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#1051885 - 04/01/2012 18:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
There is a significant cut-off low to pass below Vic next weekend, this may bring thunder to Vic and potentially damaging wind to campers on Vic's holiday coastal areas. I believe the interstate moderators will now allow a Victorian to start a thread for this event. Could someone please do so?

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#1051894 - 04/01/2012 18:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Matt Pearce Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/01/2001
Posts: 4437
Loc: Kariong, NSW
Petros

There is no distinction between moderators/admin based in Victoria and moderators/admin based in other states. All moderators/admin are tasked with the duty of upholding the guidelines of the Weatherzone Forum. If you feel that this is not occurring, then please take this up privately with admin (you can PM me directly). No further public commentary on matters of moderation will be tolerated.

You are equally as entitled to start a thread as any other forum member, so I encourage you to do so.

Thanks

Matt


Edited by Matthew Pearce (04/01/2012 18:51)

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#1052022 - 05/01/2012 09:06 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Petros
....Something to watch also, is the lick of cold air (blue line) that has the potential to splash up near Vic circa next Tuesday. That would re-invigorate the cut-off low shown below.......



This is EC's take on the prospect......


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#1052175 - 05/01/2012 19:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EC (ALONE) is continuing to flirt with a major ECL mid (now later) next week - BUT it hasnt agreeement with other models... (mind you if it came off it would be significant weather!


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#1052211 - 05/01/2012 20:40 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
[edit] (why cant we please have a decent edit time?) - sorry Ruckle, should have added this post to your current thread as its simply an extension of what you have been progging in the current weather thread.

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#1052568 - 06/01/2012 19:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 334
Loc: Kyabram
why not write a reply in word/notepad and then cut n paste when ready?

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#1052571 - 06/01/2012 19:25 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: liberator]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Because edits aren't from the original post, sometimes you just change your mind about something.

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#1052581 - 06/01/2012 20:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: liberator
why not write a reply in word/notepad and then cut n paste when ready?


You are spot on, a lengthy post just yesterday made me think of it.

But why do I have to?

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#1053286 - 08/01/2012 22:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Looks like a major rainfall event could take place next week.

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#1053291 - 08/01/2012 23:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Looks like a major rainfall event could take place next week.


Yes, Ant. All fairly far out and the models only vaguely coinciding but ... ACCESS has (around the 18th) a major trough linking to a low in Bass Strait; CMC indicates (at about the 14th) moisture streaming in from the west from a low in central WA and (presumably) flowing on westwards in the following couple of days; and GFS (again around the 18th) showing a trough from NW into Vic.

CMC, in fact, has been going back and forth with its scenario fairly consistently over the past few runs

Long way out but there seems some level of convergence of models.

Is this what you're looking at?

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#1053292 - 08/01/2012 23:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: ThunderBob]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Yep, ofcourse lots of things can change and will change in the next week.

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#1053664 - 09/01/2012 17:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Whatever the synoptics, (GFS and AccG differ in scenario) - it does look likely that there will be some rain around Vic on 18/1/12 at this stage smile

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#1053679 - 09/01/2012 18:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6464
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Interesting possibilities next week at this stage, particularly western partsof the state. Country does look to be loading up for a good one again. Will be interesting to see how it all looks model wise by the weekend.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1054070 - 10/01/2012 18:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Petros
The similar scenario continues for next weekend/early week after..
the next chance of storms and some rain.

Something to watch also, is the lick of cold air (blue line) that has the potential to splash up near Vic circa next Tuesday. That would re-invigorate the cut-off low shown below.......




Just a reminder, to myself, ignore GFS 8 day pedictions at your peril.... (we are now looking at 2 days of snow in Vic Mid-January!!!


Edited by Petros (10/01/2012 18:58)

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#1055241 - 12/01/2012 18:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
It looks like the moisture ex TC Heidi will be pushed into the bight by the high pushing into Vic atm.

So in terms of next week (18/1/12) - I'd say our rain prospects now are tied to the possibility of an ECL to crab down our way from NSW.....

Heres CMC's view:


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#1055625 - 13/01/2012 18:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Yes lots of moisture around for next week, and will be very warm.

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#1055656 - 13/01/2012 20:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
CMC is continuing to flirt with an ECL moving downwards along the NSW coast ....but it is pretty much alone.....



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#1055665 - 13/01/2012 20:43 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 742
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
GFS has been progging some nice instability for middle/late next week for a few runs now. We are due for a storm outbreak, so something to keep an eye on.
_________________________
OzStorms | GT Photography

Springfield Weather Obs

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#1055674 - 13/01/2012 21:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Mezo]
Bulos Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/01/2011
Posts: 273
Loc: Donvale
Originally Posted By: Meso7
GFS has been progging some nice instability for middle/late next week for a few runs now. We are due for a storm outbreak, so something to keep an eye on.


Agree Meso, GFS extended have hinted that unstable/humid conditions return for a rather prolonged period. High pressure systems not at all strong with troughs starting to dip further south again. Nothing record breaking, however a good photo op for you! smile

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#1055689 - 13/01/2012 22:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Bulos]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 742
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Yeah late Jan/early Feb is traditionally when we will get another burst of unstable weather so my fingers are crossed. I'm in dire need of a good chase, got a 4 day wknd for Australia day, so Im hoping like crazy something lines up around then!
_________________________
OzStorms | GT Photography

Springfield Weather Obs

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