About time to start a whole new thread to cover what might be a pretty unusual week for rain/storms and a turnaround in the warm remps we've been having in Nov.

All the models giving the CT's a pretty damp week with temps (at times) reminiscent of late August or early September.

With many areas inland suffering rainfall deficiencies this could be very welcome. For areas approaching wheat stripping etc - it might be less welcome.

This was certainly a welcome sight on a Monday morning

Aaah but many others who hate rain won't be happy.

Certainly possible it will be dampish.

About 21 to 22 degrees in Bx - radar shows areas of showers to our north west and slowly heading this way.

I'm hoping the SE gets a good dose of rain. It's still dry here. I was digging in the garden during the heavier of the showers on Sunday, and was saddened to see how dry it was just an inch or two down. We need a lot. Forecast isn't fizzling for us yet!

Unfortunately ant it looks like the best of the rain will stay to the north of your location and south-east NSW, at least over the next 4 days.

The trough will be near stationary in a line from around the illawarra up to the north-west corner of NSW, with the best falls occuring along and north of this line according to most models. I certainly wouldn't rule out some showers or rain although like i said, better falls will occur to the north.

Later in the week (Friday, Saturday) there is an indication there could be some good falls down your way, although its a bit too far out to know for certain and models are still chopping and changing. Certainly an interesting week coming up though

An area of rain out to the NW, maybe some embedded storms as well,looks to be moving SE down into the Hunter later,should be a wet night.

Work christmas party supposed to be an outdoors affair on friday. Forecast for Bowral suggests we should plan for it to be indoors. But not all bad, garden needs a drink.

Bugger, everything's gone south and north of us lately, and this one too? Heartbreaking.

Glad you started this thread DAVEM, i would of otherwise! I saw forecast and thought, what a wet week.. Nice rain falling now, will hang around by the looks of sat pic and radar.! Im working tonight 10pm, see how busy it will be !

Should see some good falls from this.

Dave
Bathurst

Amazing what can happen when the LWT moves from SW WA .

Moderate to heavy rain here, easing off now has been going for 1 hour.10 mms.so far.

Certainly a good cool spell coming up, models have a pretty decent cold change to put the icing on the cake at the end of the model runs for about the 30th.
Quite solid rain has set in now, but it will ease and return at least 3 or 4 times over the next week and get heavier in the subsequent events especially Friday night/Saturday and then next week ahead of the strong cold front. Looking good for reaching the monthly average now.

Just starting to rain here atm and the radar is filling in nicely. The sat pic look’s very promising with almost all of NSW covered in cloud and that trough lingering around. The forecast look’s good as well even though that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Look’s like some interesting days ahead.
I hope well get a drowning here.

rain is sticking just to my north, and i mean just. Been a couple km north of me for the last couple hours and the way it looks on radar, it will stay that way (and actually get further away). so close, yet so far...for now.

Rain has been falling here for about 40 minutes, now up to 2mm.

Hoping the trough comes a bit further south to give everyone a drink before it retreats to the north-east.

I am a little puzzled how Orange managed to avoid the rain, even Bathurst is very low. I have 21.8mm so far, up here in the high areas near Yetholme. All fell nice and steady over many hours.

Nice work Peter. Even managed 7.2mm over here on the other side of the range (Penrith)! Not sure why Orange, Bathurst and Katoomba all have such low totals. Oh well, plenty of time left in this event to make up for it. Will be good to get some decent falls to round out the month. Might even crack the average across the CT's. Still another 40 odd mm required across most parts of Sydney so a good chance of having an average Novemeber, rainfall wise at least.

Sat pic is looking the goods but remains to be seen were and for how long this trough will stall. So many times this exact scenario has failed to deliver due to simple timing and topographic effects. Hopefully it doesnt scoot off to the N or the E before generating some decent inflows into the catchment.

So far here at Shellharbour a big fat ZERO. To tell the truth it looked more like rain yesterday than today. Yesterday had a dull two layer overcast with a persistent NE wind. Today it is just the mid level cloud and lighter winds.

southern highlands missed out rain so far, fingers crossed for today.

Yep Bathurst has inherited the storm/rain shield this year. The models tell us 20 - 40mm but I'm fairly skeptical of that. About 6mm since it started - with this set up I'd have expected at least double that. The gutters are not really running - at least rain is sinking in - not running off.

The 7 day panel for Bx has been telling me a number of times we're going to get quite wet but each time so far our rain has been grossly overestimated.

Fingers still crossed. Yes PD that change at the end looks good. Also today, snow on the peaks in Tas - some of that coolness should cool us down further the next couple of days.

34mm at my place overnight in Newcastle and 1465mm YTD.

Most of the stations in this area have a long term average of ~1150mm per year, so it would seem it's been pretty wet on the coast of late.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=6month&area=ns

I had so little faith in rain that I continued spraying St Johns Wort last night. Got about half an acre done. Sunny cool morning (the best sort) here, but the low cloud is moving in and it's already quite dull. Quite a bit of moisture north of us, we'll see if it gets here.

Geez Slotmachine - in Bathurst we have only got a bit over 530mm ytd - huge difference. Our annual avge is approx 630 or so mm.

Looks like it's darker to our west so hopefully rain will get heavier instead of 5 spits to the acre.

Good drop there slotmachine.
21mm overnight here in Tea Gardens. Quite a humid NE seabreeze is going here atm, not overly strong.
Once again the Newy radar has gone missing in action again.

Models pointing now to trough really deepening into a low over southern NSW. If this happens we may finally see a proper rain event for a fair bit of the State. Been a long time since we've seen this type of event around here.

yeah MT. rain fell the other side of lake but not even a drop this side!

it is precipitating down these parts atm..heavier then drizzle but barely enough to use wipers.


edit: got heavier as we neared warrawong. enough for the wipers to be in the low setting whilst moving anyways

I wonder if there's a small chance of storms this evening? We're right on the edge of the cloudmass in Sydney and 850 temps are warm until later this afternoon. Storms, along with temps in the high 20's, are mentioned in the Hunter forecast

The latest WZ news commentary is optimistic for rain but I'm surprised we didn't get what was predicted (I know some parts further north got a good soak).

This upper system looks to me like it's one that the modelling is going to have a lot of trouble with.

And looks like this week is just a blip with more heat building for next week and Perth gets the LWT yet again. I wonder when this El-Nino like pattern will break down.

Heat yet we have possible snow forecast for thursday. Hmm be good if you can at least provide a source where this El Nino is because i certainly can't see one.

Didn't say there was a Nino (soi is in Nina territory), but we are seeing some symptoms that are more representative of El Nino, the most stark of which being the lack of rain in QLD. Not sure if El Nino tends to swing the odds to cooler wetter conditions in SW WA. I'm hoping this will break in the new year.

This week will be cool, yes, but this weekend the heat is back and looks like continuing into the new week.

Bathurst and a number of other areas are well below avge rainfall and we have mainly experienced a few isloated but heavy brief rain events instead of more regular rainfall.

Other areas are well above with rain (eg Newcastle) - it depends where you are as to your viewpoint. Technically there is no El Nino but some areas feel like it should be called one because that's how it feels to some areas.

Having said all that - it is very persistent light rain now in Bx and looks set in. I hope we get at least 20mm.

Lets see, cold, loads of moisture, thick cloud covering half the country, widespread rain coming up, possible flooding, possible snow. Not one single symptom of El Nino. And there is no heat to be seen with this upper low stuck over the SE. Doing some research before you post helps alot

That's why I said this week is a blip, one swallow does not make a summer (or a spring even). Lets see how things pan out Father Ron Downe. No heat to be seen? You gotta be kidding, most of the east is running 2C above average this month!

Obs hill November Max Average: 23.6C

Forecast for next 4 days

Today: 21C
Tomorrow: 19C
Thursday: 19C
Friday: 21C

Almost 4C below average

Nice troll attempt S4S, but it doesn't change any facts

Obs Hill November 2011 Minima:

average this month
18.0°C
(+2.4°C)
long-term average
15.6°C

Obs Hill November 2011 Maxima:

average this month
25.5°C
+1.9°C
long-term average
23.6°C

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/nsw/sydney/sydney

Yes, those averages will go down a touch this week but not enough for us to fall below average by any stretch. With a few hot days to end the month I'd expect the final washup will be similar to the above.

Bathurst is running almost 3 degrees above avge max for November - this week won't bring it back to avge. We are also running above avge for nights for November. October was also above avge. You're talking about 1 week we are talking about longer periods.

1 week is all it takes for a swing in weather patterns, with La Nina further strengthening it'll only get colder as we head further into summer, this will knock averages right down into the negatives. This cold spell is just the beginning

Yikes, I didn't realise Bathurst was at +3C. November 2009 had a +7.8C anomaly** thanks to the heatwave (only -0.3C short of an all time anomaly record for any site in Australia!)... don't think it will be surpassed this month .

SZ, I hope you're right.

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs19b.pdf

Looks like the rain band has moved south of Sydney,I thought it might have intencifyed here in the Hunter today.sun is out at the moment and it is humid with high cloud around,with this heat I am waiting to see if any storms develop later on,if they do they will have to develop to my NW to be in line with me,17 mms last night.

About 8 to 9mm since 9am - wind is in SW sort of direction which makes it quite cool in the wind and you get wet.

Now just over 10mm but Orange has had 29 and most of that really go going about noon onwards. It's another reminder of how much landform plays in rainfall.

Orange seems to do best in these NW rain scenarios, really need another radar in that area to provide an accurate picture as Terrey Hills doesn't quite cut it once you get past Oberon/Bathurst. Mt. Canobolas might also produce some wide variations in rainfall across a small area- I'd expect the lee side around Spring Hill/Cadia would receive less than west Orange. I think we've also observed this in snow events, but these are more south-westerly.

Looks like a small cell developing west of Colo Heights with some more further "up the line" east of Kandos.

First cells of the day going up across the basin, getting dark near the coast.

Looking south at the moment ... looks very dark ... not quite storm like though.

Streets lights on and medium rain here now.

Brad - Orange gets about 40 to 50% more rain than Bx per year. I think it's really down to orographic uplift, air coming over the lower country to the west then having quite a sudden rise from about 300 - 400m asl to a tableland that's near 1000m with higher peaks.

Bathurst sits in the bottom of a "bowl" (albeit a high altitude bowl - around 700m) surrounded by much higher ranges. All the high country around us is much wetter than Bathurst (Orographics and all round sort of rainshadow)

Certainly a nice little downpour here, 8mm in last 15mins, i was frustrated when i got home from work and we still hadnt got a drop here with the rain all to the south, but i couldnt see the forest for the trees, the heavier lines forecast for Hunter at northern edge of the cloud mass now affecting further south too, i hope a train of these continue all afternoon although they probably will edge into central coast/hunter, no thunder here, but big drops in the rain

Cold wet and windy is the go now.. could get a rumble from the cells to the N but they look a bit disorganized. Only 16C at Penrith at 4:30pm, not much in the way of heat there

Some nice loud thunder from that cell near Bulahdelah, looking dark up that way too!!

Southerly change has come through bringing in heaps of unwanted scud, at least the change is not overly strong wind wise that is.

After the initial heavy burst of 8mm in 15mins its settled into light to occ moderate rain, up to 12.5mm, so only 4.5mm in last 100mins

Hot sunny day at taree today 31deg max saw the buladelah cell building this arvo we i went through buladelah. I think it would of been quick and localised.A few cells near cessnock starting to fire.

Um what upper low over the south east?? 500 temps look pretty stable to me

We got some rain, wow. From sometime in the early afternoon, up til an hour or so ago. Light stuff, but steady. Temperature really lowered, too, and barely any wind. The band looks to have shuffled off east and I'm not confident of getting more.

We had about 39mm since 9am yesterday - Unbelievable!!!

All steady soaking rain - no heavy bursts - been a long long time since I've seen such a nice soak.

Quite cool here too (11) actually sitting at the desk with a vest on.

Still light rain ongoing but cloud looks to be a bit lighter. We may get another 5mm or so if we get lucky.

Be interesting to see how the trough/low develops again for Thurs/Fri.

ANT - glad you got a bit of rain too - you might get a bit of a thumping with this next setup.

Nice ant, have had 30+mm basin wide in the past 24 hours. I would expect at least that much again over the next few days so November looking to be a fair bit above average in the end. Was looking a bit dry for a while there though.

Still steadily coming down here in Penrith. GFS and AXS now progging the low to form just off the south coast friday afternoon. Depending on how strong and where the low actually forms, sthn tablands could see some decent 24h totals over friday-sat, possibly some minor flooding IMO. Remains to be seen.

We might get more? AWESOME! Amazing night, it was not cool, it was downright cold. hard to imagine I was overheating on Saturday. Had to put my little fleece rug over the doona. Quite a nice cool easterly still going this morning, and the planes are landing from the NW. No more precip, but I'll live in hope now. We really need this. And so good to hear people getting rain who need it. I'm a bit sorry for the grain guys though, this is getting to be a habit, they get the growing rain, but then they get it near harvest, too.

Interestingly in that 24 hour period I had only 35mm, so less than Bathurst. But had more before anyway.
Certainly very cool at only 8.4 up here.
Also first month over 100mm now since March.

Rain has just started here (about 10-15 mins ago). There's a huge blob of green and yellow on the Namoi radar so maybe we will have rain all day.

This event is remarkable for its consistency across a wide area. Almost everywhere in Sydney in the 30-40 mm range, a tad more in elevated spots and on the CTs. 36 mm in my suburb.

Snow Gypsy, the band is moving north so the NTs and north coast should get their turn soon as it clears here this afternoon. Obs Hill has already gone past its November average.

Relentless rain for the past 20 hours over the basin, and much more to come with a train of activity just rebuilding to the west. Models have now taken any heat out of the equation with numerous fronts smashing the SE after this event

PD we've only had about 75mm mtd (against your 100+ but that is actually ABOVE AVGE (ripper) not often we can say that this year. We are now closeish to ytd avge for rain (even though it's been a LUMPY rain event year).

I suspect we have turned a bit of a corner and I now believe we can actually get rain again instead of always missing out.

I've been looking for a cooler period to balance out the above average months (temps) we've been having. Maybe that is coming. Which is what I believe Sub Zero was getting at a day or two ago.

ANT if the low pushes across to the coast - I think you might see decent rain from the coming event. Fingers crossed.

We are currently in Wee Waa NSW and have had steady rain/drizzle since about 0200 this morning, just under an inch so far in our rain guage. And its now picking up intensity. Just a little bit damp here right now :-)

So why has this particular trough caused rain, when other troughs in the past that are sitting in the middle of the country havent caused rain?? So not all troughs create rain?? It cant be the upper atmosphere as the temps seem to be stable over NSW??

My best guess is it's the interaction between the trough line and the HPS ... Luck of the draw I guess. have had another 15mm since my last post, its fair bucketing down! send me floaties

Must be bucketing on the northern beaches, already 14mm at Terrey hills with a tropical 14-15C across the basin.

Hello Necani - my daughter lives in Wee Waa. Stay away from the Black Soil

Glen weather is made up of MANY factors and the existence of one thing/factor is often not enough but the more factors or ingredients added in then the more likely it is you will get rain and how much rain you get.

If it was simple, the forecasts would never be wrong.

Also, I've moaned heaps about not getting rain in Bathurst on many occasions BUT - at that same time OTHER places have received rain. So some troughs might leave us dry but give other places some rain - maybe it was just our turn, so it was POSITIONED in an area that better suited where we live.

Keep reading and watching - by the time you get to my age you might also understand a bit more. It's a life long learning process for all of us. Mother Nature does not let her secrets out very easily.

Thanks for the tip Dave :-D
And yes you are quite correct, guesswork gets us nowhere with these things. I am from a part of WA that brews up summer storms daily in Jan-Mar. Mostly they push eastwards out over the bush country, though some do break over the agricultural land.. very hard to predict as well.

32mm's to 9am and a further 9mm's since here. Wasn't expecting the rain to hang around as long as this.

Intereseting to see some showers also streaming in from the south-east amongst the rainband.

We have had 72.9mm here in Lithgow since Sunday afternoon.Looks like it's just about over for now though. Still, a good drop for us!
Brian.

Boy Ducksta - that's a lot more than Bathurst - You may need webbed feet to go with the name.

68mm for the event here in nw metro, the dam shouldve done quite well out of this.

I've had 63 mm's since 3pm yesterday. Wonderful.
Vegies are growing like triffods!!!

Homer.

Quag - the thing is that much of the rain was so steady that runoff may not have been a feature in many areas. Lithgow had about 30mm more than Bathurst so maybe that area is producing runoff.

Certainly won't hurt dam levels that's for sure.

Homer - mowing will need to be upped as well.

Tell me about it!! I mowed on Sunday, and it's ready to be done again.
With the forecast the way it is, it may have to wait another 5 days.

Homer.

The ground must have been pretty dry here because this morning it wasn't soggy underfoot. However this afternoon it's starting to get a bit slushy. 52mm since 9am yesterday.

36.5mm til 9am here. 18.1mm since then.

No rain here today, or any sign of it. And now, since early evening, we have a really savage south easterly buster, it was going over 50 earlier, now it dies right down and then roars back up into the 30s like it's on a timeclock. That wind is cold, too.

Light rain again at the moment in Bathurst - cool easterly. Should be pretty fresh in places like Oberon/Blackheath/Lithgow this morning between rain and quite cool winds.

Models seem to be pushing this trough/low more towards a Coastal event - interesting to see what the next updates bring. CMC gives the SE of NSW a pounding.

Well the rain really came down last night !$! TORENTIAL!! I want more!!!! hehe!! B Factor needs to be met!!

Was reading the weather section in the daily telegraph earlier in the week, and it states that this rain event was caused by upper disturbance over western australia which made the jet stream stronger which gave it more strength to push moisture to the east coast.
I'm learning something everyday, so this jet stream there talking about plays a part in our rainfall?? How come Adelaide and Melbourne don't seem to get this type of rainfall compared to Sydney and Brisbane??

105mm to 9am at Guyra, is a new record for November

That icy SE wind is still at-it, although not as violent as last night, with low-level cloud. Quite excited at the prospect of more rain! Last lot was in the lower single figures. Follow-up would be perfect.

You beat me to the rain report Snowflurries. The long-term average rainfall for November is 100.0mm over 12 days. With more rain to come we should set a new November record.

It was just fabulous steady rain yesterday. I haven't seen rain like this since I was a little girl !!!

33mm for me yesterday and its another drizzly day today. Would be nice to get some sun.

Looks like the rain band has moved back over the Sydney metro area again after retreating late yesterday, with the rain being back seriously from tonight. Looks OK in Sydney from Sunday to Wednesday ('OK' = lots of breaks in the cloud and nothing falling out of the sky). After that it looks a bit doubtful. Also, weather patterns like the current trough seem to repeat - whatever causes them doesn't go away fro a while. If this is correct, I wouldn't be surprised if the lead up to XMAS turned out to be cool and wet for the NSW coast. Given that and the La Nina, if I were a gambler (which I'm not)I'd bet that Monday Nov 14 will be the hottest day at Observatory Hill this summer.

Occasional moderate showers comeing through Bx on and off. Prob about 6mm since 9am.

Looks like clearing up then gives us another dose.

This one event took us from being well behind the ytd to just slightly in front now. Wonderful.

Ant - surely your turn is coming.

look at that giant sheet of rain moving south east from the narabri radar, somewhere along the new south wales coast is going to get very wet later tonight, not to mention the stuff building behind it on the warrego radar

Getting a few light showers atm. Looks like a wet couple of days coming up. Might put a halt on harvest for a few days.
Duane.

Been out here at Dubbo last night and to night going home tomorrow back to Ellalong near Cessnock in the Hunter,should have a good bit of rain in my gauge when I get home,have had a few heavy showers here but not a big amount,strong easterly here the last couple of days low scud patches moving in fast from east,middle level cloud from NW which the rain is coming from,they are saying heavier rain here tomorrow,looks like a wet trip home,light rain here at the moment.

Very very light "rain" here most of the afternoon and evening, gone now. and the Canberra obs say the easterly is 13 km/hr, well it's 33 up here. Rattling the windows. More rain would be nice.

I dare say this will do some serious damage to this year's crops... Temora's had 40 something mm, Wagga just shy of 20 and I'd say we're sitting on the 30mm+. Every chance wheat, barley and oats will shoot in the head now; not what we wanted a repeat of!

Not the best timing for this system. 18.9mm at home, and still a while to go yet with the surface low yet to develop. Expecting 50mm+ falls by tomorrow morning.

BW - that was news I was expecting to turn up at some stage during this event. It's not full on flooding like many had last year but it's enough to make the crops shoot in a number of places. 2 years in a row for a lot of people when both years promised a recovery is cruel. Those areas where the crops have been coming off may be happy but those just into or awaiting harvest will be worried. Some paddocks will be too muddy to get into for a while.

I imagine most graziers would be happy - at least it helps someone.

It's strange how Sydney can get 5 days straight of rain,but can't get 5 days straight of hot northwesterly winds? Go figure

Yeah, you're right two years in a row is a pretty cruel blow; I'm just glad I don't rely on this fickle weather for a living directly!

I don't imagine anyone has started stripping grain yet. Most were only 1/2 to 3/4 through their canola yesterday before the rain started.

86.7mm from my gauge since this event started.

Blizz, what do you call the start of the event?.
For me it would be;
Sun) 8.6
Mon) 13
Tue) 19.8
Wed) 24.2
Thu) 6.6
Fri) 3.6 (so far) total = 75.8mm

Odd there was not more rain today, looked promising by the models, but I am happy, tank is again at 100% and garden could not be happier and would be happy to take some sun now.

56 MMS in gauge when I got home from Dubbo about 3pm,light rain still falling.

wow. Latest BOM forecast going for anything between 35 and 80 mm's between now and when the rain clears tomorrow.

Homer

Wow, really hope that pans out. Thought the rain would of set in by now but the BOM still seem confident.

They have pushed back the rain a little, saying it will get heavier tonight and ease by mid-day, then clearing in the afternoon. Prior to this afternoons update they were going for a morning clearing.

Yes noticed that on the models. Majority to fall in the wee hours of Saturday morning. I guess the trough was even slower moving than first thought. Meh, have to got to work anyway so long as it clears by Sunday Ill be happy

Rain has set in and about to increase going by radar. What's more interesting is northern NSW sitting under a slow moving blob of very heavy rain.. won't be long before a mod-major flood starts developing in a few places especially around Tamworth. Huge area being affected

Edit: Latest GFS going for widespread 50-150mm now across much of the central coast + N inland followed by yet another trough late next week onwards with more widespread rain and storms. Significant flooding pretty much penciled in now

update from Wee Waa . . .since 2am Weds morning up to 9am this morning 96mm total, and since 9am this morning another inch and its showing no sign of easing.. Been a steady drizzle/rain all day.

Only 6.4mm today in the high CT's east of Bathurst, but what a misty day. Whole day of fog/drizzle, lowest RH of the whole day has been 99%.

I do not expect much more rain out of this, I think I should see a some sunny patches in the morning up here. Even for Sydney I think it will be all over by 9am and getting sunny after that.

The models did not quite get it right for tonight and this afternoon since they showed that I should have got about 40-50mm in the 12 hours up to this evening. But clearly all heavy rain has stayed further NE. Sydney may still get heavy rain tonight but certainly on the lower side of expectations.

Just been up to Port Macquarie for the night - left Newie at 2pm yesterday, hit the drizzle at Karuah, drizzled all the way up, drizzled all night, drizzled all morning, drizzled all the way back today. So for me it's been 28 hours of non-stop drizzle - with no end in sight looking on the radar. The mid-north coast is pretty much saturated by this slow but constant moisture feed.

127.5mm here this week - great time to take 2 weeks off?
On the plus side, walking National Pass today was as stunning as it usually is on a misty rainy day like today.

The wind is really picking up here now. Light showers only however.

Doesn't look like clearing any time soon, heavy rain right across the board and the radar looks terrible.

Sydney is finally in for a real drenching, at least up until noon today, wouldn't be surprised to see falls of 50mm+. Should clear somewhat this afternoon.

Well the rain did get heavy in the end even here with some 40mm overnight.
I imagine the BM waterfalls would be pretty good this weekend, should pay a visit.

another day of grey skies here thus far... though its actually rained a decent amount instead of drizzle! good 50mm + across the region and still more to come. im off to Canberra to visit the family for a couple days..hopefully ill see some Sun!

Penrith up to 50mm so far. Should crack the November daily record at this rate (62mm)

Yes, I might get to the waterfalls myself up here, if I get a chance. Too busy for most of today though.

A total of 134.2mm for this event now, to 8am, with light showers still occuring.

47.5mm for the 23 hours to 8am today.

Thats a good drop Blizz. I have had a total of 110mm, with some form of rain every day for the last 8 days. 33mm on Wednesday was my biggest daily total midnight to midnight reset on my station.

PD - your post yesterday saying it was all over - that's exactly what I thought - had hopes but definitely not expectations for last night. Like you we were awfully near to 40mm o/n.

Wentworth Falls oughta be spraying today for sure.

Ant should be happy - about 40mm down that way finally too.

Boy - what a turnaround in the weather - can't buy a raindrop for ages then it does this. Good ole Mum nature.

All gone now - back edge of all that cloud gone over in a very obvious line - full bly sky now apart from low level evaporation stuff. For us this event is now done.

Well, it looks like the rain has cleared from Sydney's Western Suburbs. Web cam shows it's sunny at Katoomba, RTA wecams seem to show blue sky (hard to tell)in the Western suburbs. Still raining on the North Shore but hopefully only for another hour or so. Will be very glad to see the end of this particular system. We do need the rain, but not spread out over six days. Anyway, it looks as though lots fell where it was needed / appreciated. Looking ahead for Sydney we seem to have a few days of fine warm weather, possibly storms on Wednesday and back to the stygian gloom (although not much rain) with several days of Southerlies / SE from Thursday.

I think most of us are glad to see the end of this system,but is it the end of the rain pattern?? Are we expecting to see sunny skies for the next few months??
I cant understand why the eastern seaboard cant go a long time with out rain??
Sydney had i think 30 rainless days in august 1995,lets hope we can get something like that now

This would almost spell disaster.
After some decent rain leading up to summer there is a lot of fuel around the state.
A few dry windy days and the grass will burn easily.
A larger dry spell and the bush will burn with it like it hasn't in a long time.

Cheers
Mick

http://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/news/2011/Dam-Failure-Evac-Warning-Jerrara-Dam


Small potential it may get a little wetter yet for some.

Cheers
Mick

re Gleno71 - I'm afraid we're on the wrong side of the continent for Mediterranean summers - endless blue skies, dry heat, etc. That's for Perth. Because the subtropical high pressure belt is to the South of the continent in summer, Easterly winds predominate in our latitudes in the warmer months, with brief spells of Westerly and NW from time to time bringing very hot weather to the coast. A typical summer week in Sydney will have: about 2-3 dull overcast days with S-SE winds but often not much rain unless we get a trough system like this week; 2 or 3 mild sunny days with sea breezes but possibly very warm inland; and one or two hot days (tempered by sea breezes) before the next Southerly change arrives, sometimes with rain and stormy weather before and after. Then the cycle kicks off again. In some years the Southerly phase predominates, bringing us a cool wet summer. Hopefully not this year, fingers crossed.

Got lucky enough to film a quite heavy Bridal Veil Falls just before a bunch of noisy folk came along. The raven in the background is lovely:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bx8LRPye1xg

Hope they weren't in the nude this time!!!
Nice to also hear the old Graham Kennedy crow call in the background also.

Homer

Sun finally out after 38 mm of rain overnight from 12am to 8am, thought it was a chance to fo flying with a friend of mine upto Capertee valley, Rylstone and back, only to see winds too strong ( 46km/h) to enable us to take off.! Always another time.

A few cells popping up on radar now, most notably at Cessnock. NE'ly here now which is a bit of a surprise taking the edge of this afternoon's heat.

The cell near Cessnock was red on radar might have been hail,than another cell red on radar passed just S of Cessnock, say 5kms north of me,just missed me and headed SE,now there is more cells developing NW of Cessnock again following the same path.

I did see that first cell from Cessnock, looked fairly dark and had a nice looking rain (or hail) shaft on it but it passed to our south. The second cell is currently overhead, have had a few downpours from it, with some fairly large drops. It has eased back to a light shower now. No rumbles from it, unfortunately

Thanks for sharing that video Blizz, looks good, certainly a solid flow. That must take some work to upload, I certainly would struggle with uploads of video on my wireless internet.

Yes DaveM, that o'night rain was a surprise, there was another 48.8mm after my earlier post bringing the event total to 124.6mm, still less than Blizz though. This November is now on exact par with last year at 168mm.

That cell grabbed me by surprise, spent the most part of the morning fishing over near taree bridge, sunburn got the better of me so headed home just after 130pm with the skies taking on a interesting bank of cu fighting the seabreeze, thunder storms had been on the forecast but thought nothing of it with the seabreeze winning the battle for the best part.. could see the trough edging its way from the northwest, wouldnt have guessed it to stick around soo long when it arrived..

on the way home i swung by knappinhat national park around 2pm to retrieve a few things from my brothers partners car that had a nasty roll over down a 30m steep hill, upon doing that noticed the cell out bulla way and thought nothing of it, knew it was riding the SBF but expected it to stay west of the ranges, little did i know there was a southerly buster heading up the coast and im gathering this gave a brief triple point and gave this monster some short lived life. Come 5pm i ducked out for a smoke and heard a distant rumble and bolted out onto the road for a look, dark and huge flanking line feeing into this thing and it pumped skyward hard and fast, i guess the tops reaching 30+k ft not good with the numbers but it was the highest tops i have seen for a while,. and a thick chunky anvil creeped overhead.. at that time a ewn warning came through my phone and had taree noted for large hail etc, uhmm'd n ahh'd between drooling unsure if it was going to pass over head or to the south, raced up the airport for a better look, was very well scructured for a short time with a small wall cloud getting going and a brief guster.. it ended up passing to the south and raced out to sea at a fast pace but quickly loosing punch as it did,. had a nice lil shelfie for a bit and a nice detached roll cloud, looked really nice with a heavy rain curtain and the rolly rolling along on the outflow boundary under the flank line, very interesting set up!

few photos from the 22nd storm

Finally sort of back online after a nasty pc virus, nothing much else to do other then fix it with the past 4 days of almost constant mizzle! need to get my station set up soon, not sure of the rainfall totals here for the 4 days but would have to nudge close to 150mm or so.

the yard is a swamp, not helping with the king tides! holding the water around..wouldnt say it flooded too much in the area, but hasnt been this much water about since i moved..wasnt here for the earlier floods to compare, high tide mark had the river lapping the banks in taree.

few photos from around the area from the rain

cheers

Hey guys,

Dave (dcon) and myself have been in your green, lush state for the past week and until today; we enjoyed (or was frustrated) by all the rain - Port Macquarie, Northern Sydney, Lithgow and Cowra we have been to, through and stayed at - all rain.

But today. we headed south from Cowra (our base probably until Tuesday) to Junee and Wagga. We have finally got some stuff we primarily came here for!

Good structure, scud, outflow, small hail, gale force winds and some epic crawlers were experience at Junee. We should have some snaps up in a few hours after we get back to Cowra.

Kyle (Max Record)

Has certainly been interesting weather over the past couple of days. Have had 50+mms of rain and looks like some more coming up from the south. Might die off before it gets here though but will get a few showers.
Duane.

Had a good little storm here last night:

Storm approaching Junee by Will Barton Photography, on Flickr
Some pretty strong gusts in it (gusts I'd estimate up to 90km/h), heavy rain and the odd bit of pea size hail.

Yesterday evening (5pm),I noticed some crisp convection about 30kms off the coast of Kiama. I even saw a potential waterspout,though I was so far away to be sure .It was certainly a lovely funnel that was extending from the base half way to the water.Unfortunately I was driving through Berry at the time,so it was hard to find a good vantage point...Besides it was too far to really bother with photos anyway.

Some weak storms eventually developed and these gradually strengthened as they tracked further offshore. They were relatively low topped, but the convection was lovely and crisp thanks to the intruding dry air in the mid levels.




After dark, the small complex of storms were too far for any nice pics, but I still experimented with a few shots. Lightning was frequent, maybe 30-40flashes a minute with some interesting clear airs at times. But as I took this pic, the storm was 220kms from me!!!

I think this is the one we intercepted between Junee and Wagga; this is from south of Wagga:


I got a lucky snap with it:


Seeing as we were in the country of Will, we had a similar view of the next cell that went through Junee:


Then on the back edge of it, the lightning was visible (having been rainwrapped until we rode it out):

Lovely photos, all. Mkeene, are you some kind of uber-photographer? I cannot believe the quality of your shots. That one with the rain in it is fantastic.

Nice catch Max with that storm, hoping for some action Tuesday/Wednesday.

Nice one too Michael, I was apathetic to venture out.