RMSC, both JTWC and La Reunion forecast tracks now showing that scenario.

Here's the Frenchie Track-


JTWC can be found HERE (as if anyone didn't know! )

Man, I love the descriptions. BOM and JTWC could take some style lessons, both lyrically and graphically, from these guys.
So Alenga (Angela) gets to cat 3.

This thing, based on the JTWC report "could" go Cat 4... 65 knot winds already anticipated and its moving fast.
What happens later depends on how intense it is when it turns (and where that turn is based on the speed).

REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM WEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 050238Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
050013Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWS 50-55 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
THE 050530Z KNES SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
EVIDENT MICROWAVE EYE. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS CONFIRMS THAT TC 01S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 01S IS
LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, BUT
OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ET BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE
ET BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF RECURVATURE AND OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24. HOWEVER,
TRACK SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO CAPTURE THE
ACCELERATED ET TRANSITION THAT SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

Shes developing nicely, any links for satellites of that area?




Antonio.

BOOMER! thank you very much

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Tuesday the 6th of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Friday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 8am WST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located near 12.8S 86.9E, moving
southwest at 9 kilometers per hour. The cyclone is likely to move towards the
southeast and enter the Western region on Wednesday before weakening during
Thursday or Friday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
Friday :Low

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.