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#1055768 - 14/01/2012 08:10 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Mezo]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6464
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
CMC still has Petros's ECL but no one else interested too much. GFS persisting with stormy times next weekend. EC not greatly interested, will be interesting given GFS persistence to see how the weekend of 21/22 actually turns out.
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#1055842 - 14/01/2012 11:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Ruckle]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2769
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Can't help but feel a 'tweak' in 'me waters' that Tuesday arvo (17th)(and poss. Wedneday) will be interesting in Melb./eastish. Might get a pleasent surprise; more photo and vid opportunities; ducks delighted and it's all a hunch of course.
Watching the movement of the sat. animation and adding a couple of other observations together, I hope I shall not shame myself with this 'prediction' smile
Oh, and Saturday will be a real doozy I reckon. crazy

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#1056020 - 14/01/2012 18:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: duckweather]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Will be very hot and unstable conditions, and it doesn't look like it will end soon. GFS has the red line all the way up past Victoria on Sunday and Monday, ACCESS not even in Victoria, still looks like above average temperatures for much of February.


Edited by TheAnt (14/01/2012 18:07)

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#1056587 - 15/01/2012 19:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
It all looks like a hotch-potch out there for next 10 days to me for Vic, variance in models, chance of a couple of brief hot weather day-pairs, or conditions conjucive of forming an easterly dip scenario, or the potential E Aus easterly moisture to providing an unlikely ECL at the NSW coast......

All stirred up by the recent WA cyclone imo and surely the uncertaintly will result in another cyclone showing up in the next 3-4 days of model runs to present itself next weekend.

I reckon we will have an easterly dip scenario in place to give us a wet weekend next week/early week after to alarm those in N Vic (fresh memories of this time last year) - not a record breaker but significant summer rain.


Edited by Petros (15/01/2012 19:47)

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#1058061 - 18/01/2012 18:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
That speculated on-and-off NSW coastal cut-off low scenario just wont go away - not progged to affect Vic atm, but fascinating to see such a hard to predict (small scale system) nibbled at by various models circa 7-8 days ahead of its (possible) inception.

Heres AccR for tomorrow....

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#1058533 - 19/01/2012 20:47 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Persistant succession of weak highs in our latitude look to be preventing the chance of a decent trough to dally between them in the outlook. The set-up is doing its best to provide an easterly dip situation for Vic but the high pressure belt is winning out atm.

NSW ECL prospects are now just a rainy area moving out to sea.

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#1058920 - 20/01/2012 20:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
"out there" AccessG has muddled this prospect out in "interstate moderators hatred distance".....



Now these prospects are what keeps weatherzoners like Petros interested! :0

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#1058984 - 20/01/2012 22:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
There could be some very large rainfall going into next week thats for sure.

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#1059007 - 20/01/2012 23:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2871
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
whats the hell of hot day and very cool night now is 16.7 makes me feel warm cloths...
blame cool SE wind over nite then NE day time...

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#1059017 - 20/01/2012 23:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Were probably only a degree or two above that CA, a mild summer will be recorded if this trend lasts much longer.

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#1059377 - 21/01/2012 19:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Someone please help me with the ACCESS models, Sunday its showing the red line near the antarctic, but on Tuesday there's some very cold air approaching Melbourne. Just a glitch in the system?

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#1059393 - 21/01/2012 19:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good pickup Ant, looks like AccG is a bit broken in terms of the upper air temperature line colours in its runs for later next week.

Just scanned all the WZ model outlooks from now to end of there runs. What a hotspotch! In a nutshell, its "anything goes" in the upper 1/2 of Aust and cool cloudy outlook for Vic?

What do others reckon?

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#1059632 - 22/01/2012 09:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Completely changed now and looks like some good rain for the east.

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#1059988 - 22/01/2012 19:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still a hotspotch imo, interesting that CMC is now agreeing with AccG's same scenario for next weekend that it did 2 days ago ....


Edited by Petros (22/01/2012 19:50)

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#1060880 - 23/01/2012 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Wow look at Sunday and Monday on the ACCESS models! Funny because it's normally GFS predicting the overly large rainfall, obviously it will change HEAPS over the next week but something to look out for.


Edited by TheAnt (23/01/2012 18:55)

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#1060993 - 23/01/2012 20:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 436
Loc: Stewarton


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I know early days, but Sunday could be a little interesting.

Shall be interesting to see what the models look like at the end of the week.


Edited by thunderunder (23/01/2012 20:16)

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#1061378 - 24/01/2012 08:19 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: thunderunder]
Bulos Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/01/2011
Posts: 273
Loc: Donvale
GFS & ACCESS continue the same train of thought this morning.
Still a little way off firing a new thread up, but Sun/Mon certainly look like the days where this run of great weather could break.

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#1062179 - 24/01/2012 19:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Bulos]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
ACCESS continuing on a good 10-30 mm.

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#1062245 - 24/01/2012 19:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wow at GFS for NSW Sunday for NSW. Progged to move ESE off NSW coast before affecting Vic.....


.... but what if it didnt?

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#1062262 - 24/01/2012 20:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Bulos]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Bulos
.......Still a little way off firing a new thread up, but Sun/Mon certainly look like.......


5 days out now Bulos NOBODY should critise you from starting a new thread on these possible outcomes.

Remember we are doing this for fun, interest and shared learning - not to be "discovered as the next future budding oooba-accurate weather forecaster" hoping to get recognised like a budding beauty model. smile

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